411 Box Office Report: Now You See Me: Now You Don’t Tops The Weekend As Running Man Falls Short

A surprise contender rose to the top of the box office this weekend as Now You See Me: Now You Don’t claimed #1. The heist threequel topped the charts with $21.4 million. That easily beats the mid-teens expectation for it coming into the weekend. The number is roughly on par with the $22.4 million opening of Now You See Me 2 in June of 2016.

The start reps a much-needed win for Lionsgate, who have had a rough year-plus. While Now You See Me 3 started slightly below the $24.5 million start of the studio’s Ballerina, there are encouraging signs here that the John Wick spinoff lacked. Notably, we’re talking about the international box office. Now You See Me 3 launched to $54.2 million overseas. That’s more than double what Ballerina began with. The heist franchise has always made the lion’s share of its money overseas and appears likely to here as well.

The grosses for the film got a boost by positive sentiment toward the previous films. Both have performed well streaming in Netflix in recent months. While critic sentiment is not high at a 59% Rotten Tomatoes critic aggregate, that’s on par with the first film. It’s much better than Now You See Me 2’s 34%. Fans also like the film with a B+ CinemaScore and 81% RT audience rating.

While these films aren’t cheap, Now You Don’t is in par with the second film at a $90 million budget. Assuming it doesn’t bottom out quickly, it’s positioned to be a success and should close out at around $60 million domestically.

Meanwhile, The Running Man stumbled out of the gate. The Edgar Wright-directed re-adaptation of the Stephen King novella opened to just $17 million. That’s below the $20 million range that Paramount was hoping for. The number reps the second-highest start of Wright’s directorial career behind Baby Driver’s $20.6 million. However, it also cost $110 million as opposed to Driver’s $34 million.

Redoing The Running Man was always going to be a risky move. The original film is a cult classic, but people forget that it wasn’t a hit either. The Arnold Schwarzenegger film brought in just $38 million total against a $27 million budget and earned mixed reviews. It wasn’t until later that it was reassessed and became beloved.

The same may happen to this iteration, but right now it’s not looking great. Critics only mildly liked it with a 64% RT score, and fans are the same at a 79% RT audience rating. (The CinemaScore is a better B+.) Some of the problem is being directed at Paramount, who switched gears on marketing and post-production when Skydance finished its merger with the company. Still, it’s not clear that it would have done better beforehand. Giving a new take on a nostalgic movie is always going to be risky. And 1980s nostalgia right now isn’t too high (hello, Tron: Ares).

The Running Man has another problem in that it’s not scoring overseas, either. It chalked up just $11.2 million internationally for a $28.2 million worldwide total. Even if it has legs, this isn’t going to be a hit and the domestic total is unlikely to get above $50 million.

The two big new releases took some air out of Predator: Badlands’ sails. The sci-fi action film fell 66% to $13 million in its second frame. This was largely expected, to be clear. Last weekend’s overperformance suggested a heavier fall this weekend, and the competition didn’t help.

Disney isn’t stressing it too much though. The film has $66.3 million domestically and $136.3 million worldwide thus far. Even with a $105 million budget, it is looking like it will be a success as long as international grosses continue to come in. The final domestic gross should be around $90 million.

Regretting You continued to show legs in its fourth weekend. The romantic drama was down 40% to $4 million. That brings the movie to $45 million domestically and $82.5 million worldwide. That’s a hit $30 million budget. It’s still looking likely to get to $55 million and perhaps higher, a sleeper hit for Paramount.

Black Phone 2 was down 49% in its fifth weekend with $2.7 million. The movie is pacing slightly behind the original film but is a hit for Universal. It has $74.7 million in the US and $127.7 million worldwide, a hit against a $30 million budget. $80 million stateside is still the expected finish.

Sony Pictures’ Nuremberg had a solid hold as it was off just 33% in its second weekend. The period drama took in $2.6 million to bring its total to $8.7 million. Still no overseas numbers for this film, nor any budget numbers. It’s still making a play for $12 million or so as a domestic total.

Osgood Perkins quietly returned to theaters this weekend with Keeper. The psychological folk horror movie took in just $2.7 million, well below the high single-digits start that was hoped for. The film is the lowest wide release start for Perkins yet. It’s a very far cry from the starts of Longlegs ($22.4 million) and February’s The Monkey ($14 million).

But really, that isn’t a surprising development. The Monkey was a more mainstream horror film and even Longlegs’ weird swings made for good marketing. NEON kept the Keeper marketing low-key because they knew this wouldn’t score the same with audiences. And it didn’t; audiences gave it a D+ CinemaScore and a 40% RT audience rating. Critics didn’t love it either with a 49% aggregate.

None of that will bother Perkins, who didn’t exactly make the film to be a blockbuster. And NEON will likely be fine. The film cost just $6 million to make and will do well on home viewing. Theatrically though, don’t expect it to get much past $8 million in the US. International numbers have yet to come in, but it will expand out in the coming weeks over there.

Sarah’s Oil, dipped 45% in its second frame to gross $2.3 million. The Amazon-MGM period drama is now at $8.7 million, much like . Also like that film, we have no budget or overseas numbers. It should end with a similar box office at $12 million or so.

Bugonia was off 53% in its third weekend. The Yorgos Lanthimos dark comedy brought in another $1.6 million. It now sits at $15.7 million domestically and $30.4 million worldwide. As we’ve discussed before, this is an expected result and it won’t be a hit in theaters. However, the studio has hopes for award attention and strong home viewing figures as a result. Its domestic run is going to be just short of $20 million.

Chainsaw Man — The Movie: Reze Arc was also down 53% in its fourth weekend. The anime film brought in $1.6 million. The Sony/Crunchyroll release is at $41.2 million domestically and $168.3 million worldwide. A $43 million stateside total remains likely.

All competitors will be left in the dust of Wicked: For Good next weekend. The second part of the blockbuster musical is targeting $160 million-plus. Meanwhile, Sisu: Road To Revenge and Rental Family are targeting very different audiences and are looking at the same low single-digit start.

Box Office Top Ten (Three-Day Domestic Numbers)

1. Now You See Me: Now You Don’t – $21.4 million ($21.4 million total, $75.5 million WW)
2. The Running Man – $17 million ($17 million total, $28.2 million WW)
3. Predator: Badlands – $13 million ($66.3 million total, $136.3 million WW)
4. Regretting You – $4 million ($45 million total, $82.5 million WW)
5. Black Phone 2 – $2.7 million ($74.7 million total, $127.7 million WW)
6. Nuremberg – $2.4 million ($8.5 million total, $8.7 million WW)
7. Keeper – $2.5 million ($2.5 million total, $2.5 million WW)
8. Sarah’s Oil – $2.3 million ($8.7 million total, $8.7 million WW)
9. Bugonia – $1.6 million ($15.7 million total, $30.4 million WW)
10. Chainsaw Man — The Movie: Reze Arc – $1.6 million ($41.2 million total, $168.3 million WW)