411 Box Office Report: The Mandalorian & Grogu Takes #1 While Obsession Sets Second-Weekend Record

Star Wars stormed the box office as The Mandalorian & Grogu led the way and Obsession set a second-weekend record. The Mandalorian film sequel topped the charts for Memorial Day weekend, bringing in $82 million over three days and $102 million through Monday. That’s a bit better than expected for the film, which was predicted for around $95 million for the full four-day frame.

Let’s get the bad out of the way: Mandalorian is the lowest opening weekend for a Star Wars film, just slightly behind the $84.4 million three-day and $103 million four-day launch of Solo: A Star Wars Story in this same weekend in 2018. That said, things look much rosier for Din Djarin, because Mandalorian cost exactly half of the astronomical $330 million budget for Solo. The new film cost “only” $165 million, which puts it on a much stronger road than its predecessor.

Disney will vociferously point out that Mandalorian came into the weekend without the advantages of other Star Wars films. Specifically, it is based on a TV show and has no filmic past beyond the universe and brand name — the latter of which was not explicitly stated in the title. It’s also the first Star Wars film to be completely unconnected to characters or events from the previous films.

Of course, that’s all quibbling over details. Most anyone who knew of this film knew it was a Star Wars entry, and the biggest battle the film had was with the franchise’s rougher reception in recent years. The last truly beloved Star Wars film was Rogue One: A Star Wars Story in 2016; every entry since has been polarizing and the TV series have been as well outside of The Mandalorian. Mandalorian & Grogu is earning a solid enough reception; the Rotten Tomatoes aggregate score is 62%, which is down from Solo’s 69%. But the 89% RT audience score dwarfs that film’s 63%, while A- CinemaScore equals Solo’s score.

The positive word of mouth led to the film’s estimates rising throughout the weekend. As it stands, the movie has added $63 million overseas for $165 million. That means it needs legs to make back its budget still, but it does have a pretty solid shot. If it continues to keep pace with Solo, it should end up around $210 million in the US. Disney is hoping for something more along Rogue One’s legs which would put it in the $280 million range, but the more likely landing is around $225 million to $230 million with foreign numbers bringing it out of the red.

Meanwhile, Obsession defied all box office expectations as it rose quite a bit from its opening weekend. Curry Barker’s horror film took in $22.4 million through Sunday and $28.2 million through Monday. Those three-day numbers are up a jaw-dropping 30% from the $16.1 million opening weekend, marking the best second weekend change for a horror film in history. The old record went to Heart Eyes which rose 19% in its second weekend, which fell on Valentines Day.

That’s all thanks to the positive word of mouth. As mentioned last week, the film had an A- CinemaScore and it is earning near-universal praise from moviegoers; the RT audience rating hasn’t dipped and is still at 95%, a great score for a very bleak film.

Obsession is now a mega-hit for Focus Features with $58.5 million domestically and $79.8 million worldwide against a budget of just $1 million. The film runs up against big competition next week, but it seems likely to get close to $100 million, a huge number for a film like this.

Michael slipped to #3 in its fifth weekend, but it’s not giving up yet. The Michael Jackson biopic was down just 23% with $20 million over three days and $25.7 million over four days. The film remains an enormous money maker for Lionsgate at $319.9 million domestically and $788 million worldwide against a $155 million budget. At this point it’s getting more likely that it could pass Bohemian Rhapsody’s $879.1 million worldwide total; domestically it is aiming at shooting past $350 million.

The Devil Wears Prada 2 was off a mere 29% in its third weekend with $12.6 million over three days and $16.5 million over four. The comedy sequel is performing quite strongly, with a hefty $200 million in the US and a fantastic $608 million worldwide. It’s getting close to doubling the first film’s numbers ($124.7 domestic, $326.1 million worldwide) and even with a $100 million budget — hefty for comedies — it is bringing in huge profit for 20th Century Studios. Prada 2 has an end game around $225 million in the US.

The Sheep Detectives continues to hold well, down a tiny 6% in its third weekend. The CGI/live action comedy from Amazon MGM took in $9 million through Sunday and $12.4 million through Sunday. The film now stands at $46.9 million stateside and $76.5 million worldwide. It still needs to go a long way before it makes profit in theaters on its $75 million budget, but Amazon MGM isn’t as considered about that because of the Prime Video revenue that will come in. It should now make it up to $65 million or more in the US.

Passenger got off to an okay start, as the horror flick opened to $8.7 million over three days and $10.5 million over four. That’s perfectly decent for the André Øvredal-directed film, which is coming out of Paramount. It’s right around where it was expected to open.

Passenger had some factors playing against it, most notably the high competition from Obsession. It is a much less-beloved film than that one with a 45% RT critic rating and an ugly 53% RT audience rating, but a solid B- CinemaScore. Critic scores don’t often kill horror films, and this one is doing just fine. The film cost $15 million to make and added $4.8 million overseas for $15.3 million worldwide, so as long as it holds well it should be okay. The domestic total is likely to be around $25 million.

Mortal Kombat II continued to fade away, down 54% in its third frame to $6.2 million ($7.9 million through Monday). The film is unlikely to make back its $80 million budget considering that it is now at $74.5 million domestically and $120 million worldwide. It will finish out in the US around $80 million.

Boots Riley was back in theaters this weekend with I Love Boosters, which opened soft as expected. The crime comedy took in $3.7 million over three days and $4.6 million for the whole of the holiday frame.

That number is about on par with Riley’s Sorry to Bother You, which opened to $4.2 million in July 2018. The new film is a hit with critics (92% On RT) and doing decent scores with moviegoers who saw it at a 74% RT audience score and B CinemaScore. Paramount never imagined this would be a big hit and the $20 million budget will look to be made back on home viewing, where Sorry to Bother You became a bigger hit. I Love Boosters will probably get to around $12 million to $15 million in the US.

The Super Mario Galaxy Movie is hanging in there, off 30% to $3.2 million in its seventh weekend over three days and $4.1 million over four. The sequel is now at $424.5 million in the US and $980.3 million worldwide. It will reach $1 billion worldwide and likely about $433 million in the US. The production budget was $110 million.

Project Hail Mary closed out the top 10, down 33% in its 10th weekend to $2.7 million ($3.4 million through Monday). The Amazon Prime blockbuster has totaled $340.2 million stateside and $675.6 million worldwide, making it a success against a $190 million budget. It will close out around $345 million.

Next weekend will still likely see Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu at #1, but don’t fully discount The Backrooms if Mandalorian drops hard. The liminal horror film from A24 has seen interest spike as we get close to release and is currently targeting in the $35 million range, though it could go higher. Sony Pictures’ The Breadwinner is likely for a mid to high teens start, while Focus Features’ Pressure will be in the low single digits.

Box Office Top Ten (Three-Day Domestic Numbers)

1. The Mandalorian & Grogu – $82 million ($102 million total, $165 million WW)
2. Obsession – $22.4 million ($58.5 million total, $79.8 million WW)
3. Michael – $20.1 million ($319.9 million total, $788 million WW)
4. The Devil Wears Prada 2 – $12.6 million ($200 million total, $608 million WW)
5. The Sheep Detectives – $9.0 million ($46.9 million total, $76.5 million WW)
6. Passenger – $8.7 million ($10.5 million total, $15.3 million WW)
7. Mortal Kombat II – $6.2 million ($74.5 million total, $120 million WW)
8. I Love Boosters – $3.7 million ($4.6 million total, $4.6 million WW)
9. The Super Mario Galaxy Movie – $3.2 million ($424.5 million total, $980.3 million WW)
10. Project Hail Mary – $2.7 million ($340.2 million total, $675.6 million WW)