Bellator NYC: An Underwhelming, Noteworthy PPV Spectacle

Bellator NYC will be remembered as a night in which many things went wrong, but in large part it was not a show built with the pieces to make a great night the likely outcome.

The promotion took risks in three key bouts, none of which paid off all too well.

The main event pitted Chael Sonnen against Wanderlei Silva, big names beginning to make the rounds in the senior circuit. Sonnen and Silva have a famous rivalry dating back years, and a fight between the two would have been big business three years ago. The idea was to capitalize on that feud in 2017, but it didn’t work in reality as well as it did in theory. There was difficulty in bringing them together in person prior to the bout, and then underwhelming results when they were eventually brought together in the few days leading into the fight. A one-armed, half-hearted shove from Silva during a press conference did little to bring back the heat the feud had in 2014.

When Sonnen vs. Silva was scheduled in 2014, it was slotted third from the top on a loaded show. On its own as a UFC pay-per-view main event at that time, it could have drawn 500,000 buys. It is too early for reliable pay-per-view numbers for Bellator NYC, and early indicators do not lean strongly in a positive or negative direction. The show did more than 200,000 searches on Google; UFC 206 in December was at that same level, and was estimated at 150,000 pay-per-view buys. Based on that alone, Bellator President Scott Coker’s stretch goal of 200,000 buys seems very unlikely. Bellator’s only other pay-per-view, 2014’s Bellator 120, headlined by Quinton Jackson vs. Mo Lawal, did a bit better than 100,000 buys. By all rights, Bellator NYC should beat that show handily. It had more big names, took place in a bigger market, and the promotion as a whole is hotter than it was in 2014. Most likely, it was also a much more expensive show to produce.

With a stronger build to Sonnen vs. Silva, perhaps the show could have reached 200,000 buys, which would be viewed as a major success. The promotion should be happy with 150,000 buys, and below 125,000 would probably be a disappointment.

When the main event fighters finally reached the cage, in some ways it went better than expected. There was no awkward Bellator Old Man Fight finish – which has plagued similar bouts that Bellator has put together – and the two got started with an engaging first round. However, the bout slipped sharply from there, with long periods of inactivity and Silva did little to better his position each time Sonnen planted him on his back. By the end, they had lost the crowd, which resorted to chanting taunts at Tito Ortiz. It was a largely forgettable bout, which may have been a better result than most alternatives.

The semi-main event aimed to draw upon nostalgia, with Fedor Emelianenko returning to fight in the United States for the first time in six years. After being on the receiving end of a drubbing from mid-level former UFC light heavyweight Fabio Maldonado one year ago, few would argue that the all-time great is more than a fraction of his prior form. Even six years ago, fans saw clear declines as the once invincible “Last Emperor” was stopped in three consecutive fights. Although the betting odds were close for Emelianenko’s bout on Saturday with Matt Mitrione, a sad result was likely, and a sad result it was.

In perhaps the oddest occurrence on a night of abundant oddness, Emelianenko and Mitrione scored with simultaneous right hands causing a double knockdown – the first such occurrence I can recall in a major promotion. Mitrione immediately recovered, but Emelianenko, once mythicized for displays of quick recuperation in fights with Kazuyuki Fujita and Kevin Randleman, never got back in the fight. Mitrione knocked him out cold seconds later.

Emelianenko shrugged off retirement talks after the fight, and Chael Sonnen challenged him after his victory in the main event. That is the type of fight Bellator would put together, but they should instead sit Emelianenko down for “the talk.” It is clear Emelianenko has no business fighting top 20 heavyweights at this stage. Sonnen is not that, and people will justify the fight based on the fact that Sonnen is not a heavy puncher, would be at a weight disadvantage, and Emelianenko would be favored to win. All are true, but when you have to start searching for justifications for matchmaking an old fighter, it’s past time for that fighter to step away.

Similar reasoning was made leading into the Kazushi Sakuraba vs. Shinya Aoki match that Rizin promoted in 2015. Of course, Emelianenko has not fallen to nearly the depths of Sakuraba, and Sakuraba was never favored in the bout, but they are similar in the prevailing notion that one fighter, Aoki in this case, would not be able to hurt his more past-prime opponent. Naturally, Aoki proceeded to beat Sakuraba down; it was a shameful fight. Perhaps Emelianenko will beat Sonnen; it may even draw a vintage performance out of Fedor, but it will only lead to another Emelianenko beat down.

Seven years ago, the UFC decided to stop promoting Chuck Liddell, one its most bankable stars, following his third consecutive knockout loss. It may have been a fight or two late, but UFC was lauded for the move. This is Bellator’s Chuck Liddell situation. Based on Scott Coker’s apparent willingness to promote Liddell himself in 2017, it is unlikely they are contemplating stopping Emelianenko, but that decision is the wrong one in every sense.

The third risky key match on the show was the Spike TV headliner, which saw Ryan Bader take the light heavyweight title from Phil Davis by split decision. The two had a bad fight two years ago, which Bellator acknowledged, but pushed that things would be different this time around, despite any indication it would be based on each fighter’s subsequent performances. Instead of having a bad three round fight like two years ago, Davis and Bader went out and had a bad five round fight.

Televising a portion of the preliminary card has been a staple of MMA pay-per-view events since 2009, and there is sparingly little evidence to lead one to believe that the televised preliminary cards either help or hurt pay-per-view sales. I can only recall one fight – the great brawl between Leonard Garcia and Chan Sung Jung in 2010 – that a significant number of people credited with helping the pay-per-view, and the pay-per-view sales ended up outperforming expectations. Most people buy pay-per-views to see specific stars or specific fights, and their purchasing decision will not be swayed by the preliminary card. However, it may be that an exceedingly excellent preliminary card headliner may help a pay-per-view, and a really bad preliminary card headliner may hurt a pay-per-view, and we have just seen too few of those extreme cases to notice a correlation. In any case, Davis vs. Bader certainly did not benefit the pay-per-view that followed.

Outside of those risky bouts, Bellator did its best to put on a good show, but it was one of those weird nights in which even those did not go well. The pay-per-view opened with the Douglas Lima vs. Lorenz Larkin welterweight title bout, objectively the best matched bout of the night. It was very close, but aside from a slick left hook from Lima in the second round, the fight was mostly unmemorable. (One positive did come out of it, as Bellator did a good job of promoting Rory MacDonald as the next title challenger.)

In the evening’s third title fight, Michael Chandler, one of the promotion’s most dependably exciting fighters, injured his ankle less than a minute into his lightweight title defense against Brent Primus. Chandler admirably fought on and even scored a knockdown, but the fight was stopped before the halfway point of the first round due to the injury.

In another risk, Bellator debuted Aaron Pico, perhaps the most promising and hyped prospect in MMA history, against 10-fight veteran Zachary Freeman, who was no pushover. Pico came out aggressive and confident, but Freeman dropped him with an uppercut and submitted him with a guillotine in seconds. It was a disappointing debut, but professional debuts are almost never overly impressive. Pico can still become the great fighter many have tabbed him to be.

Overall, it was not a great show, as the risky bouts did not exceed expectations to the point of overshadowing their drawbacks, and most of the remaining bouts were not as good as expected. However, it was not a negative show. Scott Coker indicated the promotion is targeting another pay-per-view offering for early 2018, and when that show rolls around, the memory of Bellator NYC will not dissuade anyone from purchasing that show. The next pay-per-view will succeed or fail based on its own merits, as Saturday’s show was not strong or weak enough to have any affect on it.

One thing the show will affect is the strength of Bellator shows in its immediate aftermath. Bellator promoted its next three shows all night long, but its next two shows are exceptionally weak in terms of name value. Bellator’s next show is headlined by Brandon Girtz vs. Derek Campos, names few casual fans watching the show would recognize and even fewer are interested in watching. Then they have an event in August featuring Andrey Koreshkov vs. Chidi Njokuani. Even if they had a great show on Saturday, it would have been hard to carry that momentum to these events.

Since the top two fights on Saturday were responsible for virtually all of the pay-per-view sales, it would have been sensible for Bellator to have pushed Davis vs. Bader, Lima vs. Larkin, or Chandler vs. Primus to July in order to have a big fight to promote and build some momentum. Since it was not a good show and didn’t build momentum for their next show, Bellator has limited its definition of success for the show to the live gate (where they apparently did well) and pay-per-view sales. They wanted to put on the biggest event in Bellator history and did just that, but if pay-per-view returns are only middle of the road and they missed out on other opportunities to benefit, does putting on the biggest event in company history mean anything?

Going forward, Bellator has no easily identifiable pay-per-view main event caliber fight for the near future. Emelianenko vs. Sonnen would be a tough sell, as Sonnen needs a verbal sparring partner to engage with him. Perhaps they will go the ensemble route with a stacked card, but pay-per-views are sold on the top two – sometimes three – fights, and in many cases, the main event is the only fight that matters to most buyers. Bundling your best television draws for pay-per-view – leaving your monthly television fight cards weak on name value – is ripe for failure if you do not have the right fight(s) to draw at the top of your pay-per-view. Perhaps a viable pay-per-view headliner will present itself in the coming months, or Bellator will make a key free agent signing, but as of now, there is no obvious direction for the next pay-per-view.

Rather than setting a date and trying to fit square pieces into a round hole, Bellator will be better off waiting for the right fight to present itself. The allure of pay-per-view dollars is enticing, and represents the capital to sign name free agents and grow the promotion. However, chasing pay-per-view has failed for so many promotions, and the returns are never as rich as expected. Find the right fighters, develop them, watch for the right fights, and everything will fall into place.

Dan Plunkett has covered MMA for 411Mania since 2008. You can reach him by email at [email protected] and follow him on Twitter @Dan_Plunkett.