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411’s MMA Roundtable Preview – UFC 195: Lawler vs. Condit
WELCOME:
In what promises to be a war, Robbie Lawler defends his welterweight title against Carlos Condit in the main event of UFC 195! In the co-main event, Andrei Arlovski looks to continue his improbable run to a heavyweight title shot when he faces Stipe Miocic. At welterweight, Albert Tumenov clashes with Lorenz Larkin. Plus, Diego Brandao battles Brian Ortega, Abel Trujillo vs. Tony Sims, and more!
THE STAFF:
THE PRELIMINARY CARD:
First three prelims on UFC Fight Pass, rest on Fox Sports 1.
Welterweight Bout: Edgar Garcia vs. Sheldon Westcott
Jeffrey Harris: Sheldon Westcott Decision
Lorenzo Vasquez III: Sheldon Westcott, Decision
Robert Winfree: Edgar Garcia, Decision
The staff picks Sheldon Westcott, 2-1.
Bantamweight Bout: Joe Soto vs. Michinori Tanaka
Jeffrey Harris: Joe Soto, Decision
Lorenzo Vasquez III: Joe Soto, Decision
Robert Winfree: Michinori Tanaka, Decision
The staff picks Joe Soto, 2-1.
Lightweight Bout: Dustin Poirier vs. Joseph Duffy
Jeffrey Harris: Dustin Poirier, Submission, Round 2
Lorenzo Vasquez III: Joseph Duffy, Decision
Robert Winfree: Dustin Poirier, Submission, Round 3
The staff picks Dustin Poirier, 2-1.
Lightweight Bout: Drew Dober vs. Scott Holtzman
Lorenzo Vasquez III: Scott Holtzman, Decision
Robert Winfree: Scott Holtzman, Decision
The staff picks Scott Holtzman, 2-0.
Strawweight Bout: Justine Kish vs. Nina Ansaroff
Jeffrey harris: Nina Ansaroff, Decision
Lorenzo Vasquez III: Justine Kish, Decision
Robert Winfree: Nina Ansaroff, Decision
The staff picks Nina Ansaroff, 2-1.
Welterweight Bout: Kyle Noke vs. Alex Morono
Jeffrey Harris: Kyle Noke, TKO, Round 1
Lorenzo Vasquez III: Kyle Noke, TKO, Round 1
Robert Winfree: Kyle Noke, TKO, Round 2
The staff picks Kyle Noke, 3-0.
Bantamweight Bout: Michael McDonald vs. Masanori Kanehara
Jeffrey Harris: Michael McDonald, TKO, Round 1
Lorenzo Vasquez III: Michael McDonald, TKO, Round 1
Robert Winfree: Michael McDonald, TKO, Round 1
The staff picks Michael McDonald, 3-0.
THE MAIN CARD:
Lightweight Bout: Abel Trujillo vs. Tony Sims
Jeffrey Harris: To give Trujillo a little credit, his last loss was against a juiced up and doped up Gleison Tibau. Not to mention, he is a dangerous and violent striker, not to mention finisher. I think this is pretty much a get well fight for Trujillo, who is an exciting fighter and fun to watch. Sims is 12-3, but he’s only 1-1 in the UFC, coming off a decision loss to Olivier Aubin-Mercier. I like Trujillo here, hopefully getting this done in true Trujillo fashion.
Winner: Abel Trujillo, TKO, Round 1
Lorenzo Vasquez III: Trujillo is a solid well-rounded fighter. He’s scary and he can be vicious. However, he always seems to lose sight of the big picture. At times he throws strategy right out the door and starts swinging for the fences. At that point, he is still dangerous, but easily defeat-able. Sims is still developing but he is of a more conservative style. If he can avoid going into a panic when Trujillo throws everything out the door, he can counter his way to victory. However, I don’t think Sims is ready to do that. Trujillo will be to much to soon.
Winner: Abel Trujillo, TKO, Round 2
Robert Winfree: Abel Trujillo gets something of a get well fight here after Gleison Tibau’s failed drug test in his last fight, Tony Sims isn’t afraid to throw punches but that’s Trujillo’s world. This one likely ends quickly and violently, which should set the tone for the rest of the evening.
Winner: Abel Trujillo, TKO, Round 1
The staff picks Abel Trujillo, 3-0.
Featherweight Bout: Diego Brandao vs. Brian Ortega
Jeffrey Harris: Diego Brandao is a decent fighter, but he always seems to choke in the big contests. This is what I think will be a very winnable contest for him. Ortega is technically undefeated, but he recently had a submission loss that overturned to a no contest after his opponent failed a drug test. I think Brandao can win here. He’s a dangerous striker, and he also has submission skills as well. If Brandao is prepared, I think he finishes Ortega.
Winner: Diego Brandao, TKO
Lorenzo Vasquez III: Brandao is a sound and powerful striker and he also has a solid submission game. However, he hasn’t been the most reliable fighter and he seems to choke when it’s time to start climbing the ladder. Ortega is an impressive submission artist but his wrestling is lagging behind. His striking game is still raw and developing. He is aggressive and when he can get his opponents where he wants them that aggression works its magic. However, it can get him in trouble. He’s young and he’s developing but showing some good potential. On paper, Brandao, should be able to win this fight, but again, we’re talking about one of the most unreliable fighters in the game. Don’t be shocked if Ortega pulls off another late stoppage.
Winner: Diego Brandao, Decision
Robert Winfree: This is a relatively close fight on paper, while Diego Brandao has more experience he’s consistently struggled when pushed and Brian Ortega could certainly wind up pushing him. Both men have power in their strikes, Brandao will have a slight edge in jiu-jitsu but Ortega can certainly hold his own in the grappling department. I wont be shocked if Ortega gets this one done with a late finish as Brandao slows down in the later rounds, but I think Brandao takes this one.
Winner: Diego Brandao, TKO, Round 1
The staff picks Diego Brandao, 3-0.
Welterweight Bout: Albert Tumenov vs. Lorenz Larkin
Jeffrey Harris: This is a very interesting fight between two strong and rising prospects for the welterweight division. These two men are arguably fringe top 15 guys, and a win here could easily cement a top 15 rankings spot. Tumenov is on an impressive four-fight winning streak. He recently pulled off an impressive upset by dismantling Alan Jouban at UFC 192 in October. Three of his last four wins have come by way of knockout. Larkin had a rough go of it at middleweight in the UFC, but since moving down, he’s looked very strong. He’s knocked out John Howard and Santiago Ponzinibbio. I really like Tumenov right now. He’s well-rounded and he’s got some sick punching power. It will be tough, but I think Tumenov edges this one out.
Winner: Albert Tumenov, Decision
Lorenzo Vasquez III: Larkin has looked impressive since dropping down to welterweight. He is a competent striker who is athletic. His speed and power are impressive and his takedown defense is remarkable. Tumenov has been taking heads since debuting in the UFC. He is a hot prospect and a more conventional striker who can throw some heavy leather. He can fire at his opponents going in or out of the pocket. This should be a competitive fight. Larkin has the speed and diversity to make it his night, but Tumenov is a crafty Russian. This is tough to pick so I’m flipping the coin.
Winner: Albert Tumenov, Decision
Robert Winfree: I really like this fight. Both men are strikers by trade, while Larkin prefers the flashy stuff Tumenov leans on solid fundamentals combined with diversity. Tumenov has been taking names since his debut in the UFC, where he lost a bit of a Clucky decision, and I think he’ll add Larkin to that list. This should be a great fight for fans of technical striking, but I’m just more comfortable with a precise, intelligent, fundamentally sound striker like Tumenov here.
Winner: Albert Tumenov, TKO, Round 3
The staff picks Albert Tumenov, 3-0.
Heavyweight Bout: Stipe Miocic vs. Andrei Arlovski
Jeffrey Harris: Props to Andrei Arlovski because his career has defied the odds, and he’s been on a nice career renaissance in the UFC. This fight might not earn the winner an immediate title shot, but it definitely puts them in a good position. Miocic isn’t the prettiest fighter, but he’s very effective. He has good technical boxing and footwork, and he also is a good wrestler. Miocic is a little more technical, which makes me favor him avoiding an all-out brawl with Arlovski. Arlovski definitely has the power to end this fight with one shot, so it’s definitely possible he can win this. I’m simply leaning more toward Miocic winning a decision here.
Winner: Stipe Miocic, Decision
Lorenzo Vasquez III: Stipe Miocic is on the comeback since losing to JDS and Andrei Arlovski is riding on a huge comeback story of his own. Indeed, had a rematch not been made between Werdum and Velasquez, Arlovski had a strong case as the next rightful challenger to the title. Nonetheless, this is essentially a title eliminator bout. Miocic showed his fortitude in his lose to JDS. It’s a loss that was good for the young fighter. Arlovski is on an incredible winning streak but Miocic is a younger lion on the same level and it may be time for the old lion to step down. Miocic has sound boxing. He can fire in the pocket or at range and his wrestling is strong. Arlovski is a veteran and he is a sound fighter himself, however, Miocic has the right skill set to end Arlovski’s run. Miocic batters Arlovski and scores a TKO in the third.
Winner: Stipe Miocic, TKO, Round 3
Robert Winfree: Heavyweights kind of sucked last year, hopefully these two get things going in a much better direction to kick off this year. Andrei Arlovski’s career resurgence has been remarkable, the way he’s adapted how he fights to match his current skills as he ages should be studied by every aging fighter. Stipe Miocic has been moving up the ranks pretty consistently, he’s got a great mix of wrestling and boxing and actually has good conditioning. If this were a five round fight I’d take Miocic in a heart beat, but it’s only three rounds. Arlovski’s chin is still something of a liability, and while Miocic doesn’t have crushing one punch KO power he’s accurate and persistent with his striking. Arlovski’s takedown defense is good, but Miocic has developed a great ability to disguise his takedowns with his strikes or time them with his opponents forward motion. Even over just three rounds I think Miocic takes this, he’s on the rise and while Arlovski certainly has the tools to win Miocic is a much safer bet.
Winner: Stipe Miocic, Decision
The staff picks Stipe Miocic, 3-0.
UFC Welterweight Championship Bout: Robbie Lawler vs. Carlos Condit
Jeffrey Harris: This is quite possibly on paper one of the most intriguing welterweight title contests of all time. These are two of the most violent and dangerous strikers in UFC welterweight history. This is definitely do or die for Condit. Between the two, I would say Condit is the far more technical and strategic. Lawler has a lot more aggression, but both men are knockout artists. Lawler has won 20 of his 26 wins by knockout. Condit has 15 knockout wins and 13 submission wins. Both men are tough as nails and incredibly hard to stop. I can see this fight going a lot of ways. I can see Condit trying to stay at distance and try to counter Lawler. I can see Lawler just barreling through and going after Condit. I’m generally leaning more toward Lawler here because of his power and just what an amazing run he’s had since his return to the UFC. Lawler just seems stronger and more mentally confident now. Either way, I’m just hoping for a great fight and a decisive winner.
Winner: Robbie Lawler, Decision
Lorenzo Vasquez III: Robbie Lawler is set to make his second title defense against “The Natural Born Killer” Carlos Condit. Condit had been away from competition for a while but quickly bounced back with a win over Thiago Alves. The question here is whether or not Condit is ready to get back in at the championship level. Lawler is still a heavy hitter; however, he has improved his striking and dramatically improved his wrestling defense since losing to Johny Hendricks in their first meeting. Lawler’s plan is simple, keep the feet standing, roll with the punches, and make his opponent pay. Condit, on the other hand, has a more diverse arsenal of strikes than Lawler; however, I don’t think they are as fluid as the champ’s. And, his wrestling defense has always stayed behind compared to some of his peer. Condit can put pressure but at the same he leaves himself open to getting hit. He can also play the counter puncher role at range, but, he isn’t the best. He is solid from his back and lethal on top. This could be a back and forth war and you can’t count Condit out. However, Lawler is crisper and he will slip in some heavy leather when Condit least expects it. My pick is Lawler by TKO sometime after the second round.
Winner: Robbie Lawler, TKO, Round 3
Robert Winfree: Someone’s going to die in this fight. These two bring a level of violence into the cage that few in MMA do, both men love swinging, both know how to use technical striking, both have power. Carlos Condit has a slight edge in diversity as he’ll throw knees and elbows more than Lawler does, but Lawler might have an edge in raw power. It’s really tough to pick against Carlos Condit unless he’s facing a high level wrestler, and Robbie Lawler isn’t a high level wrestler. I’m tempted to go with Condit here, but Lawler has looked so impressive lately that I just can’t do it. Condit’s lack of defense could get him in trouble here, because letting guys like Tyron Woodley or Dan Hardy get in a punch is quite different than Lawler. This should be a great main event to start the year on though.
Winner: Robbie Lawler, Decision
The staff picks Robbie Lawler, 3-0.
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