411 Box Office Report: Ant-Man & The Wasp: Quantumania Stays #1, Cocaine Bear Soars

Ant-Man & The Wasp: Quantumania held onto the top spot at the box office, but in a much closer race than expected with Cocaine Bear. The third Ant-Man film suffered a hefty second-weekend drop, falling 70% to $32.2 million. That is the biggest sophomore frame drop for an MCU film, beating out Thor: Love and Thunder and Black Widow’s 68% drops.

That’s obviously not news that Marvel Studios wanted to hear, but it’s hardly a death knell or a sign of grim times for the studio. Despite the hefty drop, Quantumania is still on a hefty road to profit with $167.3 million domestically and $363.6 million worldwide. Even with an expected budget in the $200 million range, this will be a hit for the studio and has done its work in setting up Kang as the MCU’s future. It should close out domestically in the $240 million range or so.

While Quantumania floundered a bit, Cocaine Bear rode high in its debut. The Elizabeth Banks-directed action comedy grossed $23.1 million, blowing way past its mid-teens expectations coming into the weekend. This is great news for Universal Pictures, who bet big on the wild concept and will now reap the benefits. This is the second-highest opening of Banks’ directorial career, behind only Pitch Perfect 2.

Cocaine Bear’s success can be credited to the massive buzz created by Universal’s marketing department, who cut a trailer that immediately captured the internet’s attention. That was important, as the film has a cast that is respected but not exactly household names that can carry a film on their own. The critical praise was decent, with a 71% aggregated score on Rotten Tomatoes, and while audiences were a bit mild on it (a B- CinemaScore and 75$ RT audience rating) it did have good holds through the weekend.

Cocaine Bear is well on its way to success at this point. The film cost $30 million to produce, and with a solid international start it is at $28.4 million worldwide. Expect this one to close out domestically in the $55 million to $60 million range, a nice success for the studio.

Jesus Revolution scored a $15.5 million opening to come in at #3. The faith-based drama from Lionsgate also outperformed its expectations, which was expected to be in the mid-to-high single digits. It is a fantastic start for the film and the best opening for a faith-based entry since I Can Only Imagine got off to a $17.1 million start in March of 2018.

Like most such films, Jesus Revolution built its audience through word of mouth. The critic average on RT is a middling 53%, but the audience score is 99% and the CinemaScore is A+. That’s par for the course among the subgenre. It’s not yet clear if this will be a front-loaded film or not; the genre tends to either drop off quickly or last quite a while. But it seems likely for at least $55 million, perhaps higher if it holds better.

Avatar: The Way Of Water’s fell to #4 in its 11th weekend with $4.7 million, down 28%. The sci-fi action film is now up to $665.4 million domestically and $2.267 billion worldwide, of course a huge hit, and should close out at around $675 million domestically.

Puss In Boots: The Last Wish isn’t done with its nine lives yet, living on with a 23% drop to $4.1 million in its 10th weekend. The animated sequel has now grossed $173.4 million domestically and $442.6 million worldwide, huge against a $90 million budget. It will likely top $185 million by the end of its run.

Magic Mike’s Last Dance fell hard in its third weekend, down 65% to $1.9 million. The third film in the franchise now stands at $22.2 million domestically and $46.9 million worldwide, trying to fight its way to profit against a $40 million budget. It has a long road still ahead of it, with the likely domestic total to end at around $30 million.

Knock At the Cabin was down 53% in its fourth weekend, scoring $1.9 million. The M. Night Shyamalan film’s grosses are at $33.9 million domestically and $52.1 million worldwide, which are okay numbers against a $20 million production budget plus marketing. It should manage to hit a final domestic total around $40 million or so.

80 For Brady was off 51% in its fourth weekend to $1.8 million. The sports comedy has grossed $36.4 million domestically, with $40 million still the end goal. International grosses should a push it to a mild profit against a $28 million budget.

Missing was down 42% in its sixth weekend, grossing $1 million. The ScreenLife thriller has totaled $31.4 million domestically and $36.5 million worldwide, with a $35 million domestic total likely. The budget was $7 million.

A Man Called Otto closed out the top 10 again, scoring $850,000 for the weekend. That’s down 47% in its eighth weekend, with a total now of $62.3 million domestically and $103.5 million worldwide. It should end out at around $65 million domestically and may make a little bit of profit.

Next weekend will see a new #1 as Creed III opens. The boxing drama is looking at around $30 million to start. Also opening are anime film Demon Slayer: To the Swordsmith Village and Guy Ritchie’s Operation Fortune: Ruse De Guerre, which should start in the high single digits and low single digits ranges, respectively.

BOX OFFICE TOP TEN (Three-Day Domestic Numbers)
1. Ant-Man & the Wasp: Quantumania – $32.2 million ($167.3 million total, $363.6 million WW)
2. Cocaine Bear – $23.1 million ($23.1 million total, $28.4 million WW)
3. Jesus Revolution – $15.5 million ($15.5 million total, $15.5 million WW)
4. Avatar: The Way Of Water – $4.7 million ($665.4 million total, $2.267 billion WW)
5. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish – $4.1 million ($173.4 million total, $442.5 million WW)
6. Magic Mike’s Last Dance – $1.9 million ($22.2 million total, $46.9 million WW)
7. Knock At the Cabin – $1.9 million ($33.9 million total, $52.1 million WW)
8. 80 For Brady – $1.8 million ($36.4 million total, $36.4 million WW)
9. Missing – $1 million ($31.4 million total, $36.5 million WW)
10. A Man Called Otto – $850,000 ($62.3 million total, $103.5 million WW)