411’s TV Renewal Predictions: Roseanne Renewal, Midseason Premieres Shake Things Up

Welcome to 411’s official renewal predictions for the 2017 – 2018 television season! I’m Jeremy Thomas and after last season’s late-era run, we’re back to keep predictions going from fall going forward. The fall season is now in full launch this past week and we’re going to take a weekly look at what’s likely to get renewed as well as what you’re not very likely to see come back next year.

This is going to be a pretty short and sweet column each week. I’ll be updating my predictions every Sunday if there’s anything that warrants a move.

How It Works

The categories are pretty self-explanatory: Renewed, Likely Renewal, Bubble (could go either way), Likely Cancellation and Cancelled. It is worth mentioning that some shows will be moved into “Cancelled” status before an official announcement; networks are generally loathe to announce cancellations but there are clear signs when a show has been cancelled. These include a lack of additional episodes ordered for a first season, main cast members joining other shows or pilots and statements made by members of the cast or crew.

A show’s rating in the 18 – 49 demographic generally determines renewal, as that is the demographic that advertisers pay for (and thus determines the show’s profit margin). The 18 – 49 demo rating will be included after the show in the list. However, it’s not as simple as “X show has a higher rating than Y show, so it will be renewed.” There are certain expectations regarding a show’s timeslot; a 10 PM show can easily survive with a lower rating than a 9 PM show. Fridays tend to have lower ratings expectations and a show that is produced by the network’s production company is more likely to be renewed than one that the network has no stake in. International and streaming distributions can influence some shows to survive, but that is by no means a saving grace.

This Week’s Highlights

As more midseason shows make their premieres, some seismic changes have been made to the prediction charts this week. We’re getting more and more down to the wire, with just over a month before the network upfront presentations, so expect several announced renewals and unannounced (but reported) cancellations to arrive over the next few weeks. This week, we have a lot to cover so we’re going to break it down by network.

ABC

Without a doubt, the biggest news to come in the past week was the arrival of Roseanne. The headline-grabbing ABC revival was renewed almost immediately after its premiere night last Tuesday, and no one should be surprised considering its enormous 5.2 demo rating. That’s a renewal in the bag, but it’s also important to look at what this means for the rest of the network’s sitcoms. A returning sitcom means that there’s one less slot for next year…or in this case, probably two. We can chalk it up to having Roseanne as a lead-in, but Splitting Up Together came in with an also-strong 2.1 premiere. That number may well fall quite a bit in the next few weeks, but barring a major freefall it’s pretty safe to guess that the series will live to see a second season.

ABC’s gain in this case is Kevin (Probably) Saves the World’s loss, and perhaps even one more series as well. Kevin was already on the bubble as a low-rated freshman series, but it had peformed not-atrociously in a 10 PM timeslot. That would have been good enough before, but with the two new half-hour series delivering to see this one sticking around. The benefit to cancelling Kevin timeslot-wise is that it is an hour-long show, so killing it frees up two half-hour timeslots. That’s no guarantee, because it’s still double the investment. But right now, it seems like ABC might have a two-for-one.

There were a couple of other changes in ABC’s predictions. First off is How to Get Away with Murder, which moves up to Likely Renewed. Shonda Rhimes’ programming for the network isn’t the behemoth it once was, especially with Scandal ending. And Rhimes’ For the People is going to be a one-and-done with the ratings it holds. But Murder is a solid performer and ratings have stabilized nicely, so it should come back. Meanwhile, Deception hits the Bubble in its second week. The show isn’t a flop in the ratings, but it isn’t great either and there’s nothing yet suggesting which way it will go. As for the regular Agents of SHIELD update, there are reports that the show’s strong international licensing and marketing deals, along with good DVR numbers, are keeping it in the conversation for a sixth season.

FOX

Over on FOX, the final episode of X-Files has clarified some situations. The iconic series closed out up for its finale, but not so far that it’s likely to return. Remember, it took FOX two years to breing the show back for scheduling reasons when it was a huge hit in its season ten return. Now that the show is performing in the bottom half of the network’s rankings and Gillian Anderson is not returning, there’s no reason to believe it will return.

This means good news for two of FOX’s drama. The first is Gotham which jumps from the Bubble to Likely Renewed. The Batman prequel series is no longer a ratings hit, but it has a loyal following and it’s easier to let it continue than take a risk on a new show. In addition, The Resident moves from Likely Cancelled to the Bubble. The medical drama is a mild performer but has been very stable in its regular timeslot. The series isn’t a sure thing to return, but it’s now looking like a possibility.

Finally, there’s some good news for a couple of FOX’s sitcoms, though fans should be measured in their hopes. Both L.A. to Vegas and Brooklyn Nine-Nine were in the Likely Cancelled range last week, and the former of those shows still doesn’t have great odds. But LA to Vegas comes from 20th Century FOX TV, which is still technically a sister company to FOX. That gives it an edge that other middling performers don’t have.

Meanwhile, Brooklyn Nine-Nine has come back very strong in a Sunday timeslot for the past few weeks, posting series highs by far. That’s an encouraging sign and the network may well decide that the show should get at least one more run, especially considering its awards potential. But those (potential) renewals would have to come at the expense of others. In this case, that’s probably Last Man on Earth and/or Ghosted. All four shows have had their only or best showings on Sundays and there’s only so much room in that lineup. Two of the four series will survive at best; it’s just hard to tell which ones at this point

NBC/CBS

With these two networks, there isn’t quite enough to justify their own sections. So we’ll keep them together. CBS’ big development is that their freshman Bubble action-procedurals, SEAL Team and SWAT, were renewed this week. That’s a mild surprise, but is less a statement about their strenght and more about their midseason drama’s failures. Instinct got a minor boost last week, but only because of the Stormy Daniels 60 Minute interview. There’s no reason to expect that will hold this week. The renewal of the fall shows is not encouraging for Instinct’s chances, but it’s still early to move it off the Bubble. If it does hold up nicely, CBS may take a chance on it instead of going with a pilot they’re “meh” on.

Over on NBC, the only movement we have is Rise moving out of Too Early to Call and AP Bio out of Likely Cancelled. Rise is a well-liked show at the network, but that has to be counterbalanced by the show’s average-at-best ratings. As for AP Bio, it’s the best performer out of NBC’s worst sitcoms. That’s faint praise, but comedy is a genre that NBC doesn’t have many of and it’s a broadcast stable. Great News and Champions are as good as dead, but if the Peacock’s pilots don’t satisfy well enough than Bio may yet live on.

The CW

The smallest of the networks finds itself in an interesting place due to its expansion to six nights next season, giving it room to bring back more shows. This is why Jane the Virgin is a comfortable Likely Renewal. But the fate of iZombie and Dynasty aren’t so clear. Those shows were in Likely Renewed and Likely Cancelled last week. However, iZombie has been performing on the low end of what’s acceptable for it. That’s enough to make me uncertain as to which way the network will go.

Meanwhile, Dynasty isn’t a series that would get renewed in any other situation. But it actually leapt ahead of Life Sentence overall this week by moving to a 0.3 on Friday. It’s still not in good shape, but the show also has an advantage in that it has a good Netflix distribution deal overseas. That could easily make the difference, and if it holds onto its 0.3 next week it may move up to Likely Renewed.

ABC

Renewed:
* Roseanne (5.2)
* The Good Doctor (1.79)
* Modern Family (1.66)
* The Goldbergs (1.51)

Likely Renewal:
* Splitting Up Together (2.1)
* Grey’s Anatomy (2.03)
* American Housewife (1.25)
* Black-ish (1.17)
* Speechless (1.13)
* Fresh Off the Boat (1.02)
* How to Get Away with Murder (0.94)

Bubble:
* Deception (0.9)
* Designated Survivor (0.76)
* Marvel’s Agents of SHIELD (0.56)

Likely Cancellation:
* For the People (0.76)
* Kevin (Probably) Saves the World (0.67)
* Marvel’s Inhumans (0.61)

Cancelled:
* The Middle (1.33) – Final season previously announced
* Scandal (1.19) – Final season previously announced
* The Mayor (0.82)
* Once Upon a Time (0.52)
* Ten Days in the Valley (0.35)

Too Early to Call:
* Station 19 (1.13)
* Alex, Inc. (1.1)
* The Crossing (Premieres April 2nd)
* Quantico (Premieres April 26th)

CBS

Renewed:
* Big Bang Theory (2.85)
* Young Sheldon (2.32)
* Seal Team (1.04)
* SWAT (0.99)

Likely Renewal:
* Mom (1.49)
* NCIS (1.43)
* Kevin Can Wait (1.24)
* Bull (1.19)
* Life in Pieces (1.16)
* Man With a Plan (1.03)
* Hawaii Five-0 (1.00)
* Criminal Minds (1.00)
* NCIS: New Orleans (0.98)
* NCIS: Los Angeles (0.96)
* Blue Bloods (0.94)
* Code Black (Premieres April 25th)

Bubble:
* Instinct (1.15)
* Superior Donuts (0.92)
* MacGyver (0.86)
* Scorpion (0.83)

Likely Cancellation:
* 9JKL (0.96)
* Living Biblically (0.72)
* Madam Secretary (0.66)

Cancelled:
* Me, Myself & I (1.00)
* Wisdom of the Crowd (0.91)

Too Early to Call:
* Elementary (Premieres April 23rd)

NBC

Renewed:
* This Is Us (3.07)
* Will & Grace (1.52)
* The Good Place (1.14)
* Superstore (1.07)

Likely Renewal:
* Chicago Med (1.30)
* Law & Order: SVU (1.29)
* Chicago PD (1.21)
* Chicago Fire (1.12)
* The Blacklist (0.97)
* Blindspot (0.64)
* Shades of Blue (Premieres Midseason)

Bubble:
* Good Girls (1.14)
* Rise (1.04)
* AP Bio (0.82)

Likely Cancellation:
* Law & Order True Crime (1.05)
* The Brave (0.92)
* Great News (0.73)
* Timeless (0.71)
* Champions (0.63)
* Taken (0.45)

Cancelled:
None

Too Early to Call:

FOX

Renewed:
* The Simpsons (1.73)
* 9-1-1 (1.65)
* The Orville (1.25)
* The Gifted (1.01)

Likely Renewal:
* Empire (1.93)
* Star (1.36)
* Bob’s Burgers (1.24)
* Family Guy (1.24)
* Lucifer (0.86)
* Gotham (0.81)

Bubble:
* Ghosted (1.17)
* The Resident (1.11)
* Lethal Weapon (1.04)
* The Last Man on Earth (0.88)
* L.A. to Vegas (0.79)
* The Mick (0.73)
* Brooklyn Nine-Nine (0.70)

Likely Cancellation:
* The X-Files (0.96)
* The Exorcist (0.41)

Cancelled:
* New Girl (Final season previously announced, premieres April 10th)

Too Early to Call:

The CW

Renewed:

Likely Renewal:
* The Flash (0.85)
* Black Lightning (0.59)
* Supernatural (0.59)
* Supergirl (0.55)
* Riverdale (0.51)
* Legends of Tomorrow (0.49)
* Arrow (0.47)
* Jane the Virgin (0.25)
* Crazy Ex-Girlfriend (0.22)

Bubble:
* iZombie (0.24)
* Dynasty (0.20)

Likely Cancellation:
* Life Sentence (0.17)

Cancelled:
* Valor (0.21)
* The Originals (Final season previously announced, premieres April 20th)

Too Early to Call:
* The 100 (Premieres April 24th)