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411 Box Office Report: The Grinch Scores $66 Million To Open at #1

November 11, 2018 | Posted by Jeremy Thomas
Grinch Poster

The Grinch stole not only Christmas but the box office this weekend, as the new animated take on the holiday classic opened with $66 million. Universal’s animated film nailed down the best opening for a Christmas-themed film of all-time, beating out the $55.1 million start for Universal’s 2000 Jim Carrey-led live-action take on the same property. The opening came in right around where industry analysts predicted it would and gave Universal its third box office win in four weekends, along with Halloween’s two weekends at #1.

The new film was primed for box office success, capitalizing on a relative dearth of family options at theaters outside of second weekend of the largely-ignored The Nutcracker and the Four Realms. That hole combined with a strong marketing campaign to pave the way for big money. The critics neither helped nor hurt this one much, with a 55% average on Rotten Tomatoes keeping things largely in line with where Universal was hoping it would be. Fans were more appreciative than the reviewers, giving the film an A- CinemaScore. That should help it in coming weeks.

At this point, the movie looks primed to do quite well as we move toward the holiday weekend. International venues got their first taste of the film, with twenty-three markets contributing an okay $12.7 million for a $78.7 million worldwide start. This one will likely top $200 million in the US, making it a profitable film on a $75 million budget plus marketing costs.

Bohemian Rhapsody proved that last weekend’s big start wasn’t a fluke, as it held on well in its second frame. The Queen biopic brought in $30.9 million, off 40% from its opening weekend. That’s a heavier second-weekend drop than A Star is Born’s 33%, but that was always expected to happen. Bohemian Rhapsody is now up to $100 million domestically and a fantastic $285.3 million worldwide against its $52 million budget. At this point, the film looks likely to cross $175 million in the US which will make it a good money maker for Fox.

Overlord got off to a $10.1 million start to open at #3. The war/horror mashup slightly overperformed, though the number is still a touch below where Paramount likely wanted it to be. Produced by J.J. Abrams, who was heavily name-dropped in the marketing, the film’s opening was buoyed by strong reviews (81% on RT) but couldn’t bring in as much of the mainstream crowd as was hoped.

The movie was always going to be a somewhat tough sell, to be fair. The World War II and horror aspects made this a genre mashup, which tend to find their audiences more on the ancillary (read: home video) market. The situation was compounded by a crowded marketplace for the film’s fandom-heavy demographic, who have responded well to Bohemian Rhapsody. Add in the fact that Halloween has passed and it was perhaps not the best weekend for Paramount to put this one out. The overseas markets aren’t helping out much either, as it has grossed just $9.2 million in fifty-two markets for a $19.3 million worldwide total. Overlord seems likely to close out with around $28 million to $30 million unless it finds its audience in successive weeks, which the B CinemaScore won’t be a huge help with. That will mean this one’s probably not going to make money until home video. The budget was $38 million.

The Nutcracker and the Four Realms followed up its rough opening with an even rougher second weekend, down 52% to $9.6 million. That’s horrible news for a film that was already pretty certain to lose money. Nutcracker found itself pushed rapidly out of the spotlight by The Grinch and has grossed just $35.3 million domestically. It is doing better overrseas, where it has $61.4 million for a $96.7 million worldwide total. That won’t be enough to make it a profitable film though. Its domestic run should end at around $55 million to $60 million. With a $120 million budget, this is a rare and costly misfire for Disney.

Speaking of misfires, The Girl in the Spider’s Web opened with a whisper at $8 million. That’s well below the low- to mid-teens opening that Sony desperately wanted for this film. It represents director Fede Alvarez’s first financial bomb after the success of Evil Dead ($25.8 million start) and Don’t Breathe ($26.4 million opening).

There are already plenty of “What went wrong?” articles out here, but let’s just break it down quickly. Spider Web was an attempt by Sony to reboot the franchise that started with their remake of The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo. That film starred Daniel Craig and Rooney Mara, with David Fincher behind the camera, and barely broke even in 2011. Seven years is a long time to wait for a second film, and finding an entirely new cast and crew didn’t do any favors. That strategy could work if the film was widely praised, but that’s not happening. While Claire Foy is getting good marks for her work as Lisbeth Salander, the film has a tepid 43% on RT. Audiences just weren’t interested here for a variety of reasons. The franchise is too edgy for mainstream crowds, and hardcore fans almost definitively prefer the original Swedish films starring Noomi Rapace. This one was pretty much dead in the water before it even opened.

All in all, this is very bad news. The domestic total was matched by an anemic $8.3 million in forty-nine markets for a $16.3 million start. Spider’s Web was cheaper than Dragon Tattoo, but $43 million is still too much for this film to overcome when you consider marketing costs. It should finish off with around $25 million domestically.

A Star Is Born continues its run at the box office, down just 27% in its sixth weekend with $8 million. The Bradley Cooper/Lady Gaga drama is rolling through its lengthy run with very few problems. It has $178 million domestically and $322.8 million worldwide at this point, with the upcoming awards season likely to push it ever higher. A $210 million domestic total is entirely possible, huge on a $36 million budget.

Nobody’s Fool followed the traditional Tyler Perry trajectory, even with its low start last weekend. The comedy brought in $6.5 million, a 52% drop which is about on par with Perry’s non-Madea films. The Tiffany Haddish-led film sits at $24.3 million domestically and $24.5 million worldwide this far, and should finish off at around $35 million domestically. It may struggle to make back its $19 million budget.

Venom brought in $4.9 million in its sixth weekend, down 38%. The Marvel Comics adaptation is up to $206.2 million domestically and has pushed its worldwide total to $673.5 million thanks to a big $111 million opening in China. It should end its US run at around $225 million and is a major success for Sony.

Halloween wad down 65% in its fourth weekend to $3.8 million. The horror revival pushed its totals to $156.8 million domestically and $254.5 million worldwide from a budget of just $10 million. looks like to end its run around $170 million to $175 million in the US.

The Hate You Give held onto the #10 spot, down 38% in its fourth weekend of wide release with $2.1 million. The drama brought its totals to $26.7 million domestically and $28.8 million worldwide on a $23 million budget. It should be able to make it to around $35 million in the US.

The Harry Potter franchise is back to dominate next weekend, as Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald will own #1 with an expected opening around $70 million. Also opening next weekend is domestic comedy Instant Family and Steve McQueen’s heist film Widows, both targeting mid- to high-teens starts.

BOX OFFICE TOP TEN (Three-Day Domestic Numbers)
1. Dr. Seuss’ The Grinch – $66 million ($66 million total)
2. Bohemian Rhapsody – $30.9 million ($100 million total)
3. Overlord – $10.1 million ($10.1 million total)
4. The Nutcracker and the Four Realms – $9.6 million ($35.3 million total)
5. The Girl in the Spider’s Web – $8 million ($8 million total)
6. A Star Is Born – $8 million ($178 million total)
7. Nobody’s Fool – $6.5 million ($24.3 million total)
8. Venom – $4.9 million ($206.2 million total)
9. Halloween – $3.8 million ($156.8 million total)
10. The Hate U Give – $2.1 million ($26.7 million total)