411 Box Office Report: Avatar: The Way Of Water Crosses $500 Million, M3GAN Opens Big

It was a fourth weekend atop the box office for Avatar: The Way Of Water, which passed the $500 million domestic mark while newcomer M3GAN opened well. The Way Of Water topped the box office for a fourth straight weekend with $45 million, a slip of just 33% from the three-day for last weekend. That’s the third-best fourth weekend ever, behind only American Sniper ($89.2 million) and the original Avatar ($50.3 million).

Way of Water is now pretty much a certified hit. The film has grossed the $500 million domestically and $1.71 billion worldwide, putting it in a profit margin point and likely guaranteeing that the franchise will be in our lives at least through the third and fourth entries (and probably the fifth). What’s more, the profit is going to keep rolling in. The lack of strong competition through the rest of the month makes this film likely to gross over $570 million domestically and almost certainly over $2 billion worldwide. The domestic total has a very legitimate shot at crossing $600 million domestically. Disney is very happy with this film, to say the least.

Meanwhile, M3GAN blew past expectations for a great start. The sci-fi horror flick came in at #2 with $30.2 million, well above the $17 million to $20 million expected coming into the weekend. That’s the best start for a PG-13 horror film since A Quiet Place: Part II grossed $47.5 million in May of 2021, and over double the combined opening weekends of every wide release PG-13 horror film of 2022 in The Invitation ($6.8 million), Prey For the Devil ($7.2 million), and Umma ($915,300). Obviously, this is huge for the Universal Pictures film, which capitalized on that PG-13 rating as well as heavy buzz coming into the weekend.

M3GAN was buzzy throughout its marketing run, thanks to a trailer that sold it as a film that was as self-aware as its maniacal antagonist. Those hopes were bolstered when reviews came in very strong; the aggregated score at Rotten Tomatoes is 93%, which is fantastic for horror. Add in a strong B CinemaScore and a solid 79% audience rating on RT, and you have the recipe for a winner. M3GAN stayed strong throughout the weekend, defying the frontloaded nature of horror; Saturday saw essentially no drop, while Sunday’s projections solid.

All this means that Universal has a hit – and the studio’s reported sequel hopes are likely to materialize. M3GAN cost just $12 million to produce, and its overseas start gave it a $45 million worldwide total so it’s likely already profitable. Considering the strong word of mouth and a lack of competition coming up, a $75 million domestic final seems very likely, and it could go higher than that.

Speaking of things Universal is happy with, Puss In Boots: The Last Wish has shown strong legs since it opened a bit soft last month. The animated sequel continued the trend this weekend as it slipped just 22% to $13.2 million. Again, always trust in the holidays to boost a family film’s numbers. The film is looking likely to turn a profit at this point, as it has $87.7 million domestically (a 5.22 multiple from its opening weekend) and $197.4 million worldwide. The budget was $90 million plus marketing so it’s not quite there yet, but a $110 million domestic total seems to be a good target for it and that plus continued overseas grosses will push it into profit territory.

Tom Hanks came in at #4 with A Man Called Otto. The dramedy opened expanded to 637 theaters this week and brought in a pretty decent $4.2 million. The film, a remake of the 2015 Swedish film A Man Called Ove, got a tiny release last weekend to qualify it for Oscar consideration and will continue to build next weekend as it goes wider.

A Man Called Otto isn’t exactly a major hit with critics; it’s doing okay at a 68% Rotten Tomatoes score, but that’s also the lowest score for a theatrically released film starring Hanks since Cloud Atlas averaged a 66% all the way back in 2012. Fortunately for the film, its audience rating is through the roof at 96% on RT. That should help it when it goes wider next weekend. The film will have to stretch a ways to make back its $50 million budget, but with a solid $8.4 million in 10 overseas markets for a $12.7 million worldwide total, it’s not in bad shape. We’ll have to see how it does next weekend to have a realistic stab at its domestic final.

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever was down 34% in its ninth weekend with $3.4 million. The MCU film now has $445.4 million domestically and $827.2 million worldwide as its theatrical run winds down and Marvel gears up for Ant-Man & The Wasp: Quantumania next month. It is still likely to close out its domestic run at about $455 million, good enough to be seventh-highest domestic gross of any MCU film. The budget was $250 million.

Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody was down 39% in its third weekend to 2.4 million. The musical biopic is now at $19.7 million domestically and $41.5 million worldwide – not disastrous, but not where it needs to be to make money against its $45 million budget. At this point the film seems likely to finish out domestically around $27 million.

Darren Aronofsky’s The Whale bumped up 9% in its fifth weekend as it added some new theaters, bringing in $1.5 million. The Brendan Fraser-led drama is benefitting from the buzz over Fraser’s work and its gradual platforming, with $8.6 million domestically. That doesn’t sound huge, but with a budget of just $3 million that’s pretty solid. It should be able to make it to at least $15 million domestically (it has yet to open overseas) and could get higher if the awards buzz pays off.

Babylon got more bad news, as it slipped 45% over to bring in $1.4 million. The outlandish Hollywood-set period drama now has $13.5 million domestically and still hasn’t opened overseas, horrible against a $90 million budget. The domestic total is still looking at a likely $18 million or so, making this a rare 2022 bomb for Paramount.

With the holidays over, Violent Night bottomed out. The R-rated holiday action comedy fell 65% in its sixth weekend to score $741,000. That said, it’s a hit for Universal at $49.4 million domestically and $74.8 million worldwide, against a $20 million budget. It should close out around $52 million in the US.

The Menu closed out the top 10, down 35% in its eighth week with $713,000. The comedy-thriller is a hit for Searchlight with $37.7 million domestically and $74.7 million worldwide, with a $30 million budget. The final total looks to be around $40 million.

Next weekend sees the aforementioned expansion of A Man Called Otto, which should hit around $11 million, as well as the House Party remake and Gerard Butler’s survival thriller Plan. Both of those films will likely be under $10 million.

BOX OFFICE TOP TEN (Three-Day Domestic Numbers)
1. Avatar: The Way Of Water – $45 million ($516.8 million total, $1.71 billion WW)
2. M3GAN – $30.2 million ($30.2 million total, $45 million WW)
3. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish – $13.1 million ($87.7 million total, $197.4 million WW)
4. A Man Called Otto – $4.2 million ($4.3 million total, $12.7 million WW)
5. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever – $3.4 million ($445.4 million total, $827.2 million WW)
6. Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance With Somebody – $2.4 million ($19.7 million total, $41.5 million WW)
7. The Whale – $1.5 million ($8.6 million total/$8.6 million WW)
8. Babylon – $1.4 million ($13.5 million total/$13.5 million WW)
9. Violent Night – $741,000 ($49.1 million total, $74.8 million WW)
10. The Menu – $713,000 ($37.7 million total, $74.7 million WW)