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December 16, 2023 | Posted by Robert Winfree
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MAIN CARD (Pay-per-view, 10 p.m. ET)
Champ Leon Edwards (170 lbs.) vs. #3 Colby Covington (169.5 lbs.) – for welterweight title
Champ Alexandre Pantoja (125 lbs.) vs. #2 Brandon Royval (124.5 lbs.) – for flyweight title
#5 Shavkat Rakhmonov (171 lbs.) vs. #6 Stephen Thompson (171 lbs.)
Tony Ferguson (155.5 lbs.) vs. Paddy Pimblett (155.5 lbs.)
#6 Josh Emmett (146 lbs.) vs. #10 Bryce Mitchell (145.5 lbs.)

PRELIMINARY CARD (ESPN2/ESPN+, 8 p.m. ET)
#15 Dustin Jacoby (204.5 lbs.) vs. #14 Alonzo Menifield (204.5 lbs.)
#5 Irene Aldana (136 lbs.) vs. #9 Karol Rosa (135.5 lbs.)
Cody Garbrandt (136 lbs.) vs. Brian Kelleher (136 lbs.)
Ariane Lipski (126 lbs.) vs. #12 Casey O’Neill (125 lbs.)

PRELIMINARY CARD (ESPN+, 6:30 p.m. ET)
#15 Cody Durden (126 lbs.) vs. #12 Tagir Ulanbekov (126 lbs.)
Lucas Almeida (146 lbs.) vs. Andre Fili (145.5 lbs.)
Martin Buday (264.5 lbs.) vs. Shamil Gaziev (259.5 lbs.)

Hello everyone and welcome to 411mania’s LIVE coverage of UFC 296, I’m Robert Winfree and I’ll be your host for the evening. Well everyone, we made it. This is the last UFC event of 2023, and man in so many ways has this been a forgettable year for the UFC. Between Dana White slapping his wife, the existence of Power Slap, the ongoing revelations of poor pay for UFC fighters, the UFC and USADA relationship ending, a boatload of obvious promotional lies from Dana White and the UFC, the loss of Francis Ngannou, weird preferential matchmaking, and frankly I could go on but I think you get the jist of it. The actual in cage action this year has been pretty solid, and the UFC is hoping to close the year strong and start fresh in 2024. Our main event here is a welterweight title fight when champion Leon Edwards goes for his second title defense against two time title challenger Colby Covington. Fun fact but Covington can be the first fighter in UFC history to go 0-3 in undisputed title fights if he loses here. The co-main is a flyweight title fight as newly minted champion Alexandre Pantoja tries to begin his title run with a defense against Brandon Royval, these two fought back in 2021 with Pantoja submitting Royval in the second round but Royval’s won three in a row and is trying to continue the recent tradition of hot potato that this title has. Fun fact, this is the first flyweight title fight in 5 years to not feature either Deiveson Figueiredo or Brandon Moreno. We’ve also got rising force Shavkat Rakhmonov taking on Stephen Thompson, Josh Emmett taking on late replacement Bryce Mitchell, and Tony Ferguson is trying to stop his six fight losing streak against the UFC’s next anointed golden boy Paddy Pimblett. Things are a little slimmer on the prelims but Cody Garbrandt vs. Brian Kelleher should deliver fireworks if nothing else. So with a good main card, let’s hope the action is memorable as the year comes to a close.

UFC 296 comes to the world from the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada, USA. On commentary we’ve got Jon Anik, Joe Rogan, and Daniel Cormier. This is not one of my favorite trios, Cormier and Rogan frequently wind up traveling down weird rabbit holes. Megan Olivi will be doing roving reporting, and Din Thomas might chime in from time to time. Since we’re in Nevada we’ll have instant replay if necessary, and keep in mind we’re in the larger 30 foot cage set up.

Martin Buday is on a 12 fight winning streak including four wins in the UFC, given that heavyweight seems to always need new talent if he can extend that momentum here it should set him up nicely to start tackling ranked opponents next year. Shamil Gaziev is undefeated coming into his UFC debut with only one of his fights going the distance, he’s hoping to remain perfect and make a good first impression to the UFC audience. We’re starting out with a technical pick ’em, -115 for Buday to -105 on Gaziev.

Heavyweight Bout: Martin Buday (13-1, 264.5 lbs.) vs. Shamil Gaziev (11-0, 259.5 lbs.)

ROUND ONE: These two are the same height while Gaziev has an inch and a half of reach advantage. They touch gloves to get us started. Bit of a right from Gaziev as he stalks forward. They split jabs, Gaziev seems to have more power at the moment. Gaziev fires a combination, mostly blocked. Knee from Gaziev but Buday catches it and forces a clinch then puts Gaziev on the fence. Buday with some knees to the leg and body but he’s bleeding from the bridge of the nose. Gaziev spins free and they reset with punches. Some rights from Gaziev but he’s throwing a lot into all of these punches, if Buday survives I’m not sure Gaziev can maintain this pace. Uppercut from Gaziev, Buday’s nose is really bleeding at this point. Gaziev avoids a clinch but a lot of what he’s throwing is blocked. We get a break, there’s a cut around the left eyebrow that the ref wants the doctor to check on. The cut is under the brow a bit but we’re good to continue. Buday tries a double leg, Gaziev stuffs it and gets on top in half guard. Some rights from Gaziev land then he tries a forearm choke but that rarely works as a finishing technique. Another right from Gaziev. Buday rolls to his knees and looks to wall walk, Gaziev kind of pushes him back down and looks to land punches. Buday stands and Gaziev lands a couple of knees to close the round.

SCORECARD: 10-8 Gaziev but a borderline one

ROUND TWO: The doctor checks on Buday again before the round starts, Buday wants to fight and they’ll let it go for a bit longer. Gaziev looks a little tired, he comes out swinging punches and walks into a left hook. Elbow from Gaziev, Buday didn’t like that and is covering up along the fence. Some punches upstairs and down from Gaziev, Buday isn’t fighting back enough for the ref and the ref steps in.

OFFICIAL RESULT: †WINNER – Shamil Gaziev via TKO, punches, at :56 of Round 2

Mic time for Gaziev and the translator, he’s happy with the win and has been dreaming about being in the UFC ever since he started training and thanks his team back in Bahrain. He’s the first Bahraini fighter to make it to the UFC and then thanks the ruler of Bahrain for helping support MMA in the country.

I’m fine with this kind of stoppage, Buday stopped putting up resistance and that’s when you step in.

Andre Fili has a completely forgettable UFC record of 10-9 with 1 No Contest dating back to 2013, he’s hoping to avoid another losing streak here and go 1-1 on the year. Lucas Almeida has gone 1-1 in the UFC, he’s had four fights fall through during his UFC tenure and now looks to avoid his first ever losing streak and affirm that he’s found his feet in the division. Fili is the favorite at -165 while +140 for Almeida is a decent little upset bet.

Featherweight Bout: Lucas Almeida (14-2, 146 lbs.) vs. Andre Fili (22-10 1 NC, 145.5 lbs.)

ROUND ONE: These two are the same height while Fili has three inches of reach advantage. Southpaw for Fili. Fili stalks forward at first, he’s trying to find a rhythm. Almeida tries an inside leg kick, that’s checked and that cannot have felt good. Both men land punches in close. Bit of a jab from Almeida. Fili is switching his stance as he circles around. Calf kick from Almeida then they trade punches. Body kick from Fili. They trade calf kicks. Calf kick from Almeida but Fili cracks him with a right that drops him, he gets on top and unloads with ground and pound until the ref steps in.

OFFICIAL RESULT: †WINNER – Andre Fili via TKO, punches, at 3:32 of Round 1

The First Round Finish Club thanks Mr. Fili for his work this evening. Mic time for Fili, he notes the last time he talked with Joe Rogan was in his UFC debut, and notes he’s buried a man who was like a little brother to him and had to put his dog down just before he came to Vegas for fight week. That’s a rough month or so. He talks us through the finish and says his company has given him the best and worst moments of his life and he’s happy to be back on the high side of that.

Nice stuff from Fili here, notice the slight delay on the right hand after he misses his left. That ability to change the tempo helped as if he’d followed it with traditional timing it probably doesn’t land this cleanly.

Tagir Ulanbekov has gone 3-1 in the UFC only losing to Tim Elliott, he’s coming off of a win and is trying to build another winning streak while defending his ranking. Cody Durden has gone 5-2-1 in the UFC but he’s on a four fight winning streak and is looking to start a climbing the rankings by taking out Ulabekov. The odds are with Ulabekov at -170 to +140 on Durden.

Flyweight Bout: #15 Cody Durden (16-4-1, 126 lbs.) vs. #12 Tagir Ulanbekov (14-2, 126 lbs.)

ROUND ONE: These two are the same height while Ulanbekov has three inches of reach advantage. They touch gloves to get us going. Ulanbekov avoids a calf kick then lands one of his own. Durden pushes forward and lands a right hand. One two from Ulanbekov. Durden keeps showing the calf kick but Ulanbekov is pulling his leg back. Durden walks into a right hand and he’s down, Ulanbekov then grabs a guillotine choke but loses position as they scramble and Durden winds up on top in full guard. Ulanbekov starts off balancing Durden and sweeps him then grabs a front headlock as they stand and they break as both men miss strikes. Jabs from Ulanbekov then they clinch up and Ulanbekov pushes things into the fence. They start jockeying for position and trade knees then break with a jab from Ulanbekov. Both men land punches in close. Durden lands a right hand. They get close and trade punches again. Some jabs go back and forth then they tie up and hit the fence again. Very nice outside trip from Ulanbekov and he gets on top in full guard. Some elbows are traded now as Durden scoots towards the fence. Durden wall walks and Ulanbekov moves to the ride position then gets both hooks in, nice back take there. Ulanbekov starts fishing for a choke and gets it after a bit, Durden is able to break the grip though just before the round ends.

SCORECARD: 10-9 Ulanbekov

ROUND TWO: Duren comes out swinging for the second round. Ulanbekov with a bit of a knee. Some jabs from Ulanbekov, Durden with a right hand then a knee and they clinch. Ulanbekov with a quick outside trip and gets back on top in full guard. Bit of a left from Ulanbekov. Durden lands an elbow off of his back but Ulanbekov lands a few more strikes in response. Ulanbekov passes to half guard then moves to the back as Durden tries to stand. Ulanbekov gets a body triangle as Durden stands and he’s in the backpack position. Choke attempt from Ulanbekov, that’s tight this time but again Durden can break the second grip before having to tap. Some lefts from Ulanbekov as he’s still trying to open up the choke. Another choke attempt from Ulanbekov, but again Durden’s hand fighting is keeping him alive. Ulanbekov adjusts the choke, it’s across the jaw but he can finally leverage it as he pulls things back to the mat and Durden tries fighting off the choke one last time before having to tap.

OFFICIAL RESULT: †WINNER – Tagir Ulanbekov via Submission, rear naked choke, at 4:25 of Round 2

Mic time for Ulanbekov and the translator, he’s happy to be on a big card like this and warns the champion and challenger to take good care of his belt that he’ll take eventually. He knew he had to finish the fight and did his job in that respect. To close dedicates the win to the late Abdulmanap Nurmagomedov and people suffering in the middle east.

Here’s the finish. This is another reminder that you don’t need to be under the chin to compress the relevant blood vessels, if you’re across the jaw but can get the mechanical leverage you can still compress everything down and force the submission.

Casey O’Neill suffered her first professional loss in her last fight when she dropped a decision to Jennifer Maia, now she’s trying to rebound and avoid her first losing streak. Ariane Lipski has gone 3-3 in her last six fights but is 2-0 since returning to flyweight this year and will be trying to close out the year with a win over a ranked opponent. O’Neill closed at -185 to +155 on Lipski.

Women’s Flyweight Bout: Ariane Lipski (16-8, 126 lbs.) vs. #12 Casey O’Neill (9-1, 125 lbs.)

ROUND ONE: These two are the same height while O’Neill has two inches of reach advantage. Both women come out swinging. Lipski lands a right hand in close. O’Neill lands a calf kick. They trade rights but Lipski is firing longer combinations and it’s messing with O’Neill. O’Neill forces a clinch and they hit the fence. Lipski with some knees before they break. O’Neill lands a right hand. Left hook from O’Neill. Right from O’Neill, Lipski lands a left hook after that. Bit of a right from O’Neill. Both women have strikes blocked. Lipski lands a leg kick. They both miss rights. Hard one two from Lipski seems to rock O’Neill for a moment. They tie up and trade knees then Lipski lands a right hand. Lipski lands a right hand to counter a leg kick. Both women fall short with punches, then O’Neill tries a takedown and they hit the fence, Lipski with a hip toss and then makes O’Neill stand. Bit of a right from O’Neill. Lipski blocks some punches then they trade rights. Calf kick from O’Neill. Another calf kick from O’Neill, those are adding up already. Lipski avoids a calf kick to close the round.

SCORECARD: 10-9 Lipski

ROUND TWO: Both women come out jabbing, then Lipski wobbles O’Neill with a right hand. Lipski with more punches, O’Neill tries a low single leg but Lipski rolls through and gets on top. Punches from Lipski now, O’Neill rolls to her knees and tries to get something going. Lipski is on the back but has no hooks, and she pulls O’Neill backwards and gets the hooks in. Armpar attempt from Lipski, that’s pretty bad and O’Neill has to tap.

OFFICIAL RESULT: †WINNER – Ariane Lipski via Submission, armbar, at 1:18 of Round 2

Lipski gets an interview, she thanks everyone watching and puts over God then puts over her team for all of their work. She talks us through the finish and notes the more she improves her grappling the more her striking opens up in the cage. To close she speaks some Portuguese for the people back in Brazil.

We don’t get the actual catch of the armbar here, but this is a nasty finish from Lipski. Hopefully that elbow isn’t badly damaged because O’Neill waited as long as possible before tapping.

Cody Garbrandt is a former bantamweight champion but has been on a really rough stretch lately, he’s just 2-5 in his last seven fights and if he can win here it will give him his first winning streak since 2016. Brian Kelleher has gone 2-2 in his last four but he’s on a two fight losing streak, though a win over a former champion like Garbrandt would be the biggest win of his career. It’s not really surprising to see Garbrandt as a -190 favorite to +160 for Kelleher.

Bantamweight Bout: Cody Garbrandt (13-5, 136 lbs.) vs. Brian Kelleher (24-14, 136 lbs.)

ROUND ONE: Garbrandt is two inches taller while Kelleher has half an inch of reach advantage. They touch gloves to get us going. Some stance switching form Kelleher as he moves forward. Garbrandt with a bit of a left hook then Kelleher lands a calf kick. Bit of a right from Garbrandt. Garbrandt with a combination in close but Kelleher lands another calf kick that starts him backing up. Hard calf kick from Kelleher. Kelleher blocks some punches. Garbrandt lands a calf kick. Another calf kick from Kelleher, Garbrandt really didn’t like that one. Kelleher comes forward, misses a front kick but then tries a takedown against the fence. Garbrandt defends and is able to spin free after a bit of clinching. Forward pressure from Garbrandt but he can’t quite find the target. Kelleher lands a calf kick, then another and Garbrandt is not liking those so he forces a clinch on the fence. Elbow from Garbrandt as they break the clinch. Kelleher keeps coming forward and blocks a blitz from Garbrandt. Uppercut from Kelleher but Garbrandt landed a right hand at the same time and Kelleher is a little wobbled. Garbrandt pushes forward, eats another calf kick but lands another right hand that drops Kelleher and that’ll end things.

OFFICIAL RESULT: †WINNER – Cody Garbrandt via KO, punches, at 3:42 of Round 1

The First Round Finish Club thanks Mr. Garbrandt for his work this evening. Mic time for Garbrandt and he points out that his left calf is kind of messed up and puts over Kelleher as a fighter. He talks us through the finish and puts over his coaches for refining his skills in his new camp. He puts over the UFC performance institute and wants to fight Deiveson Figueiredo in April or May. I am very down for that fight.

Garbrandt needed to show this kind of consistency, this doesn’t show the exchange that first hurts Kelleher but the follow up right when Kelleher is throwing a naked calf kick ends things. That’s the way you fall when your jaw is seriously hurt.

Irene Aldana has gone 4-2 in her last six fights but she’s coming off of a truly poor performance when she fought for the title back in June, she’s hoping to overcome the stigma that’s likely to follow her after giving up multiple 10-8 rounds in the same fight and get a little momentum for next year. Karol Rosa has traded wins and losses while going 3-2 in her last five fights, she’s coming off of a win though and is looking for not only the biggest win of her career but also her first winning streak since 2021. Relatively close one but Aldana closed at -180 to +150 for Rosa.

Women’s Bantamweight Bout: #5 Irene Aldana (14-7, 136 lbs.) vs. #9 Karol Rosa (17-5, 135.5 lbs.)

ROUND ONE: Aldana is four inches taller with an inch of reach advantage. They touch gloves to get us going. Aldana circles and looks to jab. Inside leg kick from Rosa. Bit of a one two from Aldana, Rosa lands a leg kick in response. Jab from Aldana. Rosa lands another inside leg kick. Bit of a calf kick from Rosa, then another inside leg kick. Rosa blocks a combination then lands a hard calf kick. Another calf kick from Rosa. Aldana falls short on a one two and eats another calf kick. Rosa is really chewing up that lead leg of Aldana, inside high on the thigh while outside are calf kicks. Aldana’s limited offense is really becoming a problem, Rosa has a great read on her right now and is avoiding punches and landing kicks. Right hand then an inside leg kick from Rosa. Aldana eats a calf kick but does land a right hand. Stiff jab from Aldana. Rosa with another inside leg kick. Seems like half of Rosa’s combinations end with that inside leg kick and it’s really starting to break down Aldana’s base. Inside then an outside leg kick from Rosa. Aldana lands a left hand but eats another leg kick. Rosa lands a right hand. Another right from Rosa then an inside leg kick, and Rosa punctuates the round with a high kick that’s partially blocked.

SCORECARD: 10-9 Rosa

ROUND TWO: Aldana comes out looking to punch but Rosa is still blocking and countering. Calf kick from Rosa. Inside leg kick from Rosa then a combination. Another combination from Rosa that ends with an inside leg kick. Rosa lands another inside leg kick. Aldana’s left leg is visibly messed up, and Rosa lands another right hand. Left hand then an inside leg kick from Rosa. Aldana lands a right hand. Another right from Aldana, Rosa fires back and they brawl for a few seconds before Rosa lands a leg kick. Rosa lands another inside leg kick. Aldana is trying to force things with forward pressure and volume, it might be starting to work. Rosa lands another inside leg kick. Bit of a right from Aldana, Rosa lands another inside leg kick. Aldana lands another right hand, there’s swelling around the left eye of Rosa now. Left hook from Aldana in close, then Rosa lands a right hand and an inside leg kick. More inside leg kicks from Rosa land. Left hook then a right hand from Rosa. They split jabs. Hard calf kick from Rosa. Aldana with another jab. Rosa hits the body then lands a calf kick. Inside leg kick from Rosa. Right hand from Aldana stuns Rosa but she fires back and we get a brawl to close the round.

SCORECARD: 10-9 Aldana, 19-19 overall

ROUND THREE: Aldana lands a right hand to start the round. Rosa lands an inside leg kick. Another inside leg kick from Rosa. Bit of a right from Rosa, Aldana lands a right of her own then Rosa lands an inside leg kick. They split jabs then Rosa lands an inside leg kick. Another inside leg kick from Rosa. Aldana blocks some punches then eats an inside leg kick. Rosa with a right hand then an inside leg kick. Aldana blocks a couple of punches. Bit of a left hook from Aldana. Bit of a right from Rosa then an inside leg kick. More pressure from Rosa now, she lands a right hand then an inside leg kick. Left from Rosa but Aldana lands a left hook to the body that seems to hurt Rosa. Aldana comes forward and they trade more punches. Right from Aldana, Rosa then lands a one two and an inside leg kick. Aldana lands a left to the body. Rosa lands an inside leg kick. Uppercut from Aldana then they trade jabs. Another left to the body from Aldana. They trade jabs again. Aldana lands an uppercut but then eats a combination. Rosa with an inside leg kick. Aldana lands a left hook. Rosa again with the inside leg kick. Aldana walks into a left hand but fires a right of her own. Rosa’s face is a mess, and Aldana’s isn’t much better. They trade punches then Rosa lands an inside leg kick. We get one more bit of brawling to close the round, heck of a fight from both women.

SCORECARD: 10-9 Aldana but a close one, 29-28 Aldana overall

OFFICIAL RESULT: †WINNER – Irene Aldana via unanimous decision (29-28 x3)

That’s Fight of the Night so far by a considerable margin. Mic time for Aldana as Rogan puts over the fight, she puts over Rosa as a tough fighter and is just glad to be back fighting. She notes she came in with a long time knee injury but she trains to swallow the pain and just keep going forward. She mentions hearing her corner tell her to go to the body and puts over her team and says she owes them the title, and still wants to get that for them and for Mexico.

Alonzo Menifield has a four fight unbeaten streak going right now, the best of his UFC run, and another win here would set him up nicely to take on bigger names going forward. Dustin Jacoby just broke a two fight losing streak with a first round TKO win and is looking to move up in the rankings with a win here. The odds are solidly behind Jacoby at -280 while +225 on Menifield might be a tempting value bet.

Light Heavyweight Bout: #15 Dustin Jacoby (19-7-1, 204.5 lbs.) vs. #14 Alonzo Menifield (14-3-1, 204.5 lbs.)

ROUND ONE: Jacoby is three inches taller but the reach is identical. They touch gloves to get us going. A bit of feinting from Jacoby as both men circle. Menifield misses a couple of wide punches. Jacoby lands a jab. More jabs from Jacoby, he’s just using his frame and distance management to handle things. Leg kick from Jacoby. Jacoby lands another jab. Menifield keeps missing on his hooks and Jacoby is sniping at him. That jab from Jacoby is still working. Menifield lands a left hook. Jacoby has started switching his stance and lands a body kick. Bit of a right from Jacoby. Menifield tries a takedown, Jacoby tosses him aside and gets back to pressure. Jacoby lands a right to the body then a right to the head. Bit of an elbow from Jacoby and they clinch up on the fence. Jacoby with a knee as they fight for position. Some knees to the leg and body from Jacoby as he’s got Menifield on the cage. Body shots from Jacoby in close, he’s landing several of those and Menifield doesn’t like them. Knee from Jacoby, Menifield fires punches that don’t really land. Jacoby with another knee and that’ll be the last blow of the round.

SCORECARD: 10-9 Jacoby

ROUND TWO: Jacoby gets back to moving and jabbing right away. Menifield lands a left hook that badly staggers Jacoby but Jacoby circles away and is able to recover. Jacoby is back to jabbing, he’s putting a little more snap on it now. They clash on leg kicks. Menifield lands a calf kick. Jacoby lands a jab. Menifield lands another calf kick. Inside leg kick from Jacoby, but Menifield is able to land a right hand counter. Jacoby lands a calf kick. Right hand from Jacoby, Menifield lands a counter right but Jacoby lands a left that wobbles Menifield. Jacoby gets on offense but Menifield cracks him with a left hook and we’ve got a back and forth series of punches. Menifield lands a calf kick. Both men are trying to work the jab now. Another jab from Jacoby. Stiff jab from Jacoby, then another one, Menifield didn’t like that and his right eye is bleeding. Bit of a calf kick from Jacoby. Menifield lands a calf kick. Jacoby with another jab. Menifield avoids a right hand and lands a glancing left. One two from Jacoby. Menifield clinches up and they trade as they break to close the round.

SCORECARD: 10-9 Menifield, 19-19 overall

ROUND THREE: They touch gloves for the last round. Jacoby lands a calf kick. Some jabs go back and forth then Jacoby lands a one two. More jabs from Jacoby, then Menifield lands a calf kick. Bit of a right from Menifield. Menifield lands a left hook. Front kick from Jacoby, his pressure is working now and he lands a right hand. Another one two from Jaocby. Jacoby lands a one two, eats a left hook and then fires back with a combination. More jabs from Jacoby then a double jab and a right hand. Man that jab from Jacoby is working overtime now and Menifield’s face is a mess. Menifield lands a left hook that drops Jacoby, he looks to follow up but Jacoby stands on the fence and ties up. Takedown from Menifield, he’s on the back as Jacoby is trying to wall walk. Jacoby stands and lands a knee then an elbow in close. Body shots in close from Jacoby. They fight for position for a bit, Menifield moves towards the back but Jacoby spins into him. Jacoby and Menifield fight for position for a bit more, then trade punches on the break. 10 seconds left, Menifield pushes into another clinch and the round ends.

SCORECARD: 10-9 Menifield, 29-28 Menifield overall

OFFICIAL RESULT: †WINNER – Alonzo Menifield via unanimous decision (29-28 x3)

Pretty darn good fight, but no interview for Menifield as we’re short on time for the PPV to start.

That’s it for the prelims, onto the main PPV card.

Josh Emmett has lost his last two fights against Yair Rodriguez and Ilia Topuria, in fact his last win was a split decision that I thought he lost against Calvin Kattar. Emmett is trying to halt this skid and remind everyone that he’s still an elite featherweight. Bryce Mitchell had a bad loss last year but rebounded in Sept with a win over Dan Ige, he took this on short notice replacing Giga Chikadze but he could get one of the better wins of his career if he can get by the battle tested Emmett. The odds think he’ll do just that, -250 on Mitchell to +205 on Emmett.

Featherweight Bout: #6 Josh Emmett (18-4, 146 lbs.) vs. #10 Bryce Mitchell (16-1, 145.5 lbs.)

ROUND ONE: Mitchell is three and a half inches taller but the reach is identical, Mitchell is also 9 years younger. Emmett starts out circling, both men doing some hand feinting. Emmett lands a right to the body. Another right to the body from Emmett. A bit of stance switching from Mitchell now as they move around. More circling and feinting from both men. Emmett then gets close and ENDS Mitchell with a single right hand then walks off as Mitchell convulses in the fetal position.

OFFICIAL RESULT: †WINNER – Josh Emmett via KO, PUNCH, at 1:57 of Round 1

The First Round Finish Club thanks Mr. Emmett for his work this evening. Mitchell is more or less conscious but he can’t walk without help as he congratulates Emmett on the win. Mic time for Emmett after that late KO of the Year contender, he thanks Mitchell for taking the fight on short notice and calls himself the most powerful featherweight in the world. He talks us through the finish and thanks his coaches for all of their work, noting 2023 was tough for him but now he’s back and wants to stay active next year.

Here’s the finish. That’s among the most brutal knockouts in UFC history.

Tony Ferguson is a legend of the sport with a bevy of wins, memorable fights, and impressive finishes. Unfortunately Ferguson is also almost 40 years old and is currently tied with Elvis Sinosic, Phil Baroni, and Hector Lombard for the second longest losing streak in UFC history at 6. For those curious BJ Penn holds the actual record at 7. Ferguson is trying to get his first win since 2019 and prove he’s still a worthwhile member of the roster. Paddy Pimblett has gone 4-0 in the UFC but his last fight was a little over a year ago and he got a decision that most sane people thought should have gone the other way. Pimblett is trying for a high profile win here and hopefully get some fan sentiment back on his side after his handling of the last win and some pretty public gaffs. Pimblett is one of the bigger favorites tonight at -340 to +270 on Ferguson.

Lightweight Bout: Tony Ferguson (25-9, 155.5 lbs.) vs. Paddy Pimblett (20-3, 155.5 lbs.)

ROUND ONE: Ferguson is an inch taller with three and a half inches of reach advantage, Pimblett is 11 years younger though. Ferguson opens orthodox but will switch around as he feels necessary. Pimblett misses a jab. Ferguson stalks forward and lands a body kick, Pimblett now trying out southpaw. Calf kick from Pimblett. Ferguson lands a right hand. Left from Ferguson off balances Pimblett. Pimblett lands a body kick. Ferguson easily avoids a takedown attempt. Right hand from Ferguson then he jabs the body. Pimblett lands another body kick then a calf kick behind it. Stiff jab from Ferguson. Ferguson with another right to the body, then a left to the body and he avoids a sloppy left hook. They split jabs. Ferguson jabs forward. Pimblett jabs the body. Front kick from Ferguson then they trade calf kicks. Pimblett lands a right hand then eats a left hook. Calf kick then a one two from Pimblett. Pimblett lands a couple of rights, Ferguson is backing up now. Bit of a left from Ferguson. Ferguson lands a couple of body shots. Pimblett is bleeding from the nose now and they trade in close. Ferguson checks a leg kick then lands an inside leg kick. Left from Ferguson lands, but Pimblett lands a flurry then a flying knee drops Ferguson. Pimblett jumps on Ferguson on the mat and looks to unload, Ferguson does enough to stem the offense then Pimblett moves to his back. Both hooks in for Pimblett and he lands punches. Ferguson keeps moving and gets butterfly guard. Pimblett passes to half guard as the round ends.

SCORECARD: 10-9 Pimblett, might be a 10-8 argument in there

ROUND TWO: Ferguson lands a jab to start they round then they trade punches in close. Front kick from Ferguson. Pimblett lands a slapping left hook. Ferguson slips trying a head kick and Pimblett gets on top in full guard. Immediate elbows from Ferguson and he works his guard up high but Pimblett just postures through it. Ferguson keeps throwing elbows but Pimblett lands a flurry of punches. Rubber guard from Ferguson, he’s after a triangle choke but has to bail on it. Pimblett lands a punch. Some body shots from Pimblett now as he’s got Ferguson up against the fence. There’s a bit of blood coming from Pimblett, I think it’s still just the nose despite the elbows. Pimblett looks to pass and gets to half guard but Ferguson gets his butterfly hook back. Full guard now for Ferguson, he seems content to just be on the bottom for the last minute of the round. Pimblett postures up and lands a few punches to the body. The round ends with Pimblett still on top.

SCORECARD: 10-9 Pimblett, 20-18 Pimblett overall

ROUND THREE: Ferguson comes out jabbing the body. Bit of a right from Pimblett. A couple of body punches from Ferguson land. Uppercut from Ferguson lands. Pimblett misses a left hand. Ferguson lands another left to the body, Pimblett might not have liked that one. Pimblett tries a takedown but bails on that as Ferguson grabbed at a d’arce choke. Pimblett looks tired, Ferguson is still landing body shots. More rights to the body from Ferguson. Pimblett tries a single leg and gets the takedown into full guard. Ferguson with some elbows but he’s not doing the things necessary to get up. Bit of an elbow from Pimblett. Pimblett passes to half guard and starts looking for an arm triangle. Ferguson gets out of danger and gets full guard back. Some more elbows from Ferguson but he needs to get up. Ferguson tries to kick Pimblett off but Pimblett stays on him. Last minute and Pimblett lands a couple of punches. Ferguson grabs at a seated arm triangle choke, he loses the arm grip though and Pimblett just retains top position. Ferguson inverts but can’t find an arm or a choke. Pimblett lands a couple of punches and the round will end on the mat.

SCORECARD: 10-9 Ferguso as Pimblett didn’t do a whole lot, 29-28 Pimblett overall

OFFICIAL RESULT: †WINNER – Paddy Pimblett via unanimous decision (30-27 x3)

Don’t agree with Pimblett in the third, but I’m surprised at no 10-8’s in the first. Mic time for Pimblett, he puts over Ferguson as a legend and has no idea how Ferguson survived the first round and admits he punched himself out trying for the finish in the first. He knew the grappling would favor him and he could put it to work and feels he won every round quite easily. Asked about the future he feels better but would have liked a finish. To close he dedicates the win to a friend who passed and some friends still alive, and he was never going to lose with his kids here watching him fight for the first time.

Shavkat Rakhmonov is undefeated and has finished all of his fights thus far, his 5-0 run through the UFC has earned him this relatively high profile spot and high profile opponent and if he can get another win and finish he could be fighting for the belt next year. Stephen Thompson has twice before fought for the welterweight title but that was back in 2016-17, more recently he’s 3-2 in his last five fights and halted a two fight losing streak with a low key Fight of the Year contender a little over a year ago. Now Thompson is trying to halt the almost meteoric rise of Rakhmonov and prove he might still be around the top of the division. Rakhmonov is the biggest favorite on the card at a whopping -650 to +470 on Thompson.

Welterweight Bout: #5 Shavkat Rakhmonov (17-0, 171 lbs.) vs. #6 Stephen Thompson (17-6-1, 171 lbs.)

ROUND ONE: Rakhmonov is an inch taller, has two inches of reach advantage, and is 11 years younger. Thompson opens southpaw and they touch gloves. Both men with some feinting. Rakhmonov stalks forward and is looking to corral Thompson against the fence. Thompson lands a left hand but Rakhmonov gets a clinch on the fence. Rakhmonov with some knees to the leg. A few short punches from Rakhmonov to the body and head then a knee to the body as well. Thompson fights off a level change but he can’t get out of this clinch. A series of rights from Rakhmonov land in close. High crotch lift from Rakhmonov, but he can’t quite finish it and keeps the clinch. Another right from Rakhmonov lands, he’s got one of Thompson’s legs up and punches him but Thompson wont fall over and they clinch up again. Rakhmonov with another knee to the body. Not a whole lot going on here and Thompson is able to spin free and reset. Thompson lands a body kick. Another body kick from Thompson. Rakhmonov misses a right hand and Thompson lands a left. They stare away the final seconds.

SCORECARD: 10-9 Rakhmonov

ROUND TWO: Thompson lands a couple of side kicks. Rakhmonov lands a right hand. Body kick from Thompson. They trade jabs as Rakhmonov is still pushing forward. Double leg from Rakhmonov but Thompson is able to stop that but winds up clinched on the fence again. Rakhmonov with knees to the body then starts looking for a takedown. Thompson is fighting to stay upright, Rakhmonov grabs a leg and finally spins him down against the fence. Rakhmonov is trying to flatten Thompson out but Thompson is working to wall walk. Rakhmonov grabs the right arm of Thompson and looks to handcuff him with it then lands some lefts to the body and head. That right arm of Thompson is almost in a hammerlock. Rakhmonov pushes Thompson over and grabs at a choke but he’s not on the back so Thompson is able to turn into him and avoid but he eats elbows for that effort. Half guard for Thompson right now, and Rakhmonov is looking to drop elbows. More elbows from Rakhmonov then some punches. D’arce potential for Rakhmonov, he’s slowly working that in as he’s landing rights to the head. Rakhmonov bails on that, Thompson scoots to his knees and Rakhmonov moves to the ride position. Another choke attempt from Rakhmonov, no hooks but Thompson still winds up tapping with just seconds left in the round.

OFFICIAL RESULT: †WINNER – Shavkat Rakhmonov via Submission, rear naked choke, at 4:56 of Round 2

18-0 with 18 finishes, Rakhmonov is the truth boys and girls. Mic time for Rakhmonov and the translator, he’s asked about being the first man to submit Thompson and he thanks Kazakhstan as it’s Independence Day in that country then puts over Thompson and is happy to have finished him and says he’s deserving of a title shot. I don’t necessarily disagree with him. He wants the winner of Covington and Edwards to close.

Brandon Royval has only lost to Brandon Moreno and Alexandre Pantoja in his UFC run and brings a three fight winning streak into his first title shot. Royval is hoping to avenge his most recent loss and claim UFC gold all in one fell swoop. Alexandre Pantoja is on a four fight winning streak including a Fight of the Year contender from July when he won the title from Brandon Moreno, now he’s hoping that war didn’t take too many years off of his career and to get his first title defense under his belt. The odds are with the champion Pantoja at -200 to a +165 comeback on Royval.

Flyweight Title Bout: (c) Alexandre Pantoja (26-5, 125 lbs.) vs. #2 Brandon Royval (15-6, 124.5 lbs.)

ROUND ONE: Royval is four inches taller but only has half an inch of reach advantage. They touch gloves, southpaw for Royval. Pantoja instantly pushes at him with punches and an inside leg kick. Pantoja pushes for a double leg, but Royval fights him off. They trade leg kicks, the pace already is nuts. Inside leg kicks are traded but Pantoja is kicking harder. Pantoja lands a right hand and they clinch up on the fence. Royval is able to spin free and reset. Jab from Royval. Pantoja lands a body kick. Another body kick from Pantoja, Royval didn’t like that one. Royval misses a head kick. Another body kick from Pantoja, they clinch up and Pantoja lands a knee then hits a double leg into full guard. Pantoja passes to half guard. Royval is trying to keep distance and scrambles around, Pantoja stands over him now and looks to enter the guard again. Right hand from Pantoja lands and he goes back into the guard. Royval is keeping his legs active as Pantoja stands over him and lands punches. Royval tries to start a wall walk, but Pantoja pulls him away from the fence and gets half guard. Pantoja lands some lefts. Royval looks to invert for a leg or the back but Pantoja out scrambles him and moves to side control. Full mount now for Pantoja, good grief his passing is impressive. Royval is able to hip escape to half guard. Royval kicks Pantoja off and stands. Bit of a left form Royval. Pantoja with another body kick. They trade rights then Pantoja lands a calf kick to close the round.

SCORECARD: 10-9 Pantoja

ROUND TWO: Pantoja gets back on pressure right away. Royval fights away from a clinch on the fence then eats a body kick. Bit of a leg kick from Pantoja. Minor internet issues but I come back to Pantoja on top in half guard. Pantoja is working to pass and gets to side control. Mounted crucifix attempt from Pantoja but Royval is able to shrimp to half guard. Things are stalling out a bit as both men throw some weak punches. Pantoja lands some solid hammer fists as Royval gets full guard. Pantoja stands and they reset on the feet. One two from Pantoja badly staggers Royval but he doesn’t follow up. Body kick from Pantoja. Royval lands a head kick but gets taken down into side control. Royval gets half guard but eats elbows along the way as the round ends.

SCORECARD: 10-9 Pantoja, 20-18 Pantoja overall

ROUND THREE: They touch gloves for the third round. Royval is trying to up the tempo now, but Pantoja lands a right hand. They clinch up and hit the fence then Pantoja lands a body kick on the break. Inside leg kick from Royval but Pantoja catches it and hits a takedown into half guard. Pantoja immediately looks to pass again and threatens an arm triangle position. Mount and Pantoja still has the arm triangle, Royval scrambles and Pantoja tries for the back but they wind up just scrambling back up to their feet. Pantoja looks a little tired, but the pace has been kind of nuts. Body kick from Pantoja. Royval lands a jab. Bit of a right from Pantoja. Royval misses a head kick. Pantoja tries a takedown, that hits the fence and Pantoja lands a body kick again as they break. Royval is still trying to push the pace, Pantoja lands a calf kick then a body kick. A right from Pantoja seems to stun Royval for a second. Body kick from Royval and he avoids a takedown attempt. Inside leg kick from Pantoja, he looks tired now. Some jabs from Royval as he circles then lands a knee to the body. Pantoja tries a takedown and gets the single leg and moves to half guard. Pantoja is again trying for that arm triangle but winds up bailing on it. Lefts from Pantoja to the body and head as he’s looking to pass again. Another arm triangle attack from Pantoja but can’t get it going and just swings some more lefts as the round ends.

SCORECARD: 10-9 Pantoja but a close one, 30-27 Pantoja overall

ROUND FOUR: Pantoja quickly forces a clinch and hits a double leg against the fence. Royval tries to scramble from under but Pantoja passes to half guard. Pantoja looks for mount but winds up in half guard on the other side. Now Pantoja tries to mount again, Royval is really fight to block it but ultimately can’t. Royval moves to his knees and Pantoja spins to his back, both hooks in and starts looking for the choke. Pantoja is one of the very best back takers in the sport. Body triangle now for Pantoja. Royval is hand fighting well enough but getting out of this position is going to be tricky. More choke attempts from Pantoja, he gets across the face and cranks, adjusts his grip but Royval is able to hand fight and break the grip. Royval tries to spin into Pantoja but that’s blocked. Pantoja tries to transition towards mount but Royval spins into him and gets on top and starts throwing. Pantoja with a heel hook attempt, that slows things down and Royval is able to end the round on top.

SCORECARD: 10-9 Pantoja, 40-36 Pantoja overall

ROUND FIVE: They touch gloves for the last round. Royval starts jabbing right away and looks to start a brawl. Both men swing punches, Pantoja looks tired though. Both men land jabs. Stiff right from Pantoja, then Royval lands an uppercut. Royval just looks to up the pace, then Pantoja lands a couple of calf kicks. Uppercut from Royval, and Pantoja kicks the calf again. Both men land punches in close then Pantoja kicks the leg again. Royval pushes into a clinch and they hit the fence. Elbow from Royval before he pulls out of the clinch. Pantoja lands a calf kick. Jab from Royval. Both men land punches again then Pantoja lands a body kick. Again they trade in close, this is kind of nuts for a fifth round. Royval lands a left hand but Pantoja takes him down off of it against the fence. Pantoja tries to keep Royval down, Royval wall walks but Pantoja knee picks him and gets on top in half guard. Royval is trying to do something on bottom but Pantoja is keeping him flat. Royval just doesn’t have a lot from half guard and Pantoja is keeping him here and peppering in punches. Lefts from Pantoja. Less than a minute left. Pantoja lands lefts and passes to side control then back to half guard as Royval tries to scramble. Full mount now for Pantoja and he lands punches. Royval is trying to scramble, he gets half guard back but Pantoja unloads with hammer fists as the fight ends.

SCORECARD: 10-9 Pantoja but another close one, 50-45 Pantoja overall

OFFICIAL RESULT: †WINNER – and STILL UFC Flyweight Champion Alexandre Pantoja via unanimous decision (49-46, 50-45 x2)

No issues with round three going to Royval, or five for that matter. Mic time for the champion, his family has joined him in the cage for a nice feel good moment and he thanks everyone and puts over the UFC. He thinks maybe the fight was boring but he had beat him and wants to be an aspirational figure for Brazilians. He’s being a little hard on himself from where I sit, this wasn’t a barnburner but it wasn’t boring. Once again he puts over Royval and thinks they’ll have another fight as Royval is going to keep winning.

Colby Covington has twice before challenged for the welterweight title, both times losing to Kamaru Usman. Covington scored a win 18 months ago when he beat Jorge Masvidal but is getting this title shot more on the back of his high profile than because he’s the most deserving contender. Despite the circumstances, Covington is trying to finally claim the undisputed title in what is almost certainly his last shot at doing so. Leon Edwards is the champion, hasn’t lost since 2015 and is coming off of back to back wins over the aforementioned Kamaru Usman. Edwards is going for his second title defense here and could definitively put the prior generation of top welterweights in his rear view with a win over Covington. Edwards closed at -165 to +140 on Covington.

Welterweight Title Bout: (c) Leon Edwards (21-3, 170 lbs.) vs. #3 Colby Covington (17-3, 169.5 lbs.)

ROUND ONE: Edwards is three inches taller with two inches of reach advantage. Both men fighting orthodox at first but both men will switch. Covington is doing a lot of switching as he probes with kicks. Edwards isn’t normally an orthodox fighter and he’s spending a lot of time in that stance. Not a lot going on. Covington fires a head kick that’s blocked. Pretty sedate fight thus far. Both men miss punches. Again both men miss punches. Bit of a left from Covington. They trade punches in close. Left hand from Edwards who has gone southpaw now. Edwards blocks a few punches. Covington tries a single leg, Edwards defends. Jab from Covington, Edwards counters with a left hand. Edwards lands a leg kick. They trade front kicks. Bit of a one two from Covington. Edwards lands a front kick. Leg kick from Edwards, then Covington misses a left hand to close the round.

SCORECARD: 10-9 Edwards but a profoundly uneventful round

ROUND TWO: Covington lands a body kick to start the round. Edwards is looking to press, Covington lands a jab. Body kick from Edwards. Edwards avoids a punch and lands a right hand. Bit of a left in close from Covington. A few kicks are going back and forth but we’re still having a very low activity fight. Edwards lands a left hand. Bit of an inside leg kick from Covington. Edwards easily avoids a couple of kicks. Covington lands a jab. Edwards keeps poking with the front kick and backing up Covington. Leg kick from Edwards. Covington misses an uppercut. The crowd is booing and I can’t blame them. Edwards lands a front kick. They kind of stare away the final seconds.

SCORECARD: 10-9 Edwards, 20-18 Edwards overall

ROUND THREE: Bit of a body kick from Covington. Edwards avoids a one two. Leg kick from Edwards. Bit of a right hook from Edwards then a leg kick. That right leg of Covington is visibly bruised. Covington tries a double leg, that hits the fence and he partially completes it and pulls Edwards away from the fence and gets on top in full guard. Edwards very quickly scrambles to his feet and lands a head kick. Edwards tries a takedown against the fence, he’s able to get it but Covington now scrambles back up and free. Bit of a leg kick from Edwards. Sort of a left hand from Covington. Edwards avoids a few punches. Another leg kick from Edwards. Edwards lands a leg kick. They trade leg kicks but that’s a losing proposition for Covington at this point. Edwards feints forward to close the round.

SCORECARD: 10-9 Edwards, 30-27 Edwards overall

ROUND FOUR: Edwards shows the jab again and is backing up Covington. Covington fires a head kick that’s blocked. Leg kick from Edwards. Covington tries a takedown, they hit the fence and Edwards grabs a ninja choke but Covington spins out of it and they reset. Covington checks a leg kick. Edwards lands a front kick. Left hand from Edwards, then a leg kick. Another front kick from Edwards. Covington lands a left hand, then a right hook and tries a takedown on the fence. Covington forces things to their knees but Edwards wall walks then escapes a clinch. Front kick and a jab from Edwards. Another front kick from Edwards. Covington with a left hand. Another left from Covington. Covington forces into a clinch and they hit the fence, they wrestle and Covington out wrestles Edwards and gets to a ride position. Some lefts from Covington but Edwards slips him over the top and they reset on the feet. Edwards avoids a left hand and lands a body kick to close the round.

SCORECARD: 10-9 Edwards but Covington’s best round thus far, 40-36 Edwards overall

ROUND FIVE: Edwards fires a head kick, that’s blocked. Bit of a body kick from Covington. They split jabs. Covington tries a single leg and eventually tree tops Edwards down. Edwards looks to wall walk right away, Covington moves to the back standing. They fight for position in the clinch, Edwards gets a takedown and moves to the ride now, and he puts one hook in looking for the back. Covington spins towards Edwards, Edwards has a triangle choke but loses it and Covington gets on top in full guard. 2:30 for Covington to get a finish, because there’s no chance he wins a decision. Covington with some elbows to the body and he moves to half guard. Edwards is kind of stuck here, but he doesn’t care much because he’s going to win the fight. Covington with some hammer fists, he thinks about an arm triangle but there’s only 10 seconds left. The fight ends with Covington on top.

SCORECARD: 10-9 Covington, 49-46 Edwards overall

OFFICIAL RESULT: †WINNER – and STILL UFC Welterweight Champion Leon Edwards via unanimous decision (49-46 x3)

Well that fight sucked out loud. Mic time for Edwards, he knew he was better than Covington everywhere and just shut him down all fight. He wanted to grapple with Covington a bit and prove he’s a great mixed martial artist and is happy to get his second title defense and tie GSP with the most wins in a row in the division. He mentions Covington using his fathers murder for cheap attention and he had to work hard to calm down. The rage he felt after that press conference needed to be controlled, he’s still very emotional about the whole thing. He is a bit disappointed that he couldn’t get the finish but knows Covington is a great competitor but a terrible human being.

Covington gets an interview as well, this should be something. He admits the layoff affected him, puts over the first responders and military people, and advocates for Donald Trump to be president next year. He calls the fight easy and thinks he doesn’t have a scratch on him, this is obviously untrue if you look at his face. Asked about the game plan he admits to having made a mistake in an early adjustment, but he’ll get back soon and thought he won the fight and promises to come back stronger. To close he insults the fans, because why not at this point.

Well on that note, UFC 296 and the UFC’s 2023 come to a close. We’ll unpack all of the fallout from this event tomorrow on the 411 Ground and Pound MMA Podcast. At some point in the next few weeks I’ll be writing up my 2023 Year End Awards so be on the lookout for that if you’re interested. The next time I’ll be back here is January 13th for the first Fight Night of 2024 and I hope you’ll be here as well. Until then thank you again, congratulations on making it through the year, stay safe out there, and keep checking 411mania for all of your pop culture needs.

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