Shaking Out The Welterweight Division Ahead Of UFC on FOX

Did you know that there is a UFC on FOX show this Saturday? I watch the NFL on FOX every week and I can’t recall a single commercial for this Saturday’s event. It’s happening, though. I promise.

The event is headlined by Rafael dos Anjos taking on Robbie Lawler in a welterweight showdown. Dana White says that the winner of this bout will fight Tyron Woodley for the welterweight strap. That’s Dana White-speak for, “The winner will get a title shot unless we just decide to go in a different direction.”

The winner of dos Anjos-Lawler would certainly be the rightful number one contender. Lawler bounced back from losing the title to Woodley with a convincing win over Donald Cerrone. Dos Anjos has looked great in his two welterweight contests, picking up a decision win over Tarec Saffiedine and easily choking out Neil Magny in his latest bout.

Lawler is the number two ranked contender, only behind Stephen Thompson. Thompson has failed to defeat Woodley on two occasions, both fights being a cure for insomnia, and won’t sniff another title fight as long as Woodley remains champion.

Dos Anjos is ranked fourth, trailing the aforementioned Lawler, Thompson, and Colby Covington.

And there’s your wildcard in this dos Anjos-Lawler bout.

Covington is currently ranked third, despite less than impressive victories. He out-pointed Demian Maia, Dong Hyun Kim, and Bryan Barberena in three fights that no one remembers. Maia is the most impressive name on the list and even he is less than stellar victory given his one-dimensional style, schedule leading up to the fight, and advanced age.

Based on merit, it’s tough to say Covington deserves the title shot over the dos Anjos-Lawler winner. But UFC title shots are not given out based on merit. They are given out based on who can sell the most pay-per-views. And Covington may win that battle.

While Covington has yet to headline any show he’s ever been on and has zero pay-per-view appearances to his name, he’s been a spark for controversy throughout this year. Following his victory over Maia, he called Brazil a “dump” and said that Brazilians were “filthy animals.”

Fabricio Werdum threw a boomerang at him, he called Werdum a “f*****”, he’s appeared on Impact Wrestling, and he’s beefed with Jon Jones and Kenny Florian on Twitter. He’s ripped pages straight out of the Chael Sonnen, Conor McGregor, and Michael Bisping playbook, creating his own Super Guide to Getting Noticed in MMA.

Woodley is not a pay-per-view draw on his own. His bout with Robbie Lawler drew 240,000 buys while the rematch with Stephen Thompson did 300,000. UFC 214, which did 860,000 buys, had Woodley in the co-main event, but his bout with Maia is arguably the most uneventful title fight in UFC history.

Given Woodley’s recent history of lackluster fights, people won’t pay to see him simply compete. They need a villain or hero to get behind. Lawler and dos Anjos are neither hero or villain. Lawler has become slightly more charismatic over the years and his fighting style is appealing to the casual “Just Bleed” audience, but he won’t ruffle any feathers with his words.

Dos Anjos has attempted to bait Woodley into a back-and-forth, but no one really cares about Rafael Dos Anjos after he pulled out of the McGregor fight.

That leaves Covington as the villain/hero. He’s the villain to most, but I’m sure plenty of people find his “don’t give a fuck” attitude appealing. I’d say, at least half the country feels that way. Give or take. The issue for Covington is that Woodley isn’t the most captivating hero. People would rather watch paint dry than see Woodley fight. No one cares if Woodley wins or loses, they would rather him not fight all.

While Covington presents the best argument with his mouth, the dos Anjos-Lawler winner presents the best argument with their skills. Woodley-Covington wouldn’t be too dissimilar to Woodley’s recent fights, barring a flash knockout by Woodley. Woodley against Lawler and dos Anjos have a better chance or having some semblance of action.

With Woodley electing to get shoulder surgery, chances are this whole column becomes moot as the winner of dos Anjos-Lawler will fight Covington for the interim welterweight title.

Such is MMA.