TKO Target Stock Price Lowered By JP Morgan Citing ‘Mixed’ Fan Sentiment & More

JP Morgan has lowered their target price for TKO stock head of the company’s quarterly financial report, citing fan sentiment among their reasons. MarketBeat reports that equities researchers at JPMorgan Chase & Co. slightly downgraded the stock expectations from $225 to $222. The report cited higher costs over the last quarter and the fact that fan sentiment has become “mixed” as of late as part of their reasons for the minor lowering of expectations.

According to the Wrestling Observer Newsletter, this may be the first time a stock report on WWE cited fan impressions about the company’s direction (aka online complaints) in a serious manner. The WON notes that JP Morgan estimates TKO’s EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) at $638 million, down from previous expectations of $661 million, and noted that the UFC Freedom 250 event at the White House and the related fan festivals cost more than expected.

WWE’s revenue is estimated to come in at $619 million, which would be up 30%, with an EBITDA of $376 million. The increase would be due to increasing media rights deals and sponsorship revenue. The UFC’s revenue is estimated at $505 million which would be up 26%, but EBITDA down to $260 million because of the Freedom 250 costs.

The analysis noted WWE’s creative quality is a concern, again possibly the first time that’s been used in market analysis, which may be impacting SummerSlam’s lower ticket sales. There is also concern about the launch of Zuffa Boxing’s effect on TKO’s revenue. The preview of TKO’s results included :

“Shares are down 4% from Q1 earnings and off from highs reached in late June. There remains concerns around the state of WWE creative and ticket demand including for the upcoming SummerSlam. The latter we think is a reasonable consequence of comping last year’s event in New York and the still relatively new shift to a two-night format. Regarding the creative question, we’re not dismissive, though as we’ve written previously, periodic fan dissatisfaction isn’t new and certainly has been worse (AEW’s rise in 2019 for instance). Viewer data meanwhile looks mixed, with Raw on Netflix trending down YoY, though we estimate PLEs are up (SmackDown comparisons are difficult given Nielsen’s methodology changes).”

While the fact that these concerns have gone outside the industry is significant, the WON notes that according to sources, nothing is currently expected to change until around 2028 when the company’s media rights will start to come back into play ahead of their expiring in 2029.

TKO will announce its second quarter 2026 results on August 3rd.