411 Box Office Report: Jumanji Rules MLK Weekend, The Post Starts Well

Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle continued to roll over the competition, taking the box office crown over the four-day weekend. The blockbuster sequel brought in $27 million for the three-day weekend and an estimated $34.3 million for the four-day weekend (including Martin Luther King Day). The film was down just 27% for the three-day frame and will have $290.4 million by the end of Monday. The action-comedy is up to $290.4 million domestically once MLK Day is done and a stellar $673.4 million worldwide.

Jumanji looks to become one of the top hits of 2017 at this point. Domestically, it sits at #6 for the year while it’s at #12 worldwide. It shouldn’t have much difficulty topping Thor: Ragnarok’s $313 million and with a lack of serious competition in the coming weeks, it could get as high as $340 million. If it does that, it would be the #5 film of the year domestically. The budget was $90 million, making this a serious hit for Sony that will almost certainly led to a third film.

Coming in at #2 was Steven Spielberg’s The Post, which expanded to wide release after a few weeks in a handful of theaters. The Tom Hanks and Meryl Streep-headlined period drama brought in $18.6 million for the three-day and $22.2 million over the four-day frame. That brings its total through Monday to $26.7 million.

The film, which tells the story of the journalists from The Washington Post and The New York Times who published the Pentagon Papers in the 1970s, rode into theaters on a wave of positive buzz. The movie stands at an 88% average from critics on Rotten Tomatoes and has some great word of mouth coming its way with an A CinemaScore to boot. The movie has been recognized with several awards nominations, though actual wins have been rarer (it was shut out at the Golden Globes).

Still, that buzz has benefited the film’s box office and it should continue to do well. At this point, it should be able to make its way to at least $85 million domestically, with likely Oscar nominations putting it higher. With a $50 million budget and marketing costs, it should be able to make a profit for DreamWorks and 20th Century Fox.

The Commuter had a weaker opening than Lionsgate likely hoped, starting off at $13.5 million for the three-day weekend and $16 million through Monday. That’s not a horrible number, though. By comparison, the action-thriller beat out the $11 million opening of Neeson and Jaume Collet-Serra’s last collaboration Run All Night in March of 2015. It’s also ahead of the start for A Walk Among the Tombstones, which brought in $12.8 million in August of 2014.

These mid-range Liam Neeson thrillers are generally successful ventures for their studios, thanks to lower budgets and overseas grosses. That’s likely to be the case with The Commuter, even with critics being so-so on it (56% on RT) and audiences feeling the same (B CinemaScore). The Commuter has yet to open overseas, but domestically it should make it to $28 million to $30 million. On a $30 million budget, overseas box office should be able to push this one into the black for Lionsgate.

Star Wars: The Last Jedi was down to #4 in its fifth weekend. The movie brought in $11.3 million over the three-day weekend (off 53%) and $14.7 through Monday. That brings the Saga film up to $595 million domestically and $1.268 billion worldwide. The film is now aiming for around $625 million by the end of its domestic run. The budget was $200 million, making this a predictably huge win for Disney and Lucasfilm.

When The Greatest Showman opened, no one thought it was going to be a profitable venture due to a rough start. But since then the film has managed to hold on fantastically and it seems headed to breaking even at the least. In its fourth weekend it was down just 14% for the three-day frame to $11.8 million and will reach $14.5 million through MLK Day. That brings its domestic total to $97.3 million and its worldwide total to $198.4 million. That’s a hell of a lot for a movie that only brought in $13.4 million in its first five days. The $84 million budget seemed to make this a loser at first, but now it looks like it will be a profitable film for Fox.

Opening at #6 over the four-day frame was Paddington 2, which brought in $10.6 million over three days and $14.5 million over four-days. That’s a disappointing start for the family film, though an understandable one. The sequel was looking for a $20 million start but fell short due to a few factors. Notably, Warner Bros. only had two months to do marketing for the film after they rescued the film from The Weinstein Company in the midst of the Harvey Weinstein crisis. That meant the film got crushed in publicity by the likes of Coco and Ferdinand, leaving awareness low.

It’s an unfortunate result for a film that has been very well-liked. Critics have all liked it with 100% on Rotten Tomatoes, and the film has a great A CinemaScore. This film’s best hopes lie in positive word of mouth and international grosses, though the latter won’t help Warner Bros. as other studios have those rights. The film should be able to make it up to $40 million to $50 million domestically and with Warners on the hook for the $30 million acquisition costs and slightly more in marketing, it will probably be a money loser for the studio.

Insidious: The Last Key took a predictable fall in its second weekend, down 59% for the three-day to $12.1 million and $14.1 million for the four-day. The horror film held up better than the previous two entries; Insidious Chapter 2 was down 66% in its second frame while Insidious Chapter 3 slipped 68%. The Last Key now sits at $50.3 million domestically and $94.5 million worldwide. It should make it to $70 million to $75 million domestically and will be a hit for Universal on a small $10 million budget.

Proud Mary was DOA for Sony, as the Taraji P. Henson-led action film opened to just $10 million with an expected $11.1 million through Monday. That’s pretty well below what the studio was hoping for; pre-weekend predictions had the movie opening in the mid- to high-teens for the three-day frame. However, the film was also notably not screened for critics and as is usually the case with that, they disliked the film at 22% on Rotten Tomatoes. Audiences liked it more with a B+, which is solid and better than Atomic Blonde’s B CinemaScore.

Word of mouth aside, this one isn’t likely to finish great. It will still be profitable for Sony though, thanks to a production budget of just $14 million. It should be able to make its way to $30 million domestically, with foreign profits bringing it into the black.

Pitch Perfect 3 brought in $5.7 million in its fourth weekend, down 45%. It will have brought in $6.7 million for the four-day weekend, taking it up to $96.3 million domestically and $164 million worldwide. It’s another hit for the studio with a $110 million domestic final likely. The budget was $45 million.

Winston Churchill biopic Darkest Hour finished out the top ten with $4.5 million in three days and $5.5 million through Monday. The Gary Oldman-starrer sits at $36.3 million domestically and $55.3 million worldwide. It should make it up to $50 million and will make money on a $30 million budget.

BOX OFFICE TOP TEN (Four-Day Domestic Numbers)
1. Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle – $34.3 million ($290.4 million total)
2. The Post – $22.2 million ($26.7 million total)
3. The Commuter – $16 million ($16 million total)
4. Star Wars: The Last Jedi – $14.7 million ($595 million total)
5. The Greatest Showman – $14.5 million ($97.3 million total)
6. Paddington 2 – $14.5 million ($14.5 million total)
7. Insidious: The Last Key – $14.1 million ($50.3 million total)
8. Proud Mary – $11.1 million ($11.1 million total)
9. Pitch Perfect 3 – $6.7 million ($96.3 million total)
10. Darkest Hour – $5.5 million ($36.3 million total)