411 Box Office Report: The Exorcist: Believer Wins The Weekend With $27.2 Million

Horror reigned at the box office this weekend as The Exorcist: Believer took home the win. David Gordon Green’s legacy sequel to the iconic 1974 film claimed #1 with $27.2 million. That’s a solid start, though it is below the $30 million-plus that was expected by analysts coming into the weekend. It’s the highest start for the franchise – although context is king here, as a lot has changed in the 50 years since the first two films were released and almost 20 since the last film, the financial flop that was 2004’s Exorcist: The Beginning.

There was a lot of buzz around Believer coming into the weekend, though a lot of it was not positive. David Gordon Green carries a certain amount of baggage among horror fans for his handling of the Halloween legacy sequels, though they were hits for Blumhouse and Universal. And when reviews began coming out for Believer, they were far from positive. The film currently stands at an aggregated score of just 23% positive on Rotten Tomatoes. (Our own Jeffrey Harris’ review is here.)

But horror is one of the most critic-proof genres, so as long as the fans are happy it’s all good, right? Yeah, about that: The Exorcist: Believer is not going over well with movie-goers either. Its C CinemaScore is not out of line for the horror genre, but the 57% RT audience rating is not fantastic by any stretch. It’s far from the franchise’s worst – say hello to Exorcist II’s 9% and Exorcist: The Beginning’s 11%. But it’s also important to note that audience scores tend to be higher the opening weekend, as the people going to see it right off the bat are more generally predisposed to liking the film.

On the surface, this doesn’t look like a bad financial result. Believer cost $30 million to produce (plus marketing), and the film added $17.9 million overseas for a $45.1 million worldwide start. Even if the film drops hard (which is honestly more likely than not), it should be able to make back the production + P&A costs. But the financing on this film gets a bit stickier when you remember that Universal and Blumhouse paid out a stunning $400 million for the franchise rights and has a full trilogy on the way. There’s a lot that goes into this, but the bottom line is that for the franchise to be profitable, it has to make back that $400 million between the three films. (Exorcist: Deceiver is currently set for an April 2025 release.) And the negative reaction to this film could certainly hurt the next one, though it wouldn’t be the first horror trilogy to survive a poorly-received first entry and still turn a profit on successive sequels.

The financial math on Believer in context of the $400 million rights is all speculative and messy; getting back to the basics, the film is going to have steep competition with Taylor Swift sucking all the oxygen out of the room next week and direct competition in three weeks via Five Nights At Freddy’s. Still, barring a truly disastrous drop next weekend this one should be able to make it to $70 million domestically or more. Whether that will make it a hit or not depends on international grosses and on how the future films hold up.

PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie was down a spot to #2 as it slipped 48% from its opening weekend to $11.8 million. That’s about the same drop as 2021’s PAW Patrol: The Movie and well within expectations. The film now has $38.9 million domestically and $87.1 million worldwide, very hit numbers against a reported $30 million budget. PAW Patrol is looking likely to surpass $60 million domestically, which will be a perfectly fine result for Paramount.

Saw X had a good hold by its franchise’s standards, down 55% in its second weekend to $8.2 million. That is the best hold for a Saw film (not including Spiral which had no new competition in its second week as theaters were just starting to reopen from the pandemic) since Saw II dropped by just 47% all the way back in 2005; it’s comparable to Saw III’s 56% drop. By comparison, the standard second weekend drop for the franchise is in the mid-60% range.

Saw X currently has $32.6 million domestically and $43.9 million worldwide, good numbers against a $13 million budget. The film is still looking at a final domestic total around $55 million or so.

The Creator had a rough start last weekend, and its hopes didn’t improve at all in the second frame. The sci-fi film grossed $6.1 million, down 57%. That would be okay if it hadn’t started as low as it did – and to be clear, we mean low in comparison to its $80 million production cost. The Gareth Edwards-directed film is now at $24.9 million domestically and $61.8 million worldwide at this point and is unlikely to be able to stretch and make back its budget. A $45 million final domestic total seems likely.

Fathom Events’ The Blind had a far better than average hold for the company’s usual short-frame releases, down 28% to $3.1 million. The Phil Robertson biopic is now at $10.5 million, which is quite a good number. There’s no word on its budget and it should leave theaters soon (Fathom releases tend to be short engagements), but everyone involved is probably very happy with this.

A Haunting In Venice held on quite well in its fourth weekend, down just 25% to $2.7 million. It’s a bit late for the film to find its legs, but 20th Century Studios will take what it can get. The latest in Kenneth Branagh’s Hercule Poirot series has $35.7 million domestically and $102.6 million worldwide and is still going to have to reach to make a profit against its $60 million budget plus marketing, though it is not out of question. The film’s stateside total looks likely to be around $40 million to $45 million.

The Nun II keeps rolling on as it was off 46% in week four to $2.6 million, bringing its totals to $81.1 million domestically and $248.7 million worldwide against a $38.5 million budget. That’s particularly good considering the film hit digital this past week. Sure, it’s falling short of the first film’s numbers but is still a major hit for the studio and is aiming to end its time in theaters at around $87 million in the US.

Dumb Money slipped 35% in its second weekend of wide release, down to $2.2 million. The GameStop stock dramedy is currently aiming for a loss at $10.6 million in the US and $12 million worldwide against a $30 million budget, and probably won’t finish its domestic run with more than $16 million to $18 million barring an award season re-release when it can potentially be more properly promoted.

The Equalizer 3 was down 32% in its sixth weekend to $1.8 million. The action thriller is nearing the end of its run and sits at $88.8 million domestically and $167 million worldwide, enough for profit against a $70 million budget. The final domestic gross will be just above $90 million.

The #10 spot went to a Halloween classic in Hocus Pocus. The 1993 comedy got a re-release in 1,430 theaters by Disney and reaped a bit of benefit. Obviously, this is all just extra money (minus a small amount of marketing). The film has a lifetime total of $45.6 million domestically and $46.7 million worldwide.

Next weekend we’ll see domination from Taylor Swift as her concert film The Eras Tour arrives for a limited run. The film has already done unprecedented pre-sale business and is targeting an easy $125 million – and probably much higher.

BOX OFFICE TOP TEN (Three-Day Domestic Numbers)
1. The Exorcist: Believer – $27.2 million ($27.2 million total, $45.1 million WW)
2. PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie – $11.8 million ($38.9 million total, $87.1 million WW)
3. Saw X – $8.2 million ($32.6 million total, $43.9 million WW)
4. The Creator – $6.1 million ($24.9 million total, $61.8 million WW)
5. The Blind – $3.1 million ($10.5 million total, $10.5 million WW)
6. A Haunting In Venice – $2.7 million ($35.7 million total, $102.7 million WW)
7. The Nun II – $2.6 million ($81.1 million total, $248.7 million WW)
8. Dumb Money – $2.2 million ($10.6 million total, $12 million WW)
9. The Equalizer 3 – $1.8 million ($88.8 million total, $167 million WW)
10. Hocus Pocus – $1.5 million ($45.6 million total, $46.7 million WW)