Only Velasquez Stands in the Way of Overeem’s UFC Title Shot

Alistair Overeem rode a wave of momentum into the Octagon in 2011. After years of fighting around the world and carving out a nice bridesmaid’s spot in the light heavyweight division, Overeem jumped up – and bulked up – and turned heads at heavyweight. Heading into his UFC debut, he’d gone lossless in his past eleven fights, eight of which were dominant, destructive first round finishes. On the other side of the coin, he made waves in kickboxing. A 2008 upset knockout win over K-1 star Badr Hari launched Overeem into a serious kickboxing career. In December 2010, he reached the pinnacle, stopping Peter Aerts in 67 seconds to win the last meaningful K-1 World Grand Prix tournament.

Although he was certainly dominant and impressive, Overeem’s 2008-11 run still left questions. How would he stack up against the wrestlers that occupied the top of the UFC’s heavyweight division? When he began to step in the cage with elite heavyweights consistently, would he prosper as he had against the James Thompsons and Todd Duffees of the world, or fall back to the fighter with a questionable chin and unquestionably inadequate conditioning that fell to Rogerio Nogueira and Shogun Rua?

His UFC debut didn’t answer any of those questions definitively, but it gave every indication that he’d respond strongly to the challenges offered up by the UFC. He seemed to validate the UFC’s move to scoop him up from sister company Strikeforce – a move that helped strain relations with Strikeforce broadcaster Showtime – as well as the million dollar signing bonus and PPV cut they offered. Over half a round, Overeem stalked an illness-weakened Brock Lesnar, who rode his horse around the cage lest he be met by a limb that had felled vastly more competent strikers than he. But it was only a matter of time. A liver kick spelled the fights end, and propelled Overeem into what was to be a hotly anticipated and lucrative championship match with Junior dos Santos.

That’s about when everything went to hell, a turn south that almost guaranteed “The Reem” a spot on a future Bleacher Report slide show of the most disappointing UFC fighters. He failed a drug test – one that he allegedly tried to flee from – only to be granted leniency that allowed him to return 11 months later. When he could have waited a few months longer and challenged for the heavyweight title, he instead returned as a heavy favorite against Antonio Silva, who knocked him out in the third round – Silva surviving into the third round was a surprise in the first place. Next, a strong start utilized too much energy, and Travis Browne promptly knocked him out. He returned in a potential do-or-die fight against Frank Mir, playing it safe for a decision win – certainly not the performance the UFC signed him for. It was a win, but it didn’t change the momentum; after that it was Ben Rothwell’s turn to score an upset knockout.

Then there was daylight. In April 2014, Overeem joined the Jackson-Wikeljohn team in New Mexico. The Rothwell loss was a false start, but things began to roll with a knockout of Stefan Struve – Overeem’s first stoppage victory since besting Lesnar three years earlier. Following a victory over Roy Nelson, Overeem flattened former champion Junior dos Santos; he and Cain Velasquez are the only men in the UFC to accomplish that feat. Finally, on Sunday, Overeem pleaded his case for a title shot with a second round knockout of Andrei Arlovski.

On Saturday, Fabricio Werdum defends the heavyweight championship against Stipe Miocic. Barring a major controversy or a draw, it’s a fight unlikely to produce an immediate rematch since neither is a big box office attraction and there are more lucrative alternatives. After this coming Saturday, that leaves Overeem and Cain Velasquez in serious title contention.

Velasquez is set to return in July after more than a year on the shelf, which will be the fourth time that has occurred in his career. The first time was early in his career when his reputation scared away potential opponents to the point he couldn’t get a fight and was then rushed into the UFC. The following two year-plus layoffs were the product of injury. He returned after a 13-month absence to face Junior dos Santos in 2011, and was knocked out in the first round. Four years later, he carried the weight of a 20-month layoff into a title defense against Fabricio Werdum, who took his title by submission in the third round. An immediate rematch was set for February, but a Velasquez injury tore the fight apart. Although this time he’ll return against someone lesser than an elite title contender, if history repeats itself, Overeem will receive his golden ticket.

However, if Velasquez wins in July, the top contender spot won’t be so easily decided. Perhaps Werdum or Miocic will favor a shorter turnaround time, which would be a positive for Overeem, but it’s more likely the heavyweight title will be defended again late in the year, which keeps the door open for Velasquez. An impressive performance from Velasquez, like his first beatdown of Antonio Silva, may push him ahead of Overeem since he is the more proven attraction.

A Werdum victory on Saturday would likely favor Velasquez more than Overeem, if only slightly. Overeem has twice fought Werdum, once a decade ago when both were different fighters, and a second time five years ago. For the viewing audience, the rematch was horrendous, a full-length feature on tentativeness. Comparatively, while Velasquez vs. Werdum was more decisive, it was also worlds more exciting.

A Miocic victory wouldn’t necessarily favor either fighter, but the UFC brass may be drawn to the heavy leather that would be thrown in a Miocic vs. Overeem title bout.

At another point in time, Overeem, with his hulking physique and crushing knockout power, would have been the clear favorite to secure the title shot in a similar situation. The aura he built between the fall of Pride and joining the UFC has been slammed by wrecking ball after wrecking ball. However, an aura can only take you so far. It landed Overeem a nice contract and a heavyweight title shot, but he blew the opportunity. Now he’s fought his way back to a new opportunity. The aura hasn’t been rebuilt and is likely irreparable at this stage against this level of competition, but Overeem has rebuilt himself into a legitimate title contender.

Dan Plunkett has covered MMA for 411Mania since 2008. You can reach him by email at [email protected] and follow him on Twitter @Dan_Plunkett.