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411’s MMA Roundtable Preview – UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Penn

January 14, 2017 | Posted by Dan Plunkett

WELCOME:
BJ Penn emerges from retirement in the main event of UFC Fight Night on Sunday! In the main event, Penn takes on up-and-coming featherweight Yair Rodriguez. In the co-main event, lightweights Joe Lauzon and Marcin Held lock horns. At welterweight, Court McGee fights Ben Saunders. Plus, John Moraga vs. Sergio Pettis, and more!

THE STAFF:

  • The new guy, Lorenzo Vasquez III!

  • He’ll lock you in the guillotine, Robert Winfree!

  • And your host, Dan Plunkett!

    Preliminary Card
    UFC Fight Pass
    Heavyweight Bout: Dmitri Smoliakov vs. Cyril Asker
    Light Heavyweight Bout: Joachim Christensen vs. Bojan Mihajlovic
    Lightweight Bout: Devin Powell vs. Drakkar Klose
    Strawweight Bout: Jocelyn Jones-Lybarger vs. Nina Ansaroff

    Fox Sports 1
    Heavyweight Bout: Walt Harris vs. Chase Sherman
    Lightweight Bout: Alex White vs. Tony Martin
    Heavyweight Bout: Oleksiy Oliynyk vs. Viktor Pesta
    Bantamweight Bout: Frankie Saenz vs. Augusto Mendes


    THE MAIN CARD:
    Flyweight Bout: John Moraga vs. Sergio Pettis

    Dan Plunkett: First, I’ll note that the other staffers weren’t asked to pick this fight due to a late change in the fight order. Former title challenger Moraga comes in with two straight losses while Pettis, only 23, is riding in on two straight wins. Pettis has had a couple of hiccups in his UFC run, but he’s looked good in his last two bouts. He was expected to be great striker considering his brother’s talents, but he’s also shown solid wrestling and craftiness off his back. Moraga, a good collegiate wrestler, is best in top position. He agreed to take this fight on short notice two weeks ago. He was tentative and largely ineffective in his last fight, a split decision loss Matheus Nicolau in July. If Moraga fights as he did in July, I find it unlikely he’ll beat the younger, faster Pettis. However, if he becomes a bully and can get on top of Pettis, he should win. Going by recent results, I’m leaning toward Pettis.

    Winner: Pettis, Decision


    Welterweight Bout: Court McGee vs. Ben Saunders

    Lorenzo Vasquez III: McGee can best be described as a worker. He has some grit to him. He is a volume man with a lot of persistence. He can hit takedowns and has a grinding top game. That’s the jest of it. Saunders returns, once again. He is well versed in submission grappling and has decent stand-up. He is long and rangy but his defense leaves a lot to be desired. I am leaning toward calling this a toss up. However, Saunders gets a slight edge. McGee can win a decision with his volume and by tying up Saunders. Saunders has a submission advantage his striking should allow him to land in more impressive fashion. Saunders takes the decision.

    Winner: Ben Saunders, Decision

    Robert Winfree: This is actually the fight I’m most looking forward too on this card since we lost Jimmie Rivera vs. Bryan Caraway. Both McGee and Saunders are blue collar fighters, they fight hard and while they’ll never crack a top ranking much less the title picture they always come to fight. McGee is a volume striker and overall pressure fighter, he’ll have a slight edge in wrestling here but Ben Saunders works very well at range and off of his back. There are perfectly compelling arguments for either man, and logic has me leaning but towards Saunders but I’m going with a bit more of a sentimental pick and taking McGee.

    Winner: Court McGee, Decision

    Dan Plunkett: Saunders is a tough guy to fight. He’s tall and rangy on the feet, where he has the potential to be quite devastating (ask Brandon Wolff). On the ground, he has a dangerous submission attack, helped along by his long frame. As Lorenzo said, McGee is a worker, a volume puncher on the feet and a rough and tumble guy on the mat. I think we’ll see a fun fight that will go everywhere, but I like McGee’s wrestling and volume to get him a close decision.

    Winner: McGee, Decision

    The staff picks Court McGee, 2-1.


    Lightweight Bout: Joe Lauzon vs. Marcin Held

    Lorenzo Vasquez III: Both Lauzon and Held fight similar and both are aggressive but tend to tire in drawn out battles. They are not clean strikers (too technical) but they are excellent submission grapplers/jiu jitsu strongmen—not the elite of the elite but they are game. Lauzon, however, carries some power and has a leg up on experience against better opposition. Both fighters have a common opponent in Diego Sanchez. Held lost a decision after burning through his gas while Lauzon decimated Sanchez immediately. I don’t necessarily think we should count Held out, but everything seems to favor Lauzon. I don’t think this will make it to a decision. Lauzon will land some heavy strikes opening the door to a stoppage sometime after the first round.

    Winner: Joe Lauzon, Submission, Round 3

    Robert Winfree: I was excited for Held to debut in the UFC, he had a really good run in Bellator and has a solid leg lock game for MMA. Then he went out and made the dumbest decisions possible when fighting Diego Sanchez. These two will have some fun ground exchanges as both go for submissions relentlessly and have solid submission skills, Held has slightly better technical striking but Lauzon has heavier hands. On the whole Held severely under performed in his last fight and Lauzon has a bit of a career renaissance going on.

    Winner: Joe Lauzon, Submission, Round 2

    Dan Plunkett: Leg locks! I’m excited for this. Diego Sanchez, with good wrestling and a super underrated top game, wasn’t the best matchup for Held’s UFC debut. Lauzon and Held should combine for a really good fight with great grappler sequences. Lauzon is the more dangerous of the two on his feet, but I see Held as more dangerous on the ground. I’m hoping for a double heel hook finish where they both verbally submit simultaneously, but it’s more likely that there will be a winner and a loser. I’m having a hard time picking this one since I see ways for both to win, but I’ll lean toward Lauzon because I think he has slightly more ways to win.

    Winner: Lauzon, Decision

    The staff picks Joe Lauzon, 3-0.


    Featherweight Bout: Yair Rodriguez vs. BJ Penn

    Lorenzo Vasquez III: Well, Yair Rodriguez gets a big name opponent in BJ Penn but likely not much else. Penn can’t be trusted and never really could be with maybe exception of his last title reign. He’s more consistent at falling short and this is like his third comeback fight and I expect it to go down much like the other two, well, maybe not as bad. Penn is a veteran. He’s tough and he has a quality coach behind him this time. Nonetheless, I’m not sure 100% you can teach this old horse some new tricks. Rodriguez is not at the level of Penn’s last few opponents but he’s a developing workhorse. He likes to fight from the outside with strikes (lots of kicks) and will look for the takedown if his opponent can close the distance. Overall, Rodriguez isn’t the most technical fighter (he’s the flashy type) but he is athletic and if he can put it together he will be ready for a high caliber opponent. Like I said, Penn is tough and he has the right staff behind him and experience to beat Rodriguez, but I don’t trust him to get it done. Rodriguez wins a decision over Penn.

    Winner: Yair Rodriguez, Decision

    Robert Winfree: I’ve spent the last week or so trying to convincing myself that BJ Penn can beat Yair Rodriguez. Penn is a truly gifted fighter, his passing game is breathtaking and despite his tenure in a sport where replication runs rampant, no one can copy his passes and control from that position. Penn has also dealt with a lot of high level fighters, he’s unlikely to fall into the flashy spinning techniques of Rodriguez and could just punch him in the face repeatedly. Penn is also a solid takedown artist, nothing spectacular but generally efficient and once on top of you you’re in serious trouble. Honestly if this were a three round fight I could see Penn winning the first two rounds, gassing and conceding the third but taking the decision. Adding to my indecision is that Rodriguez isn’t nearly as good as the UFC wants you to think he is. He’s not bad, but he’s still rather raw and has a lot of work to do with his overall game. I mean his fight with Alex Caceres saw the two of them mercilessly abuse the open space between them, all that poor air. That said the biggest thing I took away from that fight for Rodriguez was his conditioning, he faded a bit over five rounds but considering his output and energy levels in the fifth his cardio held up tremendously well. In the end though, BJ Penn is still almost 40 and competing at featherweight, had a long layoff, and he hasn’t won a fight since 2010. Consider this for a moment, the entirety of Yair Rodriguez’s professional career has taken place since Penn’s last win. This is MMA and it’s a crazy sport, I’m not entirely discounting Penn’s chances but I really don’t like them.

    Winner: Yair Rodriguez, TKO, Round 3

    Dan Plunkett: I spent too much time thinking about the realities of this fight for my column on Sunday, so here’s what should happen: Rodriguez throws all sorts of crazy kicks, maybe even a triple lindy for good measure, but misses. After that, Penn takes him down, mounts him, cuts him, takes his back, traps his arm, heel kicks him in the ribs, chokes him out, stands up, licks the blood off his gloves, slaps himself in the face a bunch of times, goes over and picks Rodriguez up, hugs him, and probably kisses him on the cheek. Wouldn’t that be nice?

    Winner: BJ Penn, Submission, Round 1

    The staff picks Yair Rodriguez, 2-1.


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