The WWE No Mercy Raw Women’s Championship Fatal Five-Way Prognosis

I don’t know if you’ve heard, but this weekend’s No Mercy presentation from Raw has a couple of WrestleMania-quality main events. John Cena vs. Roman Reigns & Brock Lesnar vs. Braun Strowman could fill a football stadium, but instead they’re taking place on a show in a city where the NFL can’t fill a soccer stadium.

The two main events aren’t the only matches on the show that could be deemed “WrestleMania-quality”. Let’s face it, the Show of Shows has been known over the years for dumping all the women on the WWE roster into a single match in an attempt to get everybody on the show. A similar situation has arisen here, as the top five women on the Raw brand have been dumped into a Fatal Five-Way for the Raw Women’s Championship.

Let’s take a closer look at these Superstars and see which one will come out on top.

Alexa Bliss
Age: 26
Height: 5’1
Titles Held: WWE Raw Women’s Championship (2 times, current), WWE SmackDown Women’s Championship (2 times), Goddess of WWE

Why She’ll Win: Alexa always finds a way to win. I’d give her the edge over everybody else as far as intelligence goes, as her mind is always working. She even tried to get on Sasha & Bayley’s good side on Raw, which seems like a ridiculous idea on paper, but you at least gotta try if you’re a heel champion with four other women coming after you. I’d say she’s very lucky as well, but eventually when you have enough success it stops being luck. Alexa has arguably been the top female competitor in WWE since her arrival on SmackDown, and there’s no reason to think that’ll change anytime soon.

Why She’ll Lose: She’s made a ton of enemies while achieving that success at their expense. She had Nia Jax as an ally for a few minutes there, but eventually Nia got tired of that and decided she wanted what Alexa had. Sasha & Bayley’s dislike for Alexa is well-established. I don’t know how Emma feels about Alexa. My guess is that Emma doesn’t appreciate Alexa taking the perennial spot on top of the Women’s Division that she feels belongs to her. Alexa will have to keep her head on a swivel, as everybody will be gunning for her.

Sasha Banks
Age: 25
Height: 5’5
Titles Held: WWE Raw Women’s Championship (4 times), NXT Women’s Championship, Pro Wrestling Illustrated Woman of the Year (2015)

Why She’ll Win: Sasha is always a threat to win any championship match she’s in, as she’s held the Raw Women’s Championship more times than anybody. She’s right up there with Alexa in the intelligence department, and unlike Alexa she’s got an ally in Bayley. She’s the top babyface in the division and the most likely to get a great pop from the crowd with a title victory. The only problem is what happens when she wins the Championship, as she hasn’t had a single successful defense of the Raw Women’s Championship. We don’t need to worry about that right now.

Why She’ll Lose: I can see the writers deciding that they don’t need to have Sasha go over here in order to get the title onto somebody else later. The number is getting a little high…do we really need to have Sasha match Booker T in title reigns just yet. Also, as Sasha is the biggest face in the match, her taking the fall should get the most heat from the crowd. I think that’s the most likely scenario for the Boss on Sunday.

Nia Jax
Age: 33
Height: 6’0
Description: Not Like Most Girls

Why She’ll Win: It seems like it’s only a matter of time before Nia takes her spot on top of the Raw Women’s Division. She towers over everybody in this match, especially the champion Bliss & the former champion Banks. What hope can they possibly have against her with such a size disadvantage. If anybody can just run over everybody else in the match, it’s Nia Jax.

Why She’ll Lose: Her status as the largest force in the match also makes her the biggest target. We even saw Sasha & Bayley put aside their differences with Alexa, albeit temporarily, to take Nia Jax down. If this was a one on one Championship match, I’d like Nia’s chances against anybody. Alexa, Sasha, whoever. None of them match up well with Nia. With four other people running around, it’s going to be more difficult.

Bayley
Age: 28
Height: 5’6
Titles Held: WWE Raw Women’s Championship, NXT Women’s Championship, Pro Wrestling Illustrated Most Inspirational Wrestler of the Year (2015, 2016)

Why She’ll Win: It’s the perfect story, right? Our beloved former champion got her shoulder separated on Raw by Nia Jax and was forced to miss a little less than two months. Prior to that she had already been down on her luck after losing the Championship to Alexa Bliss and failing to regain it in a kendo stick on a pole match. Bayley was down on herself & getting injured sure wouldn’t help with that. It would only make sense to have the plucky underdog that’s all about hugs & good times overcome all odds and make a triumphant comeback at No Mercy, regaining the Raw Women’s Championship and bringing joy & peace back to Planet Earth.

Why She’ll Lose: The only downside to all of this is that the WWE Universe doesn’t exactly love Bayley these days. In fact, a lot of them flat-out don’t like her. I think it’s a combination of factors:

1. The Rocky Maivia effect where we tend to dislike people that are smiley & happy all the time no matter what’s going on.
2. The Rey Mysterio effect where the plucky underdog wins all the time and isn’t really an underdog anymore. Bayley was successful far sooner than people were expecting, and now that she’s a former champion we can’t buy her as a doe-eyed innocent young girl that’s in over her head.

Bayley’s big return was in her hometown of San Jose. The last time Raw was in San Jose was back in April at Payback, where Bayley lost the title to Alexa. The difference in crowd reaction to Bayley in April compared to her big return this week, less than five months later, was noticeable and not in a good way. They weren’t booing her like some other Raw crowds have, but the enthuiasm really wasn’t there like it was at Payback. Bayley’s definitely cooled off in the past few months on Raw, and hot-shotting the Championship back on her isn’t going to work…at least it won’t if they plan on having people cheer.

Emma
Age: 28
Height: 5’5
Accomplishments: Started the #WomensRevolution

Let’s switch the order for the last one here…

Why She’ll Lose: Emma is obviously the fifth woman on the Raw totem pole right now. Bliss & Banks have been feuding for quite some time now. Nia Jax has been positioned as the next big thing. Bayley has the injury redemption thing going on. Emma? She got squashed by Jax a couple of times and is only in this match because she & Jax won a tag team match against partners that hated each other. Before that she was bragging about her hashtag game & how she started the Women’s Revolution. She hasn’t exactly been a championship-level competitor on the main roster in…well…ever?

Why She’ll Win: I recently finished Chris Jericho’s latest book No Is A Four Letter Word, which I highly recommend for your perusal. His relationship with Vince McMahon comes up often, and one of the parts I found most enlightening about the way Vince’s mind works is the story behind Jericho’s match with Fandango at WrestleMania 29.

Jericho used the buildup to the match to try & get the newcomer over as a serious threat to him & had Fandango beat him up every week heading into the show. Jericho assumed that he was going over at WrestleMania, but Vince had other ideas. When Jericho told Vince that nobody would buy Fandango winning, Vince had the following to say:

”That’s what I want. I’d be thrilled if seventy-five thousand people started chanting ‘bullshit’ at the finish. The less they buy it, the better. I wanna really piss them off.”

Most of us had suspected this of Vince for decades, but this is the first time I can remember somebody in WWE confirming it. If you think WWE likes booking things to piss the fans off, you’re right. If you think WWE likes booking things to surprise the fans, you’re also right.

Nobody expects Emma to win. She’s been the odd person out for most of the storyline while the focus has been on Bliss, Banks, Jax & now the returning Bayley. That’s why now is the perfect time to have her win & jump up on everybody else’s level. I’m calling it: The Dancing Queen of WWE will win her very first Championship this Sunday.

#ThankEmmaForTheRevolution
#GiveEmmaAChance
#GiveEmmaATShirt
#WheresEmmasMerch
#WeWantEmma