UFC Trudges Through a Cold Summer

You would be hard-pressed to find a better matched UFC on Fox main card than the offering this past Saturday. Topped by three former champions, the card delivered two excellent bouts highlighted by memorable finishes. In the main attraction, Dustin Poirier rattled Eddie Alvarez’s brain in a second-round stoppage. Before that, Jose Aldo paralyzed Jeremy Stephens with a body shot to score his first victory in two years. Just prior to that, Joanna Jedrzejczyk outworked Tecia Torres to earn the judges’ decision. By any measure, this was a first-class Fox card, but for some reason, it didn’t resonate with the larger audience.

Overnight TV viewership ratings—which are subject to adjustment since they measure the 8-10 PM time slot on the west coast of the United States, while the fight card aired in the 5-7 PM time slot—were abysmal. Per MMA Fighting, overnight ratings measured viewership at 1.461 million viewers, the lowest in series history. (Once again, this number will be adjusted by Tuesday to reflect the card’s actual viewership, so the 1.461 million number will quickly become irrelevant. However, for the purposes of this column, it does reflect a general lack of interest in the card.)

Saturday’s card wasn’t the first that didn’t quite click with the audience.

UFC 226 was UFC’s shining star of the summer, featuring Daniel Cormier’s coronation as a dual champion. While the idea of the light heavyweight champion fighting the heavyweight champion drew strong interest from the hardcore audience (accounting for an impressive $5.677 million live gate), it didn’t do as well as it should have on pay-per-view. According to industry estimates reported by the Wrestling Observer Newsletter, the show did 380,000 buys. In the modern age of the UFC, that’s a good number for a show without an elite tier star, but it fell far below what you’d expect from the first-ever encounter between the UFC heavyweight champion and the UFC light heavyweight champion. This speaks to how the UFC has diluted the value of its championships by hotshot bookings (throwing a big name into a championship match they’ve not come close to earning) and creating championships out of thin air to fill pay-per-view dates (for the most recent example, see Covington, Colby).

Through July, UFC 226 is the UFC’s highest pay-per-view seller, which makes the first time since 2005 (the first year of The Ultimate Fighter) that the promotion has failed to hit 400,000 buys with any single show by the end of July. Its other summer pay-per-view this year, UFC 225 featuring the rematch between Robert Whittaker and Yoel Romero, fell flat. UFC 220, highlighted by Francis Ngannou challenging for the heavyweight title, did well, but fell a bit short of expectations. Aside from UFC 223, which could have hit the 400,000 mark if not for an unfortunate series of late changes, the UFC’s other PPV events didn’t come close to the relatively low milestone.

Following several years of trends, this is now the norm for pay-per-view. Elite tier stars still draw numbers as big or bigger than they would have in any other era, but the baseline is much lower than it was six-plus years ago.) The UFC isn’t incentivized to slow down its pay-per-view schedule because each show is still profitable, and that’s money on top of their TV package rights fees.) What has made this year so striking is that the UFC hasn’t been able to produce a fight for an elite tier star. Perhaps that fact has had a ripple effect on the entire industry, as television ratings have declined not only for UFC on Fox, but also for the promotion’s main competitor, Bellator MMA on the Paramount Network.

The remainder of the summer doesn’t carry much promise. Next weekend’s UFC 227 presents two excellent title fights, but nothing to get excited about below them. And while those title fights feature high-level matchups, they won’t draw much interest from the general audience. The main event, a rematch between T.J. Dillashaw and Cody Garbrandt, is the type of fight that should have more steam behind it, but the UFC rushed back to the pairing too quickly after their fight last November. UFC’s final pay-per-view of the summer, which is expected to feature a welterweight title tilt between Tyron Woodley and Darren Till, won’t be the show to end the cold streak.

According to Ariel Helwani, the date UFC is looking forward to is October 6. That is the night in Las Vegas they are targeting for a lightweight title match between Khabib Nurmagomedov and Conor McGregor, which should break every UFC pay-per-view sales record on the books. More than great fights, MMA has been built on big stars in bitter rivalries. There is no bigger star in the history of the sport than McGregor, and their may be no rivalry more bitter than his with Nurmagomedov.

On the other hand, if the UFC can’t pull a McGregor bout together, or if it’s delayed into 2019, then we could be in the midst of the first calendar year since The Ultimate Fighter in which the UFC failed to promote a 400,000 buy pay-per-view. Brock Lesnar is not eligible until January, Georges St-Pierre may or may not return, and Jon Jones’s status is still unknown. Without those fighters, this could be the UFC’s worst year on pay-per-view since 2005.

Dan Plunkett has covered MMA for 411Mania since 2008. You can reach him by email at [email protected] and follow him on Twitter @Dan_Plunkett.