Can Holly Holm Get Back on Track?

You don’t have to go back more than two years to find the single most famous fight result in the history of mixed martial arts. Far from MMA hotspots the United States and Brazil, and years removed from the sport’s mainstream years in Japan, two unbeaten American 135-pound women squared off in front of 56,214 Australians at Etihad Stadium in Melbourne and millions throughout world via the magic of television and its capitalistic offspring pay-per-view. Untold millions more would come to see the bout’s crushing finale on the internet, hear about it on mainstream sports news broadcasts, or read about it on any number of mediums.

No person with the right frame of reference would have called it the biggest fight in mixed martial arts history beforehand, and few – if any – do today, but by some metrics, it was.

A scant thirteen months later, Ronda Rousey, the big star of the big fight, likely competed for the final time, once again losing in devastating fashion. Nineteen months on, Holly Holm, the dominant victor of the bout that reshaped the world’s view of one of its most famous athletes, is still searching for her first win post-Rousey, the opponent that changed her life. Perhaps pseudo historians of the future will see results of their subsequent bouts and conclude that the November 2015 meeting was something less than it was purported to be, but Holm and Rousey met at a place and a time, and times move quickly in young divisions that only recently saw their first real riches.

While Rousey may be finished leaving bits of herself in a cage, Holm is still kicking toward the sky. Her championship reign was unexpectedly short-lived, choked out within four months of its spectacular commencement. She fights again on Saturday in a main event bout in Singapore for perhaps 12,000 live fans – far from Melbourne – on UFC’s online Fight Pass streaming service – far from the riches of pay-per-view. A loss would mark her fourth in a row, a streak that might cost a fighter without such a famous victory her job. Despite her run of misfortune after hitting the pugilistic lottery, Holm is still a player in two (if not three) divisions.

Holm saw the other side of an upset in her first loss. She was thoughtful and controlling for four rounds against Miesha Tate before being dragged to the ground and submitted in the final round. The UFC may have misplayed its hand by deciding against an immediate rematch. Tate and Holm represented Rousey’s two most lucrative bantamweight opponents, and Holm would have been favored to beat Tate in a second bout. It could have been a very different year for Holly Holm, but instead UFC pitted Holm against Valentina Shevchenko, and Amanda Nunes received the first crack at Tate.

Despite being the smaller fighter, Shevchenko proved herself as the more effective counter fighter against Holm on the way to winning a unanimous 49-46 decision. To a degree, the fight was a sign of a decline in Holm, but it mostly represented the breakout of a younger, more talented striker.

The pair of losses did not dissuade UFC from calling on Holm when they were in desperate need of a main event for UFC 208 in February 2017. The UFC created a new division and championship out of thin air – women’s featherweight – and tabbed Holm and Germaine de Randamie, two bantamweight, to fight for the belt. Holm kept it close, but de Randamie edged past for for the championship.

Saturday marks Holm’s first bout since de Randamie, and a chance to rebuild toward a title match. Her opponent, Bethe Correia, is exactly the type of fighter she should be fighting at this point. Correia, who has gone 1-1-1 in three close bouts since losing to Ronda Rousey in the bantamweight title fight immediately preceding Rousey vs. Holm, has no significant areas of advantage over Holm, and no clear path to victory. A Holm loss would indicate a significant decline that was not evident in her past three fights, but the most likely outcome is a comfortable victory. One step forward on the track.

With only a couple of wins, Holm is once again a title contender at bantamweight and featherweight (since UFC has only one real female featherweight, every top bantamweight contender is automatically a top candidate at featherweight), and perhaps even the soon-to-be introduced women’s flyweight division.

Such a quick potential reversal of fortune is indicative of how Holm’s star grew following the Rousey bout and the state of the UFC. The UFC has shown that in most cases, they are going to put together the biggest fights they can. Following the retirement of Miesha Tate and the presumed retirement of Rousey, Holm is one of the three biggest female stars they have. That fact has already notched her one title shot, and even if Saturday goes something less than smoothly, it will continue to benefit her.