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411’s MMA Roundtable Preview – The Ultimate Fighter 26 Finale
WELCOME:
The UFC will crown its first women’s flyweight champion at The Ultimate Fighter 26 finale! Ultimate Fighter finalists Nicco Montaño and Roxanne Modafferi, a late replacement for Sijara Eubanks, will battle for the belt in the main event! In the co-main event, Sean O’Malley makes his UFC debut against Terrion Ware. At flyweight, Barb Honchak faces late replacement Lauren Murphy. In middleweight action, Eric Spicely fights Gerald Meerschaert. Plus, DeAnna Bennet fights Melinda Fábián, Joe Soto vs. Brett Johns, and more!
THE STAFF:
Preliminary Card
UFC Fight Pass
Flyweight Bout: Gillian Robertson vs. Emily Whitmire
Fox Sports 1
Flyweight Bout: Ariel Beck vs. Shana Dobson
Catch-weight (130 lbs.) Bout: Karine Gevorgyan vs. Rachael Ostovich-Berdon
Middleweight Bout: Andrew Sanchez vs. Ryan Janes
Flyweight Bout: Christina Marks vs. Montana De La Rosa
THE MAIN CARD:
Bantamweight Bout: Joe Soto vs. Brett Johns
Jeffrey Harris: Joe Soto, Decision
Robert Winfree: Joe Soto, Submission, Round 2
Dan Plunkett: Soto, Decision
The staff picks Joe Soto, 3-0.
Flyweight Bout: DeAnna Bennett vs. Melinda Fábián
*Note:* The staff was not asked to pick this fight due to its late addition to the card.
Dan Plunkett: Bennett, Decision
Middleweight Bout: Eric Spicely vs. Gerald Meerschaert
Jeffrey Harris: Gerald Meerschaert, Submission, Round 2
Robert Winfree: Gerald Meerschaert, Decision
Dan Plunkett: Meerschaert, Decision
The staff picks Gerald Meerschaert, 3-0.
Flyweight Bout: Lauren Murphy vs. Barb Honchak
*Note:* This bout was added on Thursday when the UFC moved Honchak’s scheduled opponent Roxanne Modaferri to the main event. Due to the late notice, the staff was not asked to pick this bout.
Dan Plunkett: Honchak, Decision
Bantamweight Bout: Terrion Ware vs. Sean O’Malley
Jeffrey Harris:Terrion Ware, Decision
Robert Winfree: Terrion Ware, Decision
Dan Plunkett: O’Malley, TKO, Round 2
The staff picks Terrion Ware, 2-1.
UFC Women’s Flyweight Championship Bout: Nicco Montaño vs. Roxanne Modaferri
*Note:* Modaferri agreed on Thursday to fill in for Sijara Eubanks, who was hospitalized following weight cut issues. Due to the late change, the staff was not asked to pick this bout.
Dan Plunkett: It’s nice to see Modaferri in this spot after a long 14-year career, including a six-fight losing streak from 2010-2013 that appeared to spell the end of her relevance. A crafty grappler and an awkward but reasonably effective striker, Modaferri has put her nose to the ground and improved drastically since that unfortunate streak.
She has been in big spots before, fighting Marloes Coenen on CBS, challenging Sarah Kaufman for a championship in Strikeforce, and most recently going against Jennifer Maia for Invicta gold. She fell short in all three of those bouts, but each time she got a bit closer.
The top-seeded fighter in the tournament leading to this fight, Modaferri started off strong on the show. Although she was hittable on her feet, Modaferri showed her strong top game by taking her first two opponents to the ground and finishing them with strikes in the first round. In her semi-final bout with Sijara Eubanks, Modaferri struggled to deal with a better athlete that was more refined on her feet and at least as skilled as Modeferri on the ground. Modaferri lost each round, but she showed that even late in a losing battle, she’s still up for the challenge.
Fourteenth-seeded Montaño was one of the standout fighters of the season. Prior to the show, she had five pro fights on her record, losing two of them. However, Montaño remains unbeaten at flyweight, and she displayed real talent in defeating Lauren Murphy, Montana Stewart, and former Invicta champion Barb Honchak. Her striking was active, her takedowns were strong, and she had good control on top. As far as athleticism is concerned, she has a big advantage over Modaferri.
Montaño is a slight betting favorite, and there are many compelling reasons to pick her. I’m having a hard time picking the fight because although Montaño has the ability to control the pace and positions of the fight, there’s a solid chance Modaferri will find herself on top at some point in the fight, and when that happens Montaño will be in a bad spot. Modaferri is also a submission threat from the bottom.
Going more in Montaño’s favor, she has been training for a five-rounder for weeks, whereas Modaferri was training for a three-round fight against Honchak, and she has been known to slow down late in fights.
Ultimately, Montaño has more going in her favor.
I see the winner of this fight in a similar position to Carla Esparza when she won the strawweight title a few years ago. Esparza will forever be the first strawweight champion, but in hindsight, she had several more talented fighters gunning for her from the moment the belt was strapped around her waist.
Barring a draw or some other shenanigans, either Modaferri or Montaño will get to add the distinction of being the first female UFC flyweight champion in history, but with the likes of Valentina Shevchenko chasing after her, the winner’s reign will likely be short-lived.
Winner: Nicco Montaño, Decision
Remember to join 411’s coverage of The Ultimate Fighter Finale on Friday!
