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411’s MMA Roundtable Preview – UFC on Fox: Shevchenko vs. Pena
WELCOME:
UFC returns to Fox with a battle of bantamweight contenders! In the main event, Valentina Shevchenko and Julianna Pena clash with a potential title shot hanging in the balance. At welterweight, Donald Cerone faces Jorge Masvidal. In heavyweight action, Andrei Arlovski takes on Francis Ngannou. Plus, Alex Caceres vs. Jason Knight, and more!
THE STAFF:
https://youtu.be/ct38v7_Dn50
Preliminary Card
UFC Fight Pass
Lightweight Bout: Jason Gonzalez vs. J.C. Cottrell
Flyweight Bout: Alexandre Pantoja vs. Eric Shelton
Fox Sports 1
Light Heavyweight Bout: Marcos Rogerio de Lima vs. Jeremy Kimball
Middleweight Bout: Eric Spicely vs. Alessio Di Chirico
Light Heavyweight Bout: Luis Henrique da Silva vs. Jordan Johnson
Welterweight Bout: Bobby Nash vs. Li Jingliang
Bantamweight Bout: Raphael Assuncao vs. Aljamain Sterling
Middleweight Bout: Nate Marquardt vs. Sam Alvey
THE MAIN CARD:
Featherweight Bout: Alex Caceres vs. Jason Knight
Jeffrey Harris: After winning his UFC debut to Tatsuya Kawajiri, Jason Knight won his last two UFC bouts against Dan Hooker and Jim Alers by Decision. He faces Alex Caceres, who is looking for a much needed win here after a tough loss to Yair Rodriguez. Knight’s a lesser known talent, but he does have a decent record behind him, and he’s 2-1 in the UFC. Caceres may not be an elite level talent, but he has proven to deserve his spot on the roster more often than not. I’m predicting Caceres wins this one with his unorthodox striking and underrated grappling.
Winner: Alex Caceres, Decision
Robert Winfree: This is kind of an odd choice to open the main card in terms of name value, but Jason Knight hasn’t had a bad fight in the UFC yet and Alex Caceres did just main event a Fight Night. Jason Knight has somewhat quietly gone 2-1 in the UFC, only losing when he stepped in to fight Tatsuya Kawajiri on short notice. Knight has some good punching skills and leg kicks, also a really good guard and solid offensive wrestling game. If you’ve never seen him before, think of him like a smaller Diaz brother with better wrestling and an actual kicking game. Alex Caceres isn’t the worst fighter in the UFC anymore, but he’s really somewhat pedestrian. He’s got some spinning attacks but they’re not very effective, he’s a good but not great grappler, he really excels when he can fight long or get to a dominant position on the mat. I’m going with Knight here, and I think this winds up being a bit of a coming out party for him. The best part of this fight will likely be the visual as Caceres smiles all the time and Knight has a constant mean mug.
Winner: Jason Knight, Decision
Lorenzo Vasquez III: Knight has improved since his debut loss in the UFC. He is gritty, conditioned, and moves forward with volume. He has a nice counter jab and fires back when his opponent brings the heat. He has good wrestling and knows how to play the submission game. Caceres is a middle of the road fighter. He can maintain his position but he isn’t moving up a notch anytime soon. The guy is unreliable. He can be unnecessarily flashy but he can also work from range with smooth and fast footwork. But that isn’t always the case and his striking isn’t particularly dangerous, especially, when his opponent doesn’t respect his ability. While Caceres has experience and the ability, look for Knight to lack respect for Caceres and get in his face with strikes.
Winner: Jason Knight, Decision
The staff picks Jason Knight, 2-1.
Heavyweight Bout: Andrei Arlovski vs. Francis Ngannou
Jeffrey Harris: Francis Ngannou is a surging heavyweight prospect right now. One would have to view this fight as an opportunity to give him a big win over a former heavyweight champion and future Hall of Famer. Credit to Andrei Arlovski. I thought his career was done, but he managed to come back and have a pretty impressive run. But, it looks like that time is over again. Ngannou is a very tough, exceptional grappler, and he hits very hard. I think Ngannou’s key here is to get this fight to the mat. He doesn’t want to stand and trade with Arlovski because that’s Arlovski’s best chance to win the fight. I think Ngannou gets this to the mat and finishes Arlovski there. Ngannou could very well be in the title mix within the next year or so.
Winner: Francis Ngannou, TKO, Round 2.
Robert Winfree: Andrei Arlovski had a good career resurgence, but it seems that time has passed. Arlovski still excels when he can bait his opponent into a brawl, because Arlovski is very good in those kinds of exchanges as his technique maintains a high level while his opponents goes out the window. Francis Ngannou isn’t a brawler, he snipes with one or two punches and has shown discipline in that regard as well. Arlovski’s chin is a little compromised, and even if it wasn’t Ngannou hits like a truck. If Arlovski is fast and mobile he could possible frustrate Ngannou by hitting in and out while moving, and Arlovski still has some serious power of his own. On the whole though I think Ngannou remains patient and clips Arlovski with a power shot.
Winner: Francis Ngannou, TKO, Round 1
Lorenzo Vasquez III: At one point, it looked like Arlovski was on the verge of getting a title shot. Then Stipe Miocic took it all away from the former champion. Nonetheless, Arlovski is a veteran, and if you can’t put him away, he’ll fight to the bitter end (but he tends to get put away rather easily—glass jaw, they say). Still, Arlovski is a fast and powerful striker who can hold his own on the ground, if need be. The question is, can he handle a young, athletic, fast, and powerful striker like Ngannou? Ngannou appears to have sound striking and a developing ground game, but he hasn’t faced the cream of the crop. This fight should tell us where Ngannou really stands in the heavyweight division. If he can get past the savvy and gritty veteran we will have a new contender and you gotta love that in the shallowest of shallow divisions. Anyway, I’m routing for Ngannou but the bet isn’t without concerns. Arlovski has the experience and skill to get the job done. I just don’t like his jaw; and, I believe Ngannou will tag it hard.
Winner: Francis Ngannou, KO, Round 1
The staff picks Francis Ngannou, 3-0.
Welterweight Bout: Donald Cerrone vs. Jorge Masvidal
Jeffrey Harris: This is an outstanding welterweight contest. The winner could easily find themselves in the title mix at welterweight very soon. Cerrone has looked fantastic since moving up to welterweight, and he’s produced great results. Masvidal is on a pretty good roll himself. Arguably, this is the type of big opponent and matchup he’s been looking for in the UFC for quite some time. It’s really the biggest opportunity he’s had since he faced Gilbert Melendez for the lightweight strap in Strikeforce. Cerrone is really the guy who tends to beat himself, and that’s why I think he wins here. This is the type of fight I believe he wins impressively. Masvidal is well rounded, but Cerrone has more weapons, more ways to win and just more everything than Masvidal. He’s a better grappler, submission artist and BJJ practitioner as well. He’s also a more dangerous striker. I see this being a tough fight, but Cerrone edges it out.
Winner: Donald Cerrone, Decision
Robert Winfree: I love this fight, I really wish it had five rounds to play out over. Donald Cerrone has only lost to Anthony Pettis and Rafael dos Anjos in the last three years and has been on a tear at welterweight. Cerrone is a dynamic striker, he mixes kicks and punches together as well as anyone in the sport and is an all action fighter. Jorge Masvidal is a tad under appreciated, he’s a very good fighter. Masvidal has superb boxing skills, a great chin, and a good kicking game that he uses a little more sparingly. Both men can wrestle, both men fight well in the clinch, both men hit hard, there’s nothing not to love about this fight. I’m leaning towards Cerrone given how good he’s looked lately, but don’t be surprised if Masvidal wins this one.
Winner: Donald Cerrone, Decision
Lorenzo Vasquez III: Get ready for fireworks. Cerrone is a Thai Kickboxer with an excellent submission arsenal. Whether you’re standing or on the ground, you cannot discount Cerrone. Cerrone works best when given the time to set up his work. His foot and head movement are sound and he works in effective combinations. Cerrone can shoot or look for takedowns from the clinch, though it’s not his bread and butter. Masvidal can strike but he is not polished in comparison to some of the elite strikers in the division. He does have great counters when opponents more straight at him. He is a wrestler with a sound submission set. Masvidal is game, and his strong suit is that he can adjust on the fly. The problem is, he tends to struggle with pulling the trigger. This should be a war, folks. Unfortunate for Masvidal, Cerrone will out point him. That’s if Cerrone doesn’t find the finish in the second or third.
Winner: Donald Cerrone, Decision
The staff picks Donald Cerrone, 3-0.
Bantamweight Bout: Valentina Shevchenko vs. Julianna Pena
Jeffrey Harris: It’s great this fight is five rounds because it could produce the next title contender at bantamweight. Pena has been doing well lately, but so has Shevchenko. Her only loss in the UFC was to current champion Amanda Nunes. But that was a three-round decision that ended with Shevchenko looking like the stronger, fresher fighter. She faces The Ultimate Fighter winner in Pena, who has wins over Jessica Eye and Cat Zingano. Shevchenko here brings some elite level kickboxing. Meanwhile, Pena has very good takedowns and MMA wrestling. She’s very good at getting the fight to the ground and controlling her opponents there. Pena’s flaw is that she tends to be a bit of a boring grinder. I think this fight being five rounds really favors Shevchenko. She did excellently in that setting against Holly Holm, a former champion and the first woman to topple Ronda Rousey. I like Shevchenko here. However, I do see ways that Pena could win and come out on top. Either way, this is a very good contest between two rising and talented fighters in the division.
Winner: Valentina Shevchenko, TKO Round 4
Robert Winfree: This fight should crown the next title challenger at women’s Bantamweight. Julianna Pena has earned her shot here through hard work, she has a very good grappling game and tries to force you into that area. She has good rides and control, if she gets mount or even a position as somewhat innocuous as the ride, she can control and grind out a win. Unfortunately her striking, especially her upper body movement and defense, has been quite poor to this point. Valentina Shevchenko has tremendous kickboxing ability and a strong clinch game, plus her grappling is solid. If Pena can force this fight to the mat consistently she can win, but we’ve not seen Pena fight over five rounds and Shevchenko is easily the most technical fighter she’s ever faced. Between Shevchenko’s strength in the clinch and superior striking I’m leaning towards her shutting Pena down and taking this one.
Winner: Valentina Shevchenko, Decision
Lorenzo Vasquez III: The winner of this fight likely gets the next crack at the women’s bantamweight champion, Amanda Nunes. This fight matches a striker and grappler. Shevchenko is primarily a striker—Kickboxer—and showed much promise in her loss to the Nunes and win over Holly Holm. She plays a cool cat inside the cage holding back and picking her counters. She is hardly one to march forward like her opponent, Pena. Shevchenko has sound wrestling defense, she is strong, and she can work well in the clinch. Pena is aggressive, by all means. She is primarily a wrestler/submission grappler. She has solid wins over Jessica Eye and Cat Zingano. Pena usually swarms with little technique, skill. Her offensive wrestling is her biggest asset. Her ability to find a good and dominating position is what wins her fights. The objective for both fighters is clear. Shevchenko needs to keep her cool, counter, and work her defense and clinch. Pena needs to get this fight to the ground and work for position and take it from there. Pena is an athlete with good conditioning but she is sloppy. Shevchenko is the sharper fighter with better craft and, after outclassing Holly Holm, she looks ready for a rematch with Nunes. Pena needs to clean up her game before she steps on the train. Shevchenko will pick up a decision victory Saturday night.
Winner: Valentina Shevchenko, Decision
The staff picks Valentina Shevchenko, 3-0.
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