411’s TV Renewal Predictions: iZombie Should Survive as The CW Expands

Welcome to 411’s official renewal predictions for the 2017 – 2018 television season! I’m Jeremy Thomas and after last season’s late-era run, we’re back to keep predictions going from fall going forward. The fall season is now in full launch this past week and we’re going to take a weekly look at what’s likely to get renewed as well as what you’re not very likely to see come back next year.

This is going to be a pretty short and sweet column each week. I’ll be updating my predictions every Sunday if there’s anything that warrants a move.

How It Works

The categories are pretty self-explanatory: Renewed, Likely Renewal, Bubble (could go either way), Likely Cancellation and Cancelled. It is worth mentioning that some shows will be moved into “Cancelled” status before an official announcement; networks are generally loathe to announce cancellations but there are clear signs when a show has been cancelled. These include a lack of additional episodes ordered for a first season, main cast members joining other shows or pilots and statements made by members of the cast or crew.

A show’s rating in the 18 – 49 demographic generally determines renewal, as that is the demographic that advertisers pay for (and thus determines the show’s profit margin). The 18 – 49 demo rating will be included after the show in the list. However, it’s not as simple as “X show has a higher rating than Y show, so it will be renewed.” There are certain expectations regarding a show’s timeslot; a 10 PM show can easily survive with a lower rating than a 9 PM show. Fridays tend to have lower ratings expectations and a show that is produced by the network’s production company is more likely to be renewed than one that the network has no stake in. International and streaming distributions can influence some shows to survive, but that is by no means a saving grace.

This Week’s Highlights

We’ve been away for a few weeks for a variety of reasons, and in that time we’ve seen a host of midseason premieres. Some of the new shows started off in pretty decent shape, but others appear to be doomed right out of the gate. One of the better pieces of news for fans is iZombie. The CW series bowed its fourth season with a 0.26 rating in the 18 – 49 demographic. To be clear, that’s not a very good start out of context. Dynasty and Valor both started off better than that, and one is cancelled while the other probably will be.

So what’s the difference? That’s simple. iZombie is in its fourth season, when shows can start off lower out of the gate. Freshman series almost always see significant drops from their first episodes as curious watchers tune in, then realize it isn’t for them and tune back out. In its fourth season, iZombie isn’t getting many curious types who don’t know what the show is about. The show was a steady, consistent (if low-rated) performer throughout season three and there’s every expectation that it will continue to do so. With the network expanding their programming to six days next season, there’s room for iZombie to live on.

On the other hand, The CW’s other premiere is not going to live on. Life Sentence got off to a 0.2 start this past week, and that’s cancellation territory for any series on any broadcast network. The series has received little buzz and there’s no reason to expect that ratings will rise. As it stands, it will probably get its full thirteen episodes unless things get truly dire. But don’t expect to see it on the schedule next year.

NBC had both good news and bad news in its new premieres. Good Girls got off to a solid start with a 1.5 rating at the beginning of the month, then held on decently in week two. With the buzz the series has received, it seems likely to come back. AP Bio and Champions, on the other hand, are going to be one and dones. Both shows are tanking in the ratings right off the bat and will probably only get worse from here. Still, having one solid (if unspectacular) performer out of midseason isn’t the worst situation in the world. CBS just one midseason premiere so far in Living Biblically, which is likely dead already due to a very quiet start. And ABC’s midseason doesn’t kick off for real until this week, which is when we’ll see whether the Bubble shows like Agents of SHIELD and Designated Survivor have a real fighting chance.

In addition to these new series, there were a couple of relevant newsbits. ABC gave The Good Doctor one of the least-surprising renewals of the season. The network has struggled in a lot of timeslots, but Good Doctor is their freshman success so far. NBC also handed out a renewal, to Superstore. Again, this was expected news as the show is one of the net’s only successful sitcoms right now. And over on FOX, there were no renewals but The Resident has thankfully stabilized. The problem for FOX is that it hasn’t stabilized at a good level, hanging at a 0.8 and 0.9 for the last two airings. It’s still on the Bubble, albeit on the low end of it.

ABC

Renewed:
* The Good Doctor (1.81)
* Modern Family (1.68)
* The Goldbergs (1.52)

Likely Renewal:
* Grey’s Anatomy (2.07)
* American Housewife (1.27)
* Speechless (1.15)
* Black-ish (1.11)
* Fresh Off the Boat (1.03)

Bubble:
* How to Get Away with Murder (0.94)
* Designated Survivor (0.78)
* Kevin (Probably) Saves the World (0.67)
* Marvel’s Agents of SHIELD (0.59)

Likely Cancellation:
* Marvel’s Inhumans (0.61)

Cancelled:
* The Middle (1.35) – Final season previously announced
* Scandal (1.20) – Final season previously announced
* The Mayor (0.82)
* Once Upon a Time (0.53)
* Ten Days in the Valley (0.35)

Too Early to Call:
* Alex, Inc. (Premieres March 28th)
* The Crossing (Premieres April 2nd)
* Deception (Premieres March 11th)
* For The People (Premieres March 13th)
* Grey’s Anatomy Spinoff (Premieres March 29th)
* Quantico (Premieres April 26th)
* Roseanne (Premieres March 27th)
* Splitting Up Together (Premieres March 27th)

CBS

Renewed:
* Big Bang Theory (2.87)
* Young Sheldon (2.33)

Likely Renewal:
* Mom (1.50)
* NCIS (1.44)
* Kevin Can Wait (1.27)
* Bull (1.19)
* Life in Pieces (1.17)
* Man With a Plan (1.05)
* Hawaii Five-0 (1.00)
* Criminal Minds (1.00)
* NCIS: New Orleans (0.99)
* NCIS: Los Angeles (0.96)
* Blue Bloods (0.95)
* Code Black (Premieres April 25th)

Bubble:
* Seal Team (1.06)
* SWAT (1.00)
* Superior Donuts (0.94)
* MacGyver (0.86)
* Scorpion (0.83)

Likely Cancellation:
* 9JKL (0.96)
* Living Biblically (0.75)
* Madam Secretary (0.67)

Cancelled:
* Me, Myself & I (1.00)
* Wisdom of the Crowd (0.91)

Too Early to Call:
* Elementary (Premieres April 23rd)

NBC

Renewed:
* This Is Us (3.09)
* Will & Grace (1.60)
* The Good Place (1.14)
* Superstore (1.09)

Likely Renewal:
* Good Girls (1.40)
* Chicago Med (1.34)
* Law & Order: SVU (1.28)
* Chicago PD (1.20)
* Chicago Fire (1.12)
* The Blacklist (0.98)
* Blindspot (0.66)
* Shades of Blue (Premieres Midseason)

Bubble:
None

Likely Cancellation:
* Law & Order True Crime (1.05)
* The Brave (0.92)
* AP Bio (0.87)
* Great News (0.73)
* Champions (0.70)
* Taken (0.49)

Cancelled:
None

Too Early to Call:
None

FOX

Renewed:
* The Simpsons (1.89)
* 9-1-1 (1.64)
* The Orville (1.25)
* The Gifted (1.01)

Likely Renewal:
* Empire (1.92)
* Bob’s Burgers (1.38)
* Star (1.35)
* Family Guy (1.29)
* Lucifer (0.88)

Bubble:
* The Resident (1.23)
* Ghosted (1.17)
* Lethal Weapon (1.03)
* The X-Files (1.00)
* The Last Man on Earth (0.90)
* Gotham (0.85)
* The Mick (0.75)

Likely Cancellation:
* L.A. to Vegas (0.84)
* Brooklyn Nine-Nine (0.66)
* The Exorcist (0.41)

Cancelled:
* New Girl (Final season previously announced, premieres April 10th)

Too Early to Call:

The CW

Renewed:

Likely Renewal:
* The Flash (0.85)
* Black Lightning (0.63)
* Supernatural (0.58)
* Supergirl (0.55)
* Riverdale (0.54)
* Legends of Tomorrow (0.51)
* Arrow (0.48)
* iZombie (0.26)
* Jane the Virgin (0.25)
* Crazy Ex-Girlfriend (0.22)

Bubble:

Likely Cancellation:
* Dynasty (0.21)
* Life Sentence (0.20)

Cancelled:
* Valor (0.21)
* The Originals (Final season previously announced, premieres April 20th)

Too Early to Call:
* The 100 (Premieres April 24th)
* Life Sentence (Premieres March 7th)