411’s TV Renewal Predictions: Black Lightning’s Renewal Chances Aren’t In Doubt

Welcome to 411’s official renewal predictions for the 2017 – 2018 television season! I’m Jeremy Thomas and after last season’s late-era run, we’re back to keep predictions going from fall going forward. The fall season is now in full launch this past week and we’re going to take a weekly look at what’s likely to get renewed as well as what you’re not very likely to see come back next year.

This is going to be a pretty short and sweet column each week. I’ll be updating my predictions every Sunday if there’s anything that warrants a move.

How It Works

The categories are pretty self-explanatory: Renewed, Likely Renewal, Bubble (could go either way), Likely Cancellation and Cancelled. It is worth mentioning that some shows will be moved into “Cancelled” status before an official announcement; networks are generally loathe to announce cancellations but there are clear signs when a show has been cancelled. These include a lack of additional episodes ordered for a first season, main cast members joining other shows or pilots and statements made by members of the cast or crew.

A show’s rating in the 18 – 49 demographic generally determines renewal, as that is the demographic that advertisers pay for (and thus determines the show’s profit margin). The 18 – 49 demo rating will be included after the show in the list. However, it’s not as simple as “X show has a higher rating than Y show, so it will be renewed.” There are certain expectations regarding a show’s timeslot; a 10 PM show can easily survive with a lower rating than a 9 PM show. Fridays tend to have lower ratings expectations and a show that is produced by the network’s production company is more likely to be renewed than one that the network has no stake in. International and streaming distributions can influence some shows to survive, but that is by no means a saving grace.

This Week’s Highlights

For most of us who have strong geek inclinations, the biggest television news this week was the premiere of Black Lightning on The CW. And the smallest of the broadcast networks couldn’t be happier about its performance. The series has great reviews across the board (including here at 411). But more signficantly, it’s a ratings hit for The CW right off the bat. Black Lightning started with a 0.8 demo rating, which was 100% retention from lead-in The Flash. And that’s without the benefit of an Arrowverse connection, as Black Lightning isn’t part of the CW’s greater DC television universe.

It almost goes without saying at this point, but Black Lightning’s renewal is a sure thing. Even if the series dropped a fair bit in successive weeeks, the show would still be in the top tier for The CW. The network has a template for success right now, and it runs through superheroes and genre television. Black Lighting’s positive buzz will keep it going strong, which will make sure it comes back next year. That’s probably the final nail in the coffin for Dynasty, whose renewal chances were contingent on midseason shows failing. But the other CW shows came back holding well or up from their fall finales, which means they’re all looking good to come back or at least not Likely Canceled at this point.

It’s been a good winter almost all around right now, as shows have come back strong on many networks. FOX is benefitting from football boosts, but even without that 9-1-1 is an unmitigated hit for the network. The show earned a second season early last week after its third episode hit a 1.8, better than the already-good season premiere. The NFL boost is applying to the Sunday night lineup and Ghosted, Bob’s Burgers and The Last Man on Earth are all looking rosier right now. How they perform in the coming, non-football weeks will be key, but FOX can breathe a slight sigh of relief for now.

And what about The X-Files? Last week, I talked about how the show came back with middling numbers in its first two weeks. The show rebounded a touch this week, but it’s still not exactly a hit this season. FOX has shown in the last couple of years that they aren’t stuck on franchise name value in renewal decisions, as 24: Legacy and others have shown. So this week I’m moving the venerable show to the Bubble. I wouldn’t be shocked if it didn’t come back, or at least was done for a few years.

Over at ABC, there have been a couple of lifts but the most notable one is Agents of SHIELD. The show has been more or less matching its January 2017 numbers, when it aired on Tuesdays and not Fridays (albeit at 10 PM last year). For perspective, its eighth episode this past Friday was 28% above Marvel’s Inhumans’ eighth episode — and that was Inhumans’ series) “season” finale. It’s also outperforming Once Upon a Time‘s eighth episode by the same percentage. These are possibly renewable numbers for the show, but by no means is this a sure thing. It’s right on the renewal/cancellation edge and could very much go either way for now.

CBS has benefitted the most from the winter returns, with ease. Most of their shows are up at this point, most notably Man With a Plan, Superior Donuts and Seal Team. In fact, the number of shows that got boosts just makes the one that didn’t — SWAT — stand out. SWAT had a couple minor upticks but was back down to a 1.0, making its status on the Bubble more precarious. It’s not screwed yet, but it’s not in great shape.

Finally, we have NBC. Everything mostly stayed stable there, which is both good news Superstore the Chicago shows) and bad Taken). The most newsworthy story there is The Blacklist, which moves up to Likely Renewed this week. The drama was looking a little rough in late fall, but it stabilized and bounced back by the fall finale. The winter return has seen the show hit the best numbers since the season premiere. Running neck and neck with last season, the show is actually up from the same point last year and that’s enough for me to imagine a likely renewal here.

ABC

Renewed:
* Modern Family (1.73)
* The Goldbergs (1.52)

Likely Renewal:
* Grey’s Anatomy (2.06)
* The Good Doctor (1.87)
* American Housewife (1.30)
* Speechless (1.16)
* Black-ish (1.12)
* Fresh Off the Boat (1.06)

Bubble:
* How to Get Away with Murder (0.94)
* Designated Survivor (0.81)
* Kevin (Probably) Saves the World (0.70)
* Marvel’s Agents of SHIELD (0.59)

Likely Cancellation:
* Marvel’s Inhumans (0.61)
* Once Upon a Time (0.55)

Cancelled:
* The Middle (1.36) – Final season previously announced
* Scandal (1.18) – Final season previously announced
* The Mayor (0.82)
* Ten Days in the Valley (0.35)

Too Early to Call:
* Alex, Inc. (Premieres March 28th)
* The Crossing (Premieres April 2nd)
* Deception (Premieres March 11th)
* For The People (Premieres March 13th)
* Grey’s Anatomy Spinoff (Premieres March 29th)
* Quantico (Premieres April 26th)
* Roseanne (Premieres March 27th)
* Splitting Up Together (Premieres March 27th)

CBS

Renewed:
* Big Bang Theory (2.92)
* Young Sheldon (2.37)

Likely Renewal:
* Mom (1.50)
* NCIS (1.45)
* Kevin Can Wait (1.29)
* Bull (1.20)
* Life in Pieces (1.17)
* Seal Team (1.09)
* Man With a Plan (1.04)
* Criminal Minds (1.03)
* Hawaii Five-0 (1.02)
* NCIS: New Orleans (1.00)
* NCIS: Los Angeles (0.96)
* Blue Bloods (0.94)
* Code Black (Premieres April 25th)

Bubble:
* SWAT (1.03)
* Superior Donuts (0.93)
* MacGyver (0.86)
* Scorpion (0.84)

Likely Cancellation:
* 9JKL (0.99)
* Madam Secretary (0.67)

Cancelled:
* Me, Myself & I (1.00)
* Wisdom of the Crowd (0.94)

Too Early to Call:
* Elementary (Premieres April 23rd)

NBC

Renewed:
* This Is Us (2.76)
* Will & Grace (1.75)
* The Good Place (1.15)

Likely Renewal:
* Chicago Med (1.31)
* Law & Order: SVU (1.30)
* Chicago PD (1.20)
* Chicago Fire (1.12)
* Superstore (1.12)
* The Blacklist (0.97)
* Blindspot (0.67)
* Shades of Blue (Premieres Midseason)

Bubble:
None

Likely Cancellation:
* Law & Order True Crime (1.05)
* The Brave (0.95)
* Great News (0.75)
* Taken (0.5)

Cancelled:
None

Too Early to Call:
None

FOX

Renewed:
* The Simpsons (1.89)
* 9-1-1 (1.70)
* The Orville (1.25)
* The Gifted (1.00)

Likely Renewal:
* Empire (1.92)
* Bob’s Burgers (1.38)
* Star (1.34)
* Family Guy (1.29)
* Lucifer (0.89)
* The Mick (0.78)

Bubble:
* Ghosted (1.17)
* The X-Files (1.14)
* Lethal Weapon (1.03)
* The Last Man on Earth (0.89)
* Gotham (0.87)

Likely Cancellation:
* L.A. to Vegas (0.93)
* Brooklyn Nine-Nine (0.66)
* The Exorcist (0.41)

Cancelled:
* New Girl (Final season previously announced, premieres April 10th)

Too Early to Call:
* The Resident (Premieres January 21st)

The CW

Renewed:

Likely Renewal:
* The Flash (0.89)
* Black Lightning (0.80)
* Supernatural (0.60)
* Riverdale (0.56)
* Supergirl (0.55)
* Legends of Tomorrow (0.55)
* Arrow (0.51)
* Crazy Ex-Girlfriend (0.21)

Bubble:
* Jane the Virgin (0.25)

Likely Cancellation:
* Dynasty (0.22)

Cancelled:
* Valor (0.21)
* The Originals (Final season previously announced, premieres April 20th)

Too Early to Call:
* The 100 (Premieres April 24th)
* iZombie (Premieres February 26th)
* Life Sentence (Premieres March 7th)