Rousey vs. Holm II: Rematch Not the Best Move

The Ronda Rousey Era is officially over. Rather than beat to death the talking points of UFC 193, I would rather adjust another side of this whole issue. Post-UFC 193, it seems the talk on everyone’s lips is now the rematch. Dana White is already pushing Rousey vs. Holm II, and it looks like the next time the new women’s bantamweight champion and Rousey step into the Octagon it will probably be a rematch. However, is that really the best fight to make right now? I’m not sure it is.

I think the UFC’s penchant to book a rematch after a huge upset can be a mistake. Sometimes the situation calls for it if there is a controversial finish, a draw, or a bad decision. For Lyoto Machida vs. Mauricio Rua, Gray Maynard vs. Frankie Edgar and some other examples, the immediate rematches made sense. However, it seems whenever there is a big upset now in the UFC, the almost automatic outcome is to book an immediate rematch between those two. In some ways, there is the mindset that the first upset was basically a fluke. The rematch is a do-over to get the desired outcome. Look no further than Anderson Silva vs. Chris Weidman. Silva was effectively knocked out in the first fight. He was heavily favored and for good reaosn. When those two faced each other again for a rematch, Silva was still the betting favorite. Now look again at Frankie Edgar vs. BJ Penn. Penn was heavily favored for the first fight, and Edgar’s win was one of the UFC’s biggest upsets ever. When the two had their immediate title rematch, BJ Penn was still viewed as the heavy favorite. In both these cases, the former champions lost their respective rematches.

It’s happening again at heavyweight with Fabricio Werdum and Cain Velasquez. After Velasquez was on the shelf with injury for nearly two years, he finally defended his title again in Mexico against Werdum. Werdum won a huge upset and submitted Velasquez. Unfortunately, after the division was log-jammed at the top for almost two years, the UFC has opted to book yet another immediate rematch between Werdum and Velasquez for early next year. It makes absolutely no sense. Velasquez was a good champion, but he was hardly a record-breaking title holder. There was nothing controversial about his defeat. He might have been at a disadvantage because he was not properly prepared to fight Werdum at high elevation, but that is Velasquez’s own fault. An immediate rematch here makes absolutely no sense. I’m not saying Velasquez has to run a gauntlet in order to fight for the title again, but what is wrong for him getting back in line and winning a fight or two to get another title shot?

Another situation where booking the immediate rematch was a big mistake was Renan Barao vs. TJ Dillashaw. Again, you had a situation where a huge underdog upset and finished the much-hyped reigning champion. Barao was a great and dominant champion, but the dude got beat. There was no reason to book that immediate rematch against Dillashaw. Instead, Barao struggled to make weight for their fight and was forced to withdraw just a day before the event. We saw how that turned. And then we ultimately saw how the eventual rematch between Barao and Dillashaw went.

Ultimately, the UFC will make its own decisions on matchmaking. I do not believe a Rousey vs. Holm rematch is going to sink the business or everything. However, you almost get the sense that when UFC books these rematches, it’s almost a sort of attempt at course correction. What happened the first time was the wrong outcome, so we will try to get the right outcome this time. UFC 193 basically proves that all heavy odds stacked against Holm and all the armchair analysts and keyboard warriors who predicted Holm to get eaten alive were wrong. That includes everyone who is currently insulting Rousey, her striking and game plan. All those people who are currently trashing Rousey probably predicted she was going to destroy Holm and Holm was not a formidable match-up at all. But other than that, well we now know the unbeatable can be beaten. Rousey has been defeated. The dragon can be slain. So now that we know Rousey can lose, that just means there is just as high a likelihood that she can lose again. There is nothing wrong with that. The greatest fighters in this sport have all lost, even at points in their careers we never imagined that could be the case.

Obviously, Rousey will need some time off to recuperate. She probably needs some time to take a break and get away from it all. Being the face of the sport, while it brought her fame and fortune, has made everything about her private life public. I am not saying that was the reason she lost, but she is going to want some time away from the sport to either find her motivation again and get ready to fight again. Maybe she will want to change up her training camp. We shall see.

The problem is that an immediate rematch creates another log jam at the top of the division. There is undeniably big money in a Rousey vs. Holm rematch, but I think the first fight proves now that Rousey is not unbeatable. It also shows that Rousey will not be around forever. So now that Holm is champion, why not test her value and see how big of a draw she can be? You have another popular women’s MMA star who is on a four-fight winning streak and was previously promised a title shot in Miesha Tate. While Rousey is taking time off, why not book Holm vs. Tate for the title? Let’s see how Holm takes to being champion and how she matches up with some other experienced veterans. The rematch with Rousey really isn’t going anywhere. I am not saying Rousey needs to take a tune-up fight. Tune-up fights in MMA not the same as they are in boxing.

Right now it seems the UFC just has more tunnel vision regarding a Holm vs. Rousey rematch. However, the payoff for these immediate rematches does not always work out in the long run.