411 Wrestling Fact or Fiction: Who Will Win this Year’s New Japan G1 Climax?

Welcome back to the 411mania Wrestling Fact or Fiction. I’m your host Jake Chambers.

The big summer wrestling tradition is almost here – New Japan’s G1 Climax! So I enlisted a couple of 411’s foremost NJPW observers to join me for a full G1 special edition: Kevin Pantoja and Jonathan Hunter!

Let’s see if they can Max the Max!

Statement #1: Zack Sabre Jr. will win this year’s G1 Climax tournament.

Kevin Pantoja: FICTION – Let me start this by saying that Zack Sabre Jr. absolutely SHOULD win the G1 Climax and then go on to win the IWGP Heavyweight Title. It’s absolutely the right move for a guy who has been nothing but great since choosing New Japan over other companies and hasn’t been rewarded with a top run. That said, it is Gedo booking the company. I do not have faith in him to make the right call. I can’t really say who I think he’ll go with instead but Gedo’s the kind of guy who would go with SANADA to do a rematch with Naito. The only other option besides ZSJ that I think works is giving Shingo another big run or going with Yota Tsuji.

Jonathan Hunter: FICTION –  I could see it being Sabre’s year given the depleted field and lack of obvious choice, but I don’t think it will be a gaijin victor. I’m calling it being one of the new Three Musketeers. Maybe I’m being optimistic.

Statement #2: In the first year without Okada in the G1 since 2011, and no Ospreay, it was a mistake to also remove long standing international crossover stars like Yano, KENTA, Ishii and Tanahashi.

Kevin Pantoja: FICTION – This promotion is in dire need of moving away from the past or the status quo and trying something new. I love Tanahashi as much as anyone but it’s time for something new. Yano was fun in the G1 but he’s an easy replacement. KENTA hasn’t really stood out in years and the only mentioned person who I’d have kept in was Ishii because he’s consistently an MVP. Outside of Ishii though, let’s keep going with the new blood. New Japan badly needs to make sure that Tsuji, Narita, Shooter, and guys like Newman and Oleg get some shine. It’s going to be a transition year or two, so let the boys develop.

Jonathan Hunter: FICTION – Fiction, but primarily because of the keyword “international.” I wonder if we in North America overestimate our importance to New Japan. It remains, primarily, a Japanese promotion booking for a Japanese audience. Other than adding Takeshita, the 2024 G1 doesn’t seem pointed at the international audience. After years of bloating and seeming refusal to actually build or push new people to the top, the G1 arguably *needs* to focus on as much fresh blood as possible. 

That said, I do question just how many G1 fixtures will not be in it. KENTA is washed, so no loss. Tanahashi still has his star power but as we all have seen, even casual observers like me, the “Ace” is physically unable to perform at the level he once did. I think losing Ishii and Yano is probably the biggest challenge. Yano provides a fun change of pace and gets the crowd involved, and Ishii always delivers in a way that would be good for some of the younger, less experienced folks. 

Statement #3: Tetsuya Naito needed to recapture the IWGP Title from Jon Moxley at Forbidden Door.

Kevin Pantoja: FICTION – Hell no. There was a small contingent of aggressive New Japan diehards who were really mad that Moxley was champion and I couldn’t understand it. There is really nobody left in Japan, so they have to resort to a broken down Naito. Let Moxley run with it for the rest of the year, bringing the title around the world, making some fun little defenses, and forcing the New Japan roster to step up if they want to take the title from the outsider. Instead, Naito put on a horrific showing at Forbidden Door and we’re likely going to be treated to several more like that since he has to carry this company on his shoulders.

Jonathan Hunter: FACT – I’ll say FACT primarily because Moxley didn’t seem like he was going to be spending any prolonged time in New Japan. Mox isn’t in the G1 (sadly, I love G1 Mox!). If Jon Moxley was going to be a significant part of the build to WrestleKingdom, sure, but he clearly wasn’t going to be. Naito, the champ, should be in the G1. Despite Tetsuya’s physical decline, he is arguably the biggest star in this year’s G1 and it’s important to have the champion in the round-robin itself. 

¡SWITCH!

Statement #4: Winning the G1 should NOT guarantee a title shot at Wrestle Kingdom show almost 5 months later.

Jonathan Hunter: FACT – The gap is the issue. Five months, almost half a year. The IWGP title can and has changed hands in the time, but that’s not the greatest thing either. The G1 winner gets a huge push regardless. Setting the win directly for a title shot gives direction to the promotion. I’m not a confident fact; I will always believe you don’t need to make EVERYTHING for a title shot just to have “stakes” or “meaning.” You can take the G1 and use it as a major rocket without “granting” the title shot. 

Kevin Pantoja: FICTION – This was kind of a tough one because while I do absolutely think the title shot coming at the biggest show of the year is great, I do feel like the five month wait is a bit much. Keeping a road to WrestleMania interesting for two or so months is tough so five is even more difficult. I don’t think New Japan has done a great job of making those five months worth watching as I’ve freely admitted that even when I was totally into the promotion, the time between the G1 and Wrestle Kingdom is hard to pay attention to. That said, I went with Fiction because I do think the winner should get something as important as the WK title shot. The best route would be to move the G1 back into the Fall so the wait isn’t as long. Ah well, even without that change, I’ll keep Ficiton because if the winner doesn’t get a shot at WK, then what? They get one at Destruction? No thank you.

Statement #5: You blame Tony Khan for the slow, painful decline in NJPW quality.

Jonathan Hunter: FICTION – … huh? No, Gedo and terrible NJPW management are responsible for the decline of New Japan. None of the major NJPW stars who have left – Okada, Switchblade, Ospreay, whoever – signed to AEW because Tony Khan threatened their families. Tony Khan didn’t force Gedo to book EVIL and the House of Torture constantly, screw over Natio for over a half decade ago, laughably try to make SANADA a top guy, or hotshot the IWGP championship. It’s all in-house failure.

Kevin Pantoja: FICTION – I feel like anyone who has read my NJPW reviews will know who is to blame for the state of New Japan. It’s Gedo. All Tony Khan has done is sign talents from New Japan and there’s nothing wrong with that. Gedo spent over a decade doing everything to make Kazuchika Okada the greatest of all time to the point where he didn’t properly push anyone else and the few foreigners who did get notable pushes (Jay White, Kenny Omega, Will Ospreay), all moved on. The company has zero bankable stars outside of a broken down Naito (another victim of Gedo’s booking but he luckily remained popular) and that’s on Gedo’s poor ability to create stars. They have been in dire trouble for a while and he’s still taking too long to make Tsuji, Umino, and co. more legitimate. Hell, he even wasted Ren Narita in House of Torture and totally ruined SHO, who could’ve been the next star of the junior heavyweights. Every problem with New Japan can be traced back to Gedo and his booking, which I’ve been saying for years.

Jake Chambers: FACT – I’ll chime in here to say that we have to at least give Gedo credit for all the amazing things he accomplished as the booker of NJPW. Booking clearly has ups and downs, we’ve never seen anyone pull off a flawless 10-year run. We can assume he also doesn’t have much power regarding contracts; he just works with what he’s got. So I don’t blame him for recently having a difficult time maintaining booking excellence with a roster of B and C level stars. He has given plenty of opportunities to the younger guys like Shota, Narita and Tsuji and they’ve been okay, but nothing mind-blowing. Does that come down to booking or just the wrestlers not being that interesting? Hard to say subjectively, but he’s clearly trying.

On the other hand, objectively we do know that Tony Khan and AEW have poached almost all of New Japan’s A level stars over the past few years. If Gedo still had the Young Bucks, Omega, Cody, Shibata, Ibushi, White, Ospreay and Okada on his roster, I’m sure he’d be doing fine. I mean, good for them for earning some big money elsewhere, but that’s a pretty startling list. Imagine if Tony Khan bought out Roman Reigns, the Usos, Seth Rollins, Brock Lesnar, John Cena, AJ Styles, Kevin Owens, Sami Zayn and Randy Orton? I’m sure even “great” Paul Levesque would have had a hard time booking the main event scene if that happened. Maybe Gedo’s current strategy is to maintain some economic stability with a B level roster rather than build up main event superstars for Tony Khan to snatch away?

Statement #6: If this G1 sucks, it’s time to cancel your NJPW World subscription for good (or not get it for the G1 again next year).

Jonathan Hunter: FICTION – Not really a big fan of making such black and white statements. I generally sub for the G1 and WK and take the rest of the year off. There’s only so much wrestling I can follow! I will say that if the the 2024 tournament was, again, 32 people and four blocks, I would have been unlikely to signup this summer. Resetting back to two blocks of ten, even if it is not the most exciting field, gives me hope. Will I sign up next year if this one ends up lousy? All depends on what next year’s looks like. 

Kevin Pantoja: FACT – It has been incredibly difficult to keep a New Japan World subscription for a while. I’ve voiced my concerns with the promotion’s quality since 2019 but the G1 usually delivered. Then, the past two interactions have been rough, often due to the bloated size meaning that some guys were in it who had no business being there. This time around, the quality of the company is still not good, yet they’ve done some good. The field is smaller, there are exciting young guys in, and it’s a good chance to do something fresh. If the G1 doesn’t deliver, there’s no real reason to keep paying for subpar content.

I’ve gotta admit that, like Kevin, I’m ready to cancel my NJPW World subscription if this year sucks. Although I like Jonothan’s subscription strategy and outlook too. Hmm… we’ll see…

Thanks to both of them for their amazing job this week!

You can find Jonathan Hunter with his always excellent comments on most major articles here at 411, but he does pop in with an article or review every now and then – like this great one about Edge’s return from retirement (we’re still waiting for Part 2!): https://411mania.com/wrestling/looking-back-at-edges-wwe-return-from-retirement/

And, of course, Kevin Pantoja reviews all the major shows across pro-wrestling – especially Stardom the past couple of years (and now Marigold), and you can feel the joy in most of those reviews like he once had for NJPW, check them out: https://411mania.com/wrestling/pantojas-marigold-summer-destiny-2024-review/

Enjoy the G1 and we’ll see you again next time!