411’s TV Renewal Predictions: The X-Files Could See Its End At Last

Welcome to 411’s official renewal predictions for the 2017 – 2018 television season! I’m Jeremy Thomas and after last season’s late-era run, we’re back to keep predictions going from fall going forward. The fall season is now in full launch this past week and we’re going to take a weekly look at what’s likely to get renewed as well as what you’re not very likely to see come back next year.

This is going to be a pretty short and sweet column each week. I’ll be updating my predictions every Sunday if there’s anything that warrants a move.

How It Works

The categories are pretty self-explanatory: Renewed, Likely Renewal, Bubble (could go either way), Likely Cancellation and Cancelled. It is worth mentioning that some shows will be moved into “Cancelled” status before an official announcement; networks are generally loathe to announce cancellations but there are clear signs when a show has been cancelled. These include a lack of additional episodes ordered for a first season, main cast members joining other shows or pilots and statements made by members of the cast or crew.

A show’s rating in the 18 – 49 demographic generally determines renewal, as that is the demographic that advertisers pay for (and thus determines the show’s profit margin). The 18 – 49 demo rating will be included after the show in the list. However, it’s not as simple as “X show has a higher rating than Y show, so it will be renewed.” There are certain expectations regarding a show’s timeslot; a 10 PM show can easily survive with a lower rating than a 9 PM show. Fridays tend to have lower ratings expectations and a show that is produced by the network’s production company is more likely to be renewed than one that the network has no stake in. International and streaming distributions can influence some shows to survive, but that is by no means a saving grace.

This Week’s Highlights

The TV season is back with the new year, and with it comes a lot of updates. Let’s get the announced news out of the way first. A couple of shows earned renewals over the break, specifically CBS’ Young Sheldon and FOX’s The Gifted. Young Sheldon is no surprise, of course. It’s the biggest new show of the season and CBS’ second-biggest show behind Big Bang Theory. The Gifted is somewhat more of a surprise, though not a shock. The X-Men show was a solid performer but wasn’t setting ratings on fire.

It is conceivable that, as mentioned in my last column of 2017, Disney’s influence may have had a factor in The Gifted’s renewal. However, I’m not betting on it. Disney’s buy of Fox TV won’t go through for months if it does. As such, it’s business at Fox right now. More likely, Fox just recognized the value of the X-Men franchise on TV. The show’s positive buzz probably helped, too. Either way, it’ll be back next season.

One show that won’t be back, on the other hand, is The Mayor. ABC pulled the show from the schedule earlier this month. That is functionally a cancellation. Again, this is no surprise. The show struggled in the ratings from the start and never managed to recover. It’s ABC’s second casualty following Ten Days in the Valley’s end earlier this year.

Will Agents of SHIELD follow them? That situation has become muddier over the past two weeks. With game show Child Support replacing Once Upon a Time at 8 PM for now, SHIELD saw a season high 0.7 two Fridays ago. For reference, that is the same approximate rating the show was pulling last season on Tuesdays when it got renewed. This last Friday saw a 0.6, which is still an improvement from the second to fourth weeks of this season.

What does this tell us? Put quite simply, Agents of SHIELD was hurt by the low numbers of Once Upon a Time. That’s not to say SHIELD is excused for its numbers though. The show is somewhat lead-in dependant on Friday nights and that leaves it in flux. While it’s at about the same numbers as Inhumans, SHIELD is expected to have lower ratings considering it’s in season five. It’s staying in Likely Cancellation for now, but it’s now on the upward edge of it now.

There were also several shows that debuted with the new year. The most notable shows are FOX’s 9-1-1, L.A. to Vegas and The X-Files, and NBC’s Taken. 9-1-1 is performing the best, starting off with an impressive 1.78 and then holding well in week two. It seems likely to return, barring a sudden crash. Things look less good for L.A. to Vegas which began with a 1.1 and has already dropped to a 0.8. It’s already in the lower half of FOX’s ratings, and will likely only drop further from there. It’s not looking great to return right now.

And what about The X-Files? One could imagine that it should be in Likely Cancellation due to Gillian Anderson leaving after this season and Chris Carter saying he won’t do more without her. But these predictions aren’t contingent on outside factors like talent departures, because we can’t predict those.

Besides, it isn’t like the show is tearing up the ratings anyway. X-Files started tolerably with a 1.33, but slipped to a 1.0 in week two. That’s not terrible news for the show, but it isn’t encouraging either. Right now, it stays in “Too Early to Call” status. Taken, on the other hand, is done. The show was a marginal renewal last season, but it came back on Friday to a 0.5. That was a loss of 0.2 from its lead-in Blindspot, which has done fairly well on Fridays. NBC retooled the show for the second season, but it doesn’t seem to have helped and this show won’t return.

NBC had a couple other bits of bad news too, in Great News and The Brave. Great News had a very rough winter, airing new episodes and getting trounced with abysmal numbers. And The Brave took an absolutely brutal hit when it last week, down to an ugly 0.5. Its last rating before the winter break was a 0.94. Neither of these shows seem likely to come back.

Only a quick note on The CW, as nothing much is happening there yet. The net’s shows start returning this week; only Crazy Ex-Girlfriend has continued airing and it’s done the same numbers it’s pulled all season. Dynasty is the only other thing of note, having been shifted to Fridays for midseason. Whether that’s a good sign or bad sign, we don’t know for sure yet. But it was already in sketchy shape, so I’m leaning bad.

ABC

Renewed:
* Modern Family (1.73)
* The Goldbergs (1.50)

Likely Renewal:
* Grey’s Anatomy (2.05)
* The Good Doctor (1.88)
* American Housewife (1.31)
* Speechless (1.15)
* Black-ish (1.13)
* Fresh Off the Boat (1.07)

Bubble:
* How to Get Away with Murder (0.93)
* Designated Survivor (0.81)
* Kevin (Probably) Saves the World (0.71)

Likely Cancellation:
* Marvel’s Inhumans (0.61)
* Marvel’s Agents of SHIELD (0.60)
* Once Upon a Time (0.55)

Cancelled:
* The Middle (1.36) – Final season previously announced
* Scandal (1.16) – Final season previously announced
* The Mayor (0.82)
* Ten Days in the Valley (0.36)

Too Early to Call:
* Alex, Inc. (Premieres March 28th)
* The Crossing (Premieres April 2nd)
* Deception (Premieres March 11th)
* For The People (Premieres March 13th)
* Grey’s Anatomy Spinoff (Premieres March 29th)
* Quantico (Premieres April 26th)
* Roseanne (Premieres March 27th)
* Splitting Up Together (Premieres March 27th)

CBS

Renewed:
* Big Bang Theory (2.92)
* Young Sheldon (2.37)

Likely Renewal:
* Mom (1.49)
* NCIS (1.45)
* Kevin Can Wait (1.29)
* Bull (1.20)
* Life in Pieces (1.17)
* Seal Team (1.09)
* Criminal Minds (1.03)
* Hawaii Five-0 (1.01) – Great Situation
* Man With a Plan (1.01)
* NCIS: New Orleans (1.00)
* NCIS: Los Angeles (0.95)
* Blue Bloods (0.95)
* Code Black (Premieres April 25th)

Bubble:
* SWAT (1.03)
* Superior Donuts (0.91)
* MacGyver (0.85)
* Scorpion (0.83)

Likely Cancellation:
* 9JKL (0.99)
* Madam Secretary (0.67)

Cancelled:
* Me, Myself & I (1.00)
* Wisdom of the Crowd (0.94)

Too Early to Call:
* Elementary (Premieres April 23rd)

NBC

Renewed:
* This Is Us (2.79)
* Will & Grace (1.79)
* The Good Place (1.16)

Likely Renewal:
* Law & Order: SVU (1.29)
* Chicago Med (1.28)
* Chicago PD (1.18)
* Chicago Fire (1.14)
* Superstore (1.13)
* Blindspot (0.67)
* Shades of Blue (Premieres Midseason)

Bubble:
* The Blacklist (0.95)

Likely Cancellation:
* Law & Order True Crime (1.05)
* The Brave (0.98)
* Great News (0.76)
* Taken (0.5)

Cancelled:
None

Too Early to Call:
None

FOX

Renewed:
* The Simpsons (1.75)
* The Orville (1.25)
* The Gifted (1.01)

Likely Renewal:
* Empire (1.92)
* 9-1-1 (1.64)
* Star (1.34)
* Bob’s Burgers (1.27)
* Family Guy (1.23)
* Lucifer (0.89)
* The Mick (0.78)

Bubble:
* Ghosted (1.17)
* Lethal Weapon (1.02)
* Gotham (0.87)
* The Last Man on Earth (0.85)

Likely Cancellation:
* L.A. to Vegas (0.95)
* Brooklyn Nine-Nine (0.66)
* The Exorcist (0.41)

Cancelled:
* New Girl (Final season previously announced, premieres April 10th)

Too Early to Call:
* The X-Files (1.17)
* The Resident (Premieres January 21st)

The CW

Renewed:

Likely Renewal:
* The Flash (0.90)
* Supernatural (0.60)
* Riverdale (0.57)
* Supergirl (0.55)
* Legends of Tomorrow (0.55)
* Arrow (0.51)
* Crazy Ex-Girlfriend (0.21)

Bubble:
* Jane the Virgin (0.25)

Likely Cancellation:
* Dynasty (0.22)

Cancelled:
* Valor (0.22)
* The Originals (Final season previously announced, premieres April 20th)

Too Early to Call:
* The 100 (Premieres April 24th)
* Black Lightning (Premieres January 16th)
* iZombie (Premieres February 26th)
* Life Sentence (Premieres March 7th)