UFC 215: Nobody Wins in Nunes vs. Shevchenko

Eighteen months ago, Amanda Nunes and Valentina Shevchenko combined for a solid fight. Both had strong moments, and the fight ended as Shevchenko, the smaller and lesser-known fighter, was taking over. Although the fight was buried that night underneath the hype of Conor McGregor’s first meeting with Nate Diaz and a surprise championship upset when Miesha Tate strangled Holly Holm, it became highly relevant as both Nunes and Shevchenko rapidly gained momentum.

The closeness of the first bout and Shevchenko’s strength when the fight ended lent intrigue to a rematch. Could Nunes, now the world champion after smashing Tate and Ronda Rousey in consecutive bouts, beat Shevchenko in such a decisive manner as to declare herself the successor to Rousey’s famed dominance? Or would Shevchenko hang in there as she did in March 2016, and win the fight as Nunes faded in the championship rounds?

Unfortunately for everyone watching, the answer to both of those questions was a resounding and underwhelming, “no.”

It was not a bad fight, but it was just a fight. Both fighters were active, but they were not active enough in activities that conventional wisdom indicated would lead them to victory.

Amanda Nunes, who built her name and reputation by tearing through many opponents, exhibited an atypical lack of aggression. She controlled the center and had Shevchenko fighting with her back to the cage, but there was no display of the power that makes Nunes so dangerous. According to FightMetric stats, only 37% of Nunes’ significant strike attempts targeted the head. Compare that to 91.5% when she fought Rousey, 85.7% against Tate, and 65.4% when she fought Shevchenko the first time.

The knock on Nunes for her entire career has been conditioning. It cost her a win against Cat Zingano in 2014 in a fight she was far ahead in, and cost her a round against Shevchenko in 2016. She has been able to avoid conditioning issues in most of her fights because her overwhelming force often finishes opponents. But when that force fails to get the job done, trouble isn’t far in the distance.

Nunes fought like a fighter deeply concerned about conserving energy; she stated after the fight that she wanted to go five rounds. However, this was not a fighter showing off improved conditioning. We saw the same fighter that Nunes has always been on Saturday, just without all the parts of her style that made her so exciting to watch (and risked draining her energy). One of Nunes’ best attributes is her destructive top game, but none of it was on display Saturday, likely because grappling would be more tiresome than the striking game she played.

Of course, there is nothing wrong with Nunes’ approach in theory. She correctly observed that an aggressive striking attack would be a tremendous risk against a counter-striker as talented as Shevchenko. Along the same lines, Shevchenko survived on the bottom in their last fight, and she may have done the same if Nunes aimed to put her there this time around. With either approach, failure to put Shevchenko away early would have assured a loss.

Instead, Nunes played a dangerous at-range striking game, which almost cost her the championship anyway, just in a much less exciting way. She fought cautiously to a close decision victory, even capping it off with a takedown that led to zero offensive work. Sometimes, that is what a champion must do to keep the championship, but Nunes gained nothing in the 25-minute process. She did not establish herself as a dominant champion, and nobody will want to pay to watch the Amanda Nunes that competed on Saturday fight again.

Valentina Shevchenko fought even closer with Nunes than she did last time around. In a way, she proved herself as Nunes’ equal. However, that proof means little when, by nature of two important people scoring the fight for Nunes, Nunes hold the title – which leads to more money and more moneymaking opportunities – and Shevchenko does not. Worse, the quality of the fight and Nunes being up 2-0 in the series means Shevchenko is not close to another opportunity.

Shevchenko was comfortable in her role as the counter fighter. At times, she was very successful in that role, winning at least two rounds and arguably as many as four.

However, Shevchenko did little to wear Nunes down. She aimed only 13 of her 194 significant strike attempts at Nunes’ body, and she did not initiate grappling exchanges that would have forced Nunes to work more. Instead, she was content to strike at a distance, which allowed Nunes to enjoy a relaxed pace at her leisure. Although the fight could have easily gone the other way, this likely caused Shevchenko the championship.

Nunes and Shevchenko will move forward with their respective careers almost as though their second fight didn’t happen. Nunes will move on to fights with bigger names and opponents that figure to get a more exciting fight out of her. Shevchenko will of course still have the skills to beat Nunes, but she’ll have to win a few fights to get back to that opportunity. She may find a more immediate title shot in the new flyweight division, a weight class that will likely suit her even better than bantamweight.

Dan Plunkett has covered MMA for 411Mania since 2008. You can reach him by email at [email protected] and follow him on Twitter @Dan_Plunkett.