Raphal Dos Anjos vs. Colby Covington is the Wrong Direction for UFC

In 2008, four new heavyweights made waves in the division. In short order, all rose to title contention, with one winning the heavyweight championship in his fourth professional fight. As they rose in paths parallel to one another, there were several calls for those paths to intersect.

The UFC almost gave in. They planned for Shane Carwin to fight Cain Velasquez in October 2009 before changing directions. Around the same time, there was a strong groundswell of support to match Velasquez against Junior dos Santos. But the UFC didn’t give in.

The four only competed against one another in championship matches, with one exception when dos Santos faced Carwin after Carwin’s unsuccessful title challenge. This was unequivocally the right call. None of the four’s momentum stalled on the way up, and fans were treated to a string of well-matched heavyweight title fights until all four had gotten a crack at the title. The UFC recognized that was not wise to sacrifice potential challengers in its traditionally thin heavyweight division by matching promising contenders against each other prior to fighting the champion.

That scenario ten years ago is perhaps UFC’s best show of restraint, and it produced one of the best scenarios they could have hoped for by exhibiting that restraint. They have not always been so cautious, which has been both a credit to them and knock against them. On one hand, it’s great to watch top contenders square off. On the other hand, when one top contender knocks off another, it often leaves the champion with a fresh top-level opponent.

Fast forward from the heavyweight title picture of 2008 to the welterweight title picture of 2018. Tyron Woodley sits as a champion that has defeated three of his top five contenders according to UFC’s rankings. This leaves UFC with a relatively thin pool to work with when it comes to finding Woodley title challengers. An injury following Woodley’s last title defense has allowed time for more contenders to emerge, but only two have risen above the surface.

One, former lightweight champion Rafael dos Anjos, has scored two big wins since Woodley last fought, including a decisive victory over former welterweight champion Robbie Lawler. The other, Colby Covington, bludgeoned Woodley’s last opponent, Demian Maia, during the same time period. Either contender is a suitable fight for Woodley, who noted last week that he expects to be ready to return by July. Woodley’s return timetable, if accurate, makes reports that UFC is planning a May 12 interim title fight between dos Anjos and Covington all the more baffling.

Assuming the report is accurate, the obvious intent from UFC is to bolster a UFC 224 pay-per-view card that appears primed for low sales. By doing so, they eliminate a contender from an already thin title picture, potentially delay Woodley’s return, and further degrade the idea of an interim championship. Unless either dos Santos or Covington gains significant momentum from the fight, it does not appear that this move is worth the cost.

The most likely outcome of any fight is that it will advance the career of one fighter and stall the advancement of another. In the case of dos Anjos vs. Covington, in all likelihood the winner will move forward toward a fighter with Woodley, and the loser will fall back into the pack. This creates an issue when there is no other fighter ready to emerge from the pack.

Behind dos Anjos and Covington, nobody at welterweight is quite right for the shot at Woodley. Jorge Masvidal has lost his last two fights. Kamaru Usman and Santiago Ponzinibbio will carry long win streaks into their May meeting, but neither has beaten a top ten opponent. Darren Till could get there on May 27, but he has a tall order that night named Stephen Thompson.

As it stands, dos Anjos and Covington are the two ready welterweight contenders, and UFC plans to unnecessarily eliminate one of them from contention. After the remaining contender fights Woodley, that may well leave the champion in one of two places: either sitting and waiting for a deserving contender or defending the championship against a fighter fans aren’t ready to see in that position.

The more sensible route is picking either dos Anjos or Covington to fight Woodley in July and matching the other fighter to compete against a lower ranked contender. This method does not lose a title contender (dos Anjos or Covington losing to a lower ranked contender propels that contender forward) and will not have UFC scrambling to find a new contender late in the year.

By this point last year, had earned a title shot after six consecutive victories. Then UFC pushed him to fight Jorge Masvidal last May at the risk of losing his title shot from inactivity. Maia beat Masvidal, and UFC pushed him to challenge Woodley on short notice that July. While Maia emerged from the Masvidal fight healthy enough to return two months later, there is no promise dos Anjos and Covington will be in fighting shape soon after competing in May. This could further delay Woodley’s return as he is compelled to wait for the so-called interim champion.

The UFC’s overreliance on slapping the “interim title” tag on every pay-per-view main event without an actual championship fight has cheapened the distinction. Last month, UFC promoted Luke Rockhold vs. Yoel Romero for the interim middleweight championship after champion Robert Whittaker fell out of a fight with Rockhold. The prize (which wasn’t handed out when Romero missed weight) to the winner was the honor of holding a fake championship for the four months until he could fight Whittaker. When used in this manner, interim championships amount to worthless distinctions, and fans have recognized it. The Wrestling Observer Newsletter reported that early estimates for the fight came in at just 130,000 pay-per-view buys.

Putting an interim title on the line between dos Anjos and Covington when fans expect Woodley to be healthy two months later only waters down the concept further.

As a whole, the dos Anjos vs. Covington may bring the UFC more harm and headache than the few extra pay-per-view sales are worth on May 12.

Dan Plunkett has covered MMA for 411Mania since 2008. You can reach him by email at [email protected] and follow him on Twitter @Dan_Plunkett.